Football · England National League · 03/10, 16:00

Prediction: Hartlepool vs Tamworth

Team pages: Hartlepool · Tamworth

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.02Total

Hartlepool1.61

Tamworth1.41

1X2

42% 26% 33%

Hartlepool Draw Tamworth

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Hartlepool 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

WWLLLWLLLL

Tamworth 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

DLLWLDLLWL

Head-to-head

Hartlepool 1–4–0 Tamworth (5 last)

Tamworth1-1Hartlepool
Hartlepool1-1Tamworth
Hartlepool2-2Tamworth
Hartlepool1-1Tamworth
Tamworth0-1Hartlepool

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hartlepool 1434 · Tamworth 1440

	Hartlepool	Draw	Tamworth
Our model	41%	26%	32%
Market	42%	25%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 3.02 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hartlepool	Tamworth
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.5	1.7 / 2.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.7	0.5 / 1.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	0/40/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.4	1.9 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.3	4 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.60

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:58

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.9%

Time*	1	X	2
00:40 +18’	2.20	3.60	2.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Hartlepool 1–4–0 Tamworth

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/02/26 England National League	Tamworth	1-1 HT 0-0	Hartlepool
27/09/25 England National League	Hartlepool	1-1 HT 0-0	Tamworth
11/02/25 England National League	Hartlepool	2-2 HT 1-2	Tamworth
10/12/24 England FA Trophy	Hartlepool	1-1 HT 0-0	Tamworth
20/08/24 England National League	Tamworth	0-1 HT 0-0	Hartlepool

Standings · England National League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Boreham Wood	10	8	2	0	26	11	26
2	Southend	10	6	2	2	25	16	20
3	AFC Fylde	10	6	2	2	21	13	20
4	Harrogate Town	10	6	1	3	24	17	19
5	Aldershot	10	5	3	2	15	8	18
6	Yeovil	10	5	3	2	19	14	18
7	Kidderminster	10	5	3	2	13	8	18
8	Altrincham	10	6	0	4	15	15	18
9	Worthing	10	5	2	3	19	16	17
10	Sutton Utd	10	5	2	3	13	13	17
11	AFC Hornchurch	10	5	0	5	11	15	15
12	Forest Green	10	4	2	4	16	17	14
13	Eastleigh	10	4	2	4	12	14	14
14	Halifax	10	4	1	5	15	13	13
15	Barrow	10	3	3	4	15	14	12
15	Woking	10	3	3	4	15	14	12
17	Wealdstone	10	3	2	5	15	15	11
18	Boston Utd	10	3	2	5	13	14	11
19	Carlisle	10	2	4	4	18	19	10
20	Scunthorpe	10	3	1	6	15	16	10
21	Hartlepool	10	3	0	7	8	15	9
22	Tamworth	10	2	2	6	17	28	8
23	Solihull Moors	10	1	1	8	9	26	4
24	Gateshead	10	1	1	8	6	24	4

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hartlepool	Tamworth
Worthing	1-3 L	3-2 W
Halifax	0-1 L	1-4 L
Aldershot	1-0 W	1-5 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Hartlepool (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hartlepool

WWLLLWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Scunthorpe England National League	1-2	1-4	5	4	L
19/09	Worthing England National League	0-1	1-3	5	4	L
16/09	Altrincham England National League	1-1	1-2	1	5	L
11/09	Kidderminster England National League	0-1	0-2	3	5	L
05/09	Woking England National League	0-0	1-0	7	3	W
01/09	Halifax England National League	0-0	0-1	7	6	L
28/08	Eastleigh England National League	0-0	0-1	5	6	L
22/08	Sutton Utd England National League	1-2	1-2	5	5	L
15/08	Aldershot England National League	0-0	1-0	4	2	W
08/08	Barrow England National League	1-0	2-0	2	3	W

Tamworth

DLLWLDLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Aldershot England National League	0-4	1-5	7	4	L
19/09	Wealdstone England National League	0-1	2-1	8	6	W
15/09	Southend England National League	0-0	1-3	2	1	L
12/09	Harrogate Town England National League	1-2	1-3	6	7	L
05/09	Boston Utd England National League	1-1	2-2	7	5	D
31/08	Yeovil England National League	1-1	2-3	3	1	L
28/08	Worthing England National League	0-1	3-2	8	9	W
22/08	Halifax England National League	0-3	1-4	7	4	L
15/08	AFC Fylde England National League	1-2	1-2	3	7	L
08/08	Boreham Wood England National League	1-1	3-3	2	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hartlepool vs Tamworth?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Hartlepool win (42%). Probabilities: Hartlepool 42%, draw 26%, Tamworth 33%.

How many goals are expected in Hartlepool vs Tamworth?

The model expects 3.02 goals (Hartlepool 1.61 · Tamworth 1.41), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Hartlepool vs Tamworth?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.