Football · England National League · 29/09, 20:45

Prediction: AFC Hornchurch vs Aldershot

Team pages: AFC Hornchurch · Aldershot

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.56Total

AFC Hornchurch1.39

Aldershot1.18

1X2

41% 27% 31%

AFC Hornchurch Draw Aldershot

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

AFC Hornchurch 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

WWLWWLLLWL

Aldershot 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WLDWDWWDLW

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AFC Hornchurch 1489 · Aldershot 1513

	AFC Hornchurch	Draw	Aldershot
Our model	40%	29%	31%
Market	42%	26%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 2.56 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AFC Hornchurch	Aldershot
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.5	1.5 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.7	0.7 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.6	1.8 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0	4.4 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.50

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 17:56

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.20▲	Bet365 2.20
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.71
2	3.00 → 2.88▼	Pinn 3.08 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 8.8% Pinnacle margin 6.8%

Time*	1	X	2
19:35 +1’	2.10	3.50	3.00
17:54 +2’	2.20▲	3.50	2.88▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:41 +16’	2.10	3.76	3.07
18:04 +109’	2.11▲	3.71▼	3.08▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Standings · England National League

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Boreham Wood	10	8	2	0	26	11	26
2	Southend	10	6	2	2	25	16	20
3	AFC Fylde	10	6	2	2	21	13	20
4	Harrogate Town	10	6	1	3	24	17	19
5	Aldershot	10	5	3	2	15	8	18
6	Yeovil	10	5	3	2	19	14	18
7	Kidderminster	10	5	3	2	13	8	18
8	Altrincham	10	6	0	4	15	15	18
9	Worthing	10	5	2	3	19	16	17
10	Sutton Utd	10	5	2	3	13	13	17
11	AFC Hornchurch	10	5	0	5	11	15	15
12	Forest Green	10	4	2	4	16	17	14
13	Eastleigh	10	4	2	4	12	14	14
14	Halifax	10	4	1	5	15	13	13
15	Barrow	10	3	3	4	15	14	12
15	Woking	10	3	3	4	15	14	12
17	Wealdstone	10	3	2	5	15	15	11
18	Boston Utd	10	3	2	5	13	14	11
19	Carlisle	10	2	4	4	18	19	10
20	Scunthorpe	10	3	1	6	15	16	10
21	Hartlepool	10	3	0	7	8	15	9
22	Tamworth	10	2	2	6	17	28	8
23	Solihull Moors	10	1	1	8	9	26	4
24	Gateshead	10	1	1	8	6	24	4

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AFC Hornchurch	Aldershot
Halifax	0-3 L	1-0 W
Boston Utd	3-2 W	1-0 W
Barrow	2-1 W	0-1 L
Kidderminster	3-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: AFC Hornchurch (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AFC Hornchurch

WWLWWLLLWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Altrincham England National League	0-1	0-3	2	3	L
19/09	Scunthorpe England National League	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
15/09	Worthing England National League	0-1	0-1	4	4	L
12/09	Halifax England National League	0-1	0-3	4	2	L
05/09	Forest Green England National League	0-1	0-1	6	4	L
31/08	Boston Utd England National League	1-2	3-2	5	2	W
28/08	Woking England National League	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
22/08	Carlisle England National League	0-1	1-4	7	1	L
15/08	Barrow England National League	0-0	2-1	3	3	W
08/08	Kidderminster England National League	3-0	3-0	4	4	W

Aldershot

WLDWDWWDLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Tamworth England National League	4-0	5-1	2	4	W
19/09	Barrow England National League	0-0	0-1	8	6	L
15/09	Yeovil England National League	0-1	1-1	3	6	D
12/09	Solihull Moors England National League	0-1	2-1	2	6	W
05/09	Halifax England National League	0-0	1-0	6	3	W
31/08	Eastleigh England National League	0-0	1-1	4	1	D
28/08	Harrogate Town England National League	3-0	3-1	7	4	W
22/08	Kidderminster England National League	0-1	1-1	2	9	D
15/08	Hartlepool England National League	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
08/08	Boston Utd England National League	0-0	1-0	4	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AFC Hornchurch vs Aldershot?

According to our model, the most likely result is a AFC Hornchurch win (41%). Probabilities: AFC Hornchurch 41%, draw 27%, Aldershot 31%.

How many goals are expected in AFC Hornchurch vs Aldershot?

The model expects 2.56 goals (AFC Hornchurch 1.39 · Aldershot 1.18), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in AFC Hornchurch vs Aldershot?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.