Football · England National League · 10/10, 16:00

Prediction: AFC Hornchurch vs Eastleigh

Team pages: AFC Hornchurch · Eastleigh

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.72Total

AFC Hornchurch1.52

Eastleigh1.19

1X2

44% 27% 29%

AFC Hornchurch Draw Eastleigh

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

AFC Hornchurch 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

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Eastleigh 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AFC Hornchurch 1483 · Eastleigh 1477

	AFC Hornchurch	Draw	Eastleigh
Our model	44%	28%	29%
Market	45%	26%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.72 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AFC Hornchurch	Eastleigh
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.8	1.2 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.9	0.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/30/70%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.9	1.7 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.5 / 0	3.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.50

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.53
2	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.38 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.6% Pinnacle margin 6.7%

Time*	1	X	2
02:42 +6’	2.05	3.50	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:16 +572’	2.05	3.53	3.38

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · England National League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Boreham Wood	12	10	2	0	32	13	32
2	Harrogate Town	12	8	1	3	28	17	25
3	Southend	12	7	3	2	29	18	24
4	Yeovil	12	6	4	2	26	15	22
5	Worthing	12	6	3	3	22	18	21
6	Altrincham	12	7	0	5	17	18	21
7	AFC Fylde	12	6	2	4	22	18	20
8	Kidderminster	12	5	4	3	15	12	19
9	Barrow	12	5	3	4	20	15	18
10	Aldershot	12	5	3	4	17	13	18
11	Sutton Utd	12	5	3	4	14	16	18
12	AFC Hornchurch	12	6	0	6	13	19	18
13	Halifax	12	5	2	5	18	14	17
14	Carlisle	12	4	4	4	23	20	16
15	Woking	12	4	3	5	20	19	15
16	Forest Green	11	4	3	4	17	18	15
17	Eastleigh	12	4	3	5	14	18	15
18	Tamworth	12	4	2	6	20	28	14
19	Wealdstone	12	3	3	6	17	18	12
20	Boston Utd	12	3	3	6	14	21	12
21	Scunthorpe	11	3	1	7	15	19	10
22	Hartlepool	12	3	0	9	8	17	9
23	Solihull Moors	12	2	1	9	13	30	7
24	Gateshead	12	1	1	10	7	27	4

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AFC Hornchurch	Eastleigh
Harrogate Town	0-3 L	1-4 L
Aldershot	2-1 W	1-1 D
Altrincham	0-3 L	1-2 L
Scunthorpe	1-0 W	3-2 W
Woking	1-0 W	1-3 L
Carlisle	1-4 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AFC Hornchurch

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Harrogate Town England National League	0-1	0-3	5	1	L
29/09	Aldershot England National League	1-1	2-1	5	2	W
26/09	Altrincham England National League	0-1	0-3	2	3	L
19/09	Scunthorpe England National League	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
15/09	Worthing England National League	0-1	0-1	4	4	L
12/09	Halifax England National League	0-1	0-3	4	2	L
05/09	Forest Green England National League	0-1	0-1	6	4	L
31/08	Boston Utd England National League	1-2	3-2	5	2	W
28/08	Woking England National League	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
22/08	Carlisle England National League	0-1	1-4	7	1	L

Eastleigh

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Woking England National League	1-1	1-3	3	6	L
30/09	Southend England National League	0-1	1-1	6	4	D
26/09	Harrogate Town England National League	1-2	1-4	3	2	L
19/09	Carlisle England National League	1-0	1-0	5	2	W
15/09	Sutton Utd England National League	0-2	1-2	1	7	L
12/09	Boreham Wood England National League	0-0	1-1	4	2	D
04/09	Altrincham England National League	1-1	1-2	4	3	L
31/08	Aldershot England National League	0-0	1-1	6	1	D
28/08	Hartlepool England National League	0-0	1-0	6	6	W
22/08	Scunthorpe England National League	1-0	3-2	6	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AFC Hornchurch vs Eastleigh?

According to our model, the most likely result is a AFC Hornchurch win (44%). Probabilities: AFC Hornchurch 44%, draw 27%, Eastleigh 29%.

How many goals are expected in AFC Hornchurch vs Eastleigh?

The model expects 2.72 goals (AFC Hornchurch 1.52 · Eastleigh 1.19), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in AFC Hornchurch vs Eastleigh?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.