Football · England National League · 03/10, 16:00

Prediction: Barrow vs Wealdstone

Team pages: Barrow · Wealdstone

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.02Total

Barrow1.77

Wealdstone1.25

1X2

49% 25% 26%

Barrow Draw Wealdstone

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Barrow 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LLDLDWDLWW

Wealdstone 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DLLDWLWLLW

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Barrow 1492 · Wealdstone 1483

	Barrow	Draw	Wealdstone
Our model	48%	26%	26%
Market	49%	25%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 3.02 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Barrow	Wealdstone
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.4	1.5 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.3	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/70/10%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 6.3	2.4 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0.1	3.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.90

X3.70

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.93

2 (+0.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 32.02

Under 31.77

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:58

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.90 → 1.90	Bet365 1.90
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.2%

Time*	1	X	2
00:40 +18’	1.90	3.70	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · England National League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Boreham Wood	10	8	2	0	26	11	26
2	Southend	10	6	2	2	25	16	20
3	AFC Fylde	10	6	2	2	21	13	20
4	Harrogate Town	10	6	1	3	24	17	19
5	Aldershot	10	5	3	2	15	8	18
6	Yeovil	10	5	3	2	19	14	18
7	Kidderminster	10	5	3	2	13	8	18
8	Altrincham	10	6	0	4	15	15	18
9	Worthing	10	5	2	3	19	16	17
10	Sutton Utd	10	5	2	3	13	13	17
11	AFC Hornchurch	10	5	0	5	11	15	15
12	Forest Green	10	4	2	4	16	17	14
13	Eastleigh	10	4	2	4	12	14	14
14	Halifax	10	4	1	5	15	13	13
15	Barrow	10	3	3	4	15	14	12
15	Woking	10	3	3	4	15	14	12
17	Wealdstone	10	3	2	5	15	15	11
18	Boston Utd	10	3	2	5	13	14	11
19	Carlisle	10	2	4	4	18	19	10
20	Scunthorpe	10	3	1	6	15	16	10
21	Hartlepool	10	3	0	7	8	15	9
22	Tamworth	10	2	2	6	17	28	8
23	Solihull Moors	10	1	1	8	9	26	4
24	Gateshead	10	1	1	8	6	24	4

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Barrow	Wealdstone
Worthing	2-2 D	0-1 L
Sutton Utd	3-0 W	2-0 W
Kidderminster	1-1 D	1-4 L
Harrogate Town	2-2 D	1-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 0 L	1 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Barrow (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Barrow

LLDLDWDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Southend England National League	0-0	4-2	6	6	W
19/09	Aldershot England National League	0-0	1-0	2	6	W
15/09	Solihull Moors England National League	0-0	0-1	6	5	L
12/09	Worthing England National League	2-0	2-2	8	6	D
05/09	Sutton Utd England National League	1-0	3-0	5	10	W
31/08	Kidderminster England National League	1-1	1-1	8	8	D
28/08	Yeovil England National League	0-0	1-2	9	4	L
22/08	Harrogate Town England National League	1-1	2-2	6	3	D
15/08	AFC Hornchurch England National League	0-0	1-2	8	3	L
08/08	Hartlepool England National League	0-1	0-2	5	3	L

Wealdstone

DLLDWLWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Gateshead England National League	2-0	4-0	3	4	W
19/09	Tamworth England National League	1-0	1-2	1	6	L
15/09	Halifax England National League	0-0	0-1	0	2	L
12/09	Boston Utd England National League	1-1	3-1	4	4	W
05/09	Kidderminster England National League	1-1	1-4	10	6	L
31/08	Sutton Utd England National League	1-0	2-0	3	5	W
28/08	Carlisle England National League	0-1	1-1	6	5	D
22/08	Worthing England National League	0-1	0-1	5	5	L
15/08	Harrogate Town England National League	1-1	1-3	5	0	L
08/08	AFC Fylde England National League	0-0	2-2	5	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Barrow vs Wealdstone?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Barrow win (49%). Probabilities: Barrow 49%, draw 25%, Wealdstone 26%.

How many goals are expected in Barrow vs Wealdstone?

The model expects 3.02 goals (Barrow 1.77 · Wealdstone 1.25), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Barrow vs Wealdstone?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.