Football · England National League · 30/09, 20:45

Prediction: Tamworth vs Sutton Utd

Team pages: Tamworth · Sutton Utd

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.85Total

Tamworth1.54

Sutton Utd1.32

1X2

42% 26% 32%

Tamworth Draw Sutton Utd

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Tamworth 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WDLLWLDLLW

Sutton Utd 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWWWWLLLWD

Head-to-head

Tamworth 2–1–2 Sutton Utd (5 last)

Tamworth0-1Sutton Utd
Sutton Utd2-3Tamworth
Sutton Utd1-0Tamworth
Sutton Utd1-2Tamworth
Tamworth1-1Sutton Utd

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tamworth 1473 · Sutton Utd 1505

	Tamworth	Draw	Sutton Utd
Our model	41%	27%	32%
Market	42%	25%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 2.85 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tamworth	Sutton Utd
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 2.4	1 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.3	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.6	2.3 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.4	5.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.60

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:40

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10%

Time*	1	X	2
19:39 +1’	2.15	3.60	2.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Tamworth 2–1–2 Sutton Utd

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/01/26 England National League	Tamworth	0-1 HT 0-0	Sutton Utd
13/09/25 England National League	Sutton Utd	2-3 HT 2-3	Tamworth
07/01/25 England FA Trophy	Sutton Utd	1-0 HT 0-0	Tamworth
21/12/24 England National League	Sutton Utd	1-2 HT 1-0	Tamworth
10/08/24 England National League	Tamworth	1-1 HT 0-0	Sutton Utd

Standings · England National League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Boreham Wood	9	7	2	0	23	11	23
2	Southend	9	6	2	1	23	12	20
3	Kidderminster	9	5	3	1	13	7	18
4	AFC Fylde	9	5	2	2	20	13	17
5	Harrogate Town	9	5	1	3	20	16	16
6	Sutton Utd	9	5	1	3	10	10	16
7	Yeovil	9	4	3	2	18	14	15
8	Aldershot	9	4	3	2	10	7	15
9	AFC Hornchurch	9	5	0	4	11	12	15
10	Altrincham	9	5	0	4	12	15	15
11	Worthing	9	4	2	3	17	15	14
12	Eastleigh	9	4	2	3	11	10	14
13	Halifax	9	4	1	4	14	11	13
14	Forest Green	9	4	1	4	13	14	13
15	Boston Utd	9	3	2	4	13	13	11
16	Carlisle	9	2	4	3	16	14	10
17	Barrow	9	2	3	4	11	12	9
18	Woking	9	2	3	4	10	12	9
19	Hartlepool	9	3	0	6	7	11	9
20	Wealdstone	9	2	2	5	11	15	8
21	Tamworth	9	2	2	5	16	23	8
22	Scunthorpe	9	2	1	6	11	15	7
23	Solihull Moors	9	1	1	7	9	23	4
24	Gateshead	9	1	1	7	6	20	4

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tamworth	Sutton Utd
Wealdstone	2-1 W	0-2 L
Halifax	1-4 L	1-1 D
Boreham Wood	3-3 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Tamworth (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tamworth

WDLLWLDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Wealdstone England National League	0-1	2-1	8	6	W
15/09	Southend England National League	0-0	1-3	2	1	L
12/09	Harrogate Town England National League	1-2	1-3	6	7	L
05/09	Boston Utd England National League	1-1	2-2	7	5	D
31/08	Yeovil England National League	1-1	2-3	3	1	L
28/08	Worthing England National League	0-1	3-2	8	9	W
22/08	Halifax England National League	0-3	1-4	7	4	L
15/08	AFC Fylde England National League	1-2	1-2	3	7	L
08/08	Boreham Wood England National League	1-1	3-3	2	1	D
25/04	Braintree Town England National League	2-1	5-1	10	2	W

Sutton Utd

LWWWWLLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Halifax England National League	0-0	1-1	8	5	D
15/09	Eastleigh England National League	2-0	2-1	7	7	W
12/09	Scunthorpe England National League	0-1	0-2	6	4	L
05/09	Barrow England National League	0-1	0-3	6	10	L
31/08	Wealdstone England National League	0-1	0-2	3	5	L
28/08	Gateshead England National League	0-0	1-0	4	6	W
22/08	Hartlepool England National League	2-1	2-1	4	5	W
15/08	Altrincham England National League	1-0	1-0	2	3	W
08/08	Woking England National League	1-0	3-0	1	5	W
25/04	Boreham Wood England National League	0-1	0-1	6	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tamworth vs Sutton Utd?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Tamworth win (42%). Probabilities: Tamworth 42%, draw 26%, Sutton Utd 32%.

How many goals are expected in Tamworth vs Sutton Utd?

The model expects 2.85 goals (Tamworth 1.54 · Sutton Utd 1.32), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Tamworth vs Sutton Utd?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.