Football · England National League · 10/10, 18:30

Prediction: Forest Green vs Hartlepool

Team pages: Forest Green · Hartlepool

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.78Total

Forest Green1.82

Hartlepool0.96

1X2

57% 24% 19%

Forest Green Draw Hartlepool

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Forest Green 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WLLLWWDLDD

Hartlepool 1-0-9 (W-D-L)

LLLWLLLLLL

Head-to-head

Forest Green 3–2–1 Hartlepool (6 last)

Hartlepool2-1Forest Green
Forest Green1-0Hartlepool
Hartlepool1-1Forest Green
Forest Green1-0Hartlepool
Forest Green1-1Hartlepool
Hartlepool1-3Forest Green

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Forest Green 1473 · Hartlepool 1396

	Forest Green	Draw	Hartlepool
Our model	57%	25%	18%
Market	58%	23%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 2.78 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Forest Green (rating 1473 vs 1396).
H2H favours Forest Green: 3-2-1.
High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Forest Green	Hartlepool
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.6	0.5 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.3 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	0/50/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 6.2	2.4 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.2	3.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.60

X4.00

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)2.02

2 (+1)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.60 → 1.60	Pinn 1.65 ★
X	4.00 → 4.00	Pinn 4.05
2	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.6% Pinnacle margin 7.3%

Time*	1	X	2
02:50 +19’	1.60	4.00	4.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:43 +446’	1.63	4.09	4.63
11:35 +89’	1.65▲	4.05▼	4.52▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Forest Green 3–2–1 Hartlepool

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 England National League	Hartlepool	2-1 HT 2-0	Forest Green
06/09/25 England National League	Forest Green	1-0 HT 1-0	Hartlepool
05/05/25 England National League	Hartlepool	1-1 HT 1-0	Forest Green
28/09/24 England National League	Forest Green	1-0 HT 0-0	Hartlepool
09/04/22 England League 2	Forest Green	1-1 HT 0-0	Hartlepool
20/11/21 England League 2	Hartlepool	1-3 HT 0-3	Forest Green

Standings · England National League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Boreham Wood	12	10	2	0	32	13	32
2	Harrogate Town	12	8	1	3	28	17	25
3	Southend	12	7	3	2	29	18	24
4	Yeovil	12	6	4	2	26	15	22
5	Worthing	12	6	3	3	22	18	21
6	Altrincham	12	7	0	5	17	18	21
7	AFC Fylde	12	6	2	4	22	18	20
8	Kidderminster	12	5	4	3	15	12	19
9	Barrow	12	5	3	4	20	15	18
10	Aldershot	12	5	3	4	17	13	18
11	Sutton Utd	12	5	3	4	14	16	18
12	AFC Hornchurch	12	6	0	6	13	19	18
13	Halifax	12	5	2	5	18	14	17
14	Carlisle	12	4	4	4	23	20	16
15	Woking	12	4	3	5	20	19	15
16	Forest Green	11	4	3	4	17	18	15
17	Eastleigh	12	4	3	5	14	18	15
18	Tamworth	12	4	2	6	20	28	14
19	Wealdstone	12	3	3	6	17	18	12
20	Boston Utd	12	3	3	6	14	21	12
21	Scunthorpe	11	3	1	7	15	19	10
22	Hartlepool	12	3	0	9	8	17	9
23	Solihull Moors	12	2	1	9	13	30	7
24	Gateshead	12	1	1	10	7	27	4

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Forest Green	Hartlepool
Sutton Utd	3-3 D	1-2 L
Altrincham	1-2 L	1-2 L
Worthing	2-1 W	1-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	0 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Forest Green (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Forest Green

WLLLWWDLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/09	Wealdstone England National League	1-1	1-1	6	2	D
26/09	Sutton Utd England National League	1-0	3-3	1	7	D
19/09	Boston Utd England National League	1-1	1-3	9	4	L
15/09	Carlisle England National League	1-1	1-1	9	6	D
12/09	Gateshead England National League	1-0	4-0	5	6	W
05/09	AFC Hornchurch England National League	1-0	1-0	3	4	W
31/08	Altrincham England National League	0-0	1-2	10	4	L
28/08	AFC Fylde England National League	0-0	0-2	6	4	L
22/08	Boreham Wood England National League	0-2	0-3	2	4	L
15/08	Worthing England National League	0-1	2-1	11	4	W

Hartlepool

LLLWLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Tamworth England National League	0-1	0-1	9	0	L
29/09	Harrogate Town England National League	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
26/09	Scunthorpe England National League	1-2	1-4	5	4	L
19/09	Worthing England National League	0-1	1-3	5	4	L
16/09	Altrincham England National League	1-1	1-2	1	5	L
11/09	Kidderminster England National League	0-1	0-2	3	5	L
05/09	Woking England National League	0-0	1-0	7	3	W
01/09	Halifax England National League	0-0	0-1	7	6	L
28/08	Eastleigh England National League	0-0	0-1	5	6	L
22/08	Sutton Utd England National League	1-2	1-2	5	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Forest Green vs Hartlepool?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Forest Green win (57%). Probabilities: Forest Green 57%, draw 24%, Hartlepool 19%.

How many goals are expected in Forest Green vs Hartlepool?

The model expects 2.78 goals (Forest Green 1.82 · Hartlepool 0.96), with a 56% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Forest Green vs Hartlepool?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.