Football · England National League · 10/10, 16:00

Prediction: Tamworth vs Barrow

Team pages: Tamworth · Barrow

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.35Total

Tamworth1.65

Barrow1.71

1X2

36% 25% 39%

Tamworth Draw Barrow

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Tamworth 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWLDLLWLWW

Barrow 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DLDWDLWWWW

Head-to-head

Tamworth 0–1–2 Barrow (3 last)

Tamworth0-2Barrow
Barrow4-1Tamworth
Tamworth1-1Barrow

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tamworth 1477 · Barrow 1533

	Tamworth	Draw	Barrow
Our model	36%	25%	39%
Market	36%	25%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 3.35 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Barrow (rating 1477 vs 1533).
H2H favours Barrow: 2-1-0.
High corners: 12.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tamworth	Barrow
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 2.3	1.9 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.3	0.6 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	20/80/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 6	3.2 / 6.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.4	6.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.55

X3.60

22.38

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.98

2 (0)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.55	Pinn 2.69 ★
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.62
2	2.38 → 2.38	Pinn 2.39

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.1% Pinnacle margin 6.6%

Time*	1	X	2
02:44 +4’	2.55	3.60	2.38

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:12 +576’	2.69	3.62	2.39

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Tamworth 0–1–2 Barrow

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/07/25 UK Friendlies	Tamworth	0-2 HT 0-1	Barrow
18/04/15 England National League North	Barrow	4-1 HT 2-0	Tamworth
07/02/15 England National League North	Tamworth	1-1 HT 1-1	Barrow

Standings · England National League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Boreham Wood	12	10	2	0	32	13	32
2	Harrogate Town	12	8	1	3	28	17	25
3	Southend	12	7	3	2	29	18	24
4	Yeovil	12	6	4	2	26	15	22
5	Worthing	12	6	3	3	22	18	21
6	Altrincham	12	7	0	5	17	18	21
7	AFC Fylde	12	6	2	4	22	18	20
8	Kidderminster	12	5	4	3	15	12	19
9	Barrow	12	5	3	4	20	15	18
10	Aldershot	12	5	3	4	17	13	18
11	Sutton Utd	12	5	3	4	14	16	18
12	AFC Hornchurch	12	6	0	6	13	19	18
13	Halifax	12	5	2	5	18	14	17
14	Carlisle	12	4	4	4	23	20	16
15	Woking	12	4	3	5	20	19	15
16	Forest Green	11	4	3	4	17	18	15
17	Eastleigh	12	4	3	5	14	18	15
18	Tamworth	12	4	2	6	20	28	14
19	Wealdstone	12	3	3	6	17	18	12
20	Boston Utd	12	3	3	6	14	21	12
21	Scunthorpe	11	3	1	7	15	19	10
22	Hartlepool	12	3	0	9	8	17	9
23	Solihull Moors	12	2	1	9	13	30	7
24	Gateshead	12	1	1	10	7	27	4

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tamworth	Barrow
Sutton Utd	2-0 W	3-0 W
Aldershot	1-5 L	1-0 W
Wealdstone	2-1 W	2-1 W
Southend	1-3 L	4-2 W
Harrogate Town	1-3 L	2-2 D
Yeovil	2-3 L	1-2 L
Worthing	3-2 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 4 L	4 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Barrow (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tamworth

LWLDLLWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Hartlepool England National League	1-0	1-0	3	0	W
30/09	Sutton Utd England National League	0-0	2-0	9	5	W
26/09	Aldershot England National League	0-4	1-5	7	4	L
19/09	Wealdstone England National League	0-1	2-1	8	6	W
15/09	Southend England National League	0-0	1-3	2	1	L
12/09	Harrogate Town England National League	1-2	1-3	6	7	L
05/09	Boston Utd England National League	1-1	2-2	7	5	D
31/08	Yeovil England National League	1-1	2-3	3	1	L
28/08	Worthing England National League	0-1	3-2	8	9	W
22/08	Halifax England National League	0-3	1-4	7	4	L

Barrow

DLDWDLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Wealdstone England National League	1-1	2-1	11	9	W
29/09	Scunthorpe England National League	0-0	3-0	3	7	W
26/09	Southend England National League	0-0	4-2	6	6	W
19/09	Aldershot England National League	0-0	1-0	2	6	W
15/09	Solihull Moors England National League	0-0	0-1	6	5	L
12/09	Worthing England National League	2-0	2-2	8	6	D
05/09	Sutton Utd England National League	1-0	3-0	5	10	W
31/08	Kidderminster England National League	1-1	1-1	8	8	D
28/08	Yeovil England National League	0-0	1-2	9	4	L
22/08	Harrogate Town England National League	1-1	2-2	6	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tamworth vs Barrow?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Barrow win (39%). Probabilities: Tamworth 36%, draw 25%, Barrow 39%.

How many goals are expected in Tamworth vs Barrow?

The model expects 3.35 goals (Tamworth 1.65 · Barrow 1.71), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Tamworth vs Barrow?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.