Football · England National League · 10/10, 13:30

Prediction: Altrincham vs Aldershot

Team pages: Altrincham · Aldershot

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.98Total

Altrincham1.69

Aldershot1.3

1X2

46% 26% 29%

Altrincham Draw Aldershot

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Altrincham 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

LWWWLWWWWL

Aldershot 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWDWWDLWLL

Head-to-head

Altrincham 2–4 Aldershot (6 last)

Aldershot2-1Altrincham
Altrincham3-2Aldershot
Altrincham1-2Aldershot
Aldershot2-1Altrincham
Aldershot2-0Altrincham
Altrincham2-1Aldershot

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Altrincham 1541 · Aldershot 1492

	Altrincham	Draw	Aldershot
Our model	46%	26%	28%
Market	46%	25%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.98 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Altrincham (rating 1541 vs 1492).
H2H favours Aldershot: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Altrincham	Aldershot
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.4	1.6 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.6	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.3	1.4 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.1	4.1 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.60

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.77

2 (+0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.69
2	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.52 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9% Pinnacle margin 7%

Time*	1	X	2
02:10 +2’	2.00	3.60	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:10 +362’	1.92	3.75	3.57
11:33 +59’	1.94▲	3.69▼	3.52▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Altrincham 2–0–4 Aldershot

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/12/25 England National League	Aldershot	2-1 HT 0-0	Altrincham
09/08/25 England National League	Altrincham	3-2 HT 2-0	Aldershot
15/03/25 England National League	Altrincham	1-2 HT 0-0	Aldershot
23/11/24 England National League	Aldershot	2-1 HT 2-0	Altrincham
17/02/24 England National League	Aldershot	2-0 HT 2-0	Altrincham
03/10/23 England National League	Altrincham	2-1 HT 1-0	Aldershot

Standings · England National League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Boreham Wood	12	10	2	0	32	13	32
2	Harrogate Town	12	8	1	3	28	17	25
3	Southend	12	7	3	2	29	18	24
4	Yeovil	12	6	4	2	26	15	22
5	Worthing	12	6	3	3	22	18	21
6	Altrincham	12	7	0	5	17	18	21
7	AFC Fylde	12	6	2	4	22	18	20
8	Kidderminster	12	5	4	3	15	12	19
9	Barrow	12	5	3	4	20	15	18
10	Aldershot	12	5	3	4	17	13	18
11	Sutton Utd	12	5	3	4	14	16	18
12	AFC Hornchurch	12	6	0	6	13	19	18
13	Halifax	12	5	2	5	18	14	17
14	Carlisle	12	4	4	4	23	20	16
15	Woking	12	4	3	5	20	19	15
16	Forest Green	11	4	3	4	17	18	15
17	Eastleigh	12	4	3	5	14	18	15
18	Tamworth	12	4	2	6	20	28	14
19	Wealdstone	12	3	3	6	17	18	12
20	Boston Utd	12	3	3	6	14	21	12
21	Scunthorpe	11	3	1	7	15	19	10
22	Hartlepool	12	3	0	9	8	17	9
23	Solihull Moors	12	2	1	9	13	30	7
24	Gateshead	12	1	1	10	7	27	4

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Altrincham	Aldershot
AFC Hornchurch	3-0 W	1-2 L
Eastleigh	2-1 W	1-1 D
Halifax	2-1 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Altrincham (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Altrincham

LWWWLWWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Boreham Wood England National League	1-0	1-3	2	7	L
29/09	Gateshead England National League	1-0	1-0	5	4	W
26/09	AFC Hornchurch England National League	1-0	3-0	12	3	W
19/09	AFC Fylde England National League	2-1	2-1	2	7	W
16/09	Hartlepool England National League	1-1	2-1	8	5	W
12/09	Woking England National League	1-3	1-5	8	3	L
04/09	Eastleigh England National League	1-1	2-1	1	3	W
31/08	Forest Green England National League	0-0	2-1	5	4	W
28/08	Halifax England National League	2-0	2-1	4	4	W
22/08	Boston Utd England National League	0-0	0-1	6	3	L

Aldershot

DWDWWDLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Carlisle England National League	0-2	1-3	4	4	L
29/09	AFC Hornchurch England National League	1-1	1-2	1	2	L
26/09	Tamworth England National League	4-0	5-1	2	4	W
19/09	Barrow England National League	0-0	0-1	8	6	L
15/09	Yeovil England National League	0-1	1-1	3	6	D
12/09	Solihull Moors England National League	0-1	2-1	2	6	W
05/09	Halifax England National League	0-0	1-0	6	3	W
31/08	Eastleigh England National League	0-0	1-1	4	1	D
28/08	Harrogate Town England National League	3-0	3-1	7	4	W
22/08	Kidderminster England National League	0-1	1-1	2	9	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Altrincham vs Aldershot?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Altrincham win (46%). Probabilities: Altrincham 46%, draw 26%, Aldershot 29%.

How many goals are expected in Altrincham vs Aldershot?

The model expects 2.98 goals (Altrincham 1.69 · Aldershot 1.3), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Altrincham vs Aldershot?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.