Football · England National League · 10/10, 16:00

Prediction: Boston Utd vs Southend

Team pages: Boston Utd · Southend

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.55Total

Boston Utd1.44

Southend2.11

1X2

25% 23% 52%

Boston Utd Draw Southend

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Boston Utd 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WLLDLDWLDL

Southend 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WLDWDWWLDW

Head-to-head

Boston Utd 1–2–1 Southend (4 last)

Boston Utd3-3Southend
Southend1-1Boston Utd
Boston Utd3-0Southend
Southend2-0Boston Utd

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Boston Utd 1451 · Southend 1542

	Boston Utd	Draw	Southend
Our model	25%	23%	52%
Market	25%	23%	52%

Estimated total (ours) 3.55 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Southend (rating 1451 vs 1542).
High corners: 12.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Boston Utd	Southend
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 2	2.5 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.8	1.3 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 6.6	2.9 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.1	3.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.60

X3.90

21.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)2.00

2 (-0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 3.7

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 12:53

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.33 → 3.60▼	Pinn 3.71
X	4.10 → 3.90▼	Bet365 3.90
2	1.60 → 1.75▲	Pinn 1.86 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.6% Pinnacle margin 6.9%

Time*	1	X	2
02:46 +3’	4.33	4.10	1.60
12:49 +4’	3.60▼	3.90▼	1.75▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:09 +400’	3.71	3.81	1.86

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Boston Utd 1–2–1 Southend

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/01/26 England National League	Boston Utd	3-3 HT 1-1	Southend
13/09/25 England National League	Southend	1-1 HT 0-0	Boston Utd
25/03/25 England National League	Boston Utd	3-0 HT 0-0	Southend
20/08/24 England National League	Southend	2-0 HT 1-0	Boston Utd

Standings · England National League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Boreham Wood	12	10	2	0	32	13	32
2	Harrogate Town	12	8	1	3	28	17	25
3	Southend	12	7	3	2	29	18	24
4	Yeovil	12	6	4	2	26	15	22
5	Worthing	12	6	3	3	22	18	21
6	Altrincham	12	7	0	5	17	18	21
7	AFC Fylde	12	6	2	4	22	18	20
8	Kidderminster	12	5	4	3	15	12	19
9	Barrow	12	5	3	4	20	15	18
10	Aldershot	12	5	3	4	17	13	18
11	Sutton Utd	12	5	3	4	14	16	18
12	AFC Hornchurch	12	6	0	6	13	19	18
13	Halifax	12	5	2	5	18	14	17
14	Carlisle	12	4	4	4	23	20	16
15	Woking	12	4	3	5	20	19	15
16	Forest Green	11	4	3	4	17	18	15
17	Eastleigh	12	4	3	5	14	18	15
18	Tamworth	12	4	2	6	20	28	14
19	Wealdstone	12	3	3	6	17	18	12
20	Boston Utd	12	3	3	6	14	21	12
21	Scunthorpe	11	3	1	7	15	19	10
22	Hartlepool	12	3	0	9	8	17	9
23	Solihull Moors	12	2	1	9	13	30	7
24	Gateshead	12	1	1	10	7	27	4

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Boston Utd	Southend
Yeovil	0-6 L	3-2 W
AFC Fylde	0-1 L	3-1 W
Woking	1-1 D	1-1 D
Tamworth	2-2 D	3-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Southend (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Boston Utd

WLLDLDWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Yeovil England National League	0-4	0-6	7	5	L
29/09	Halifax England National League	1-0	1-1	5	4	D
26/09	AFC Fylde England National League	0-0	0-1	7	5	L
19/09	Forest Green England National League	1-1	3-1	6	4	W
15/09	Woking England National League	1-0	1-1	9	3	D
12/09	Wealdstone England National League	1-1	1-3	8	4	L
05/09	Tamworth England National League	1-1	2-2	4	5	D
31/08	AFC Hornchurch England National League	2-1	2-3	10	2	L
27/08	Boreham Wood England National League	1-0	1-2	1	5	L
22/08	Altrincham England National League	0-0	1-0	9	3	W

Southend

WLDWDWWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	AFC Fylde England National League	2-1	3-1	8	2	W
30/09	Eastleigh England National League	1-0	1-1	5	4	D
26/09	Barrow England National League	0-0	2-4	5	6	L
19/09	Gateshead England National League	6-0	6-1	3	2	W
15/09	Tamworth England National League	0-0	3-1	9	1	W
12/09	Carlisle England National League	0-1	2-2	4	5	D
05/09	Yeovil England National League	0-1	3-2	9	4	W
31/08	Woking England National League	1-0	1-1	8	3	D
28/08	Kidderminster England National League	1-0	1-3	7	4	L
22/08	Solihull Moors England National League	2-1	3-1	4	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Boston Utd vs Southend?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Southend win (52%). Probabilities: Boston Utd 25%, draw 23%, Southend 52%.

How many goals are expected in Boston Utd vs Southend?

The model expects 3.55 goals (Boston Utd 1.44 · Southend 2.11), with a 56% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Boston Utd vs Southend?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.