Football · England National League · 29/09, 20:45

Prediction: Yeovil vs Worthing

Team pages: Yeovil · Worthing

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.18Total

Yeovil1.73

Worthing1.45

1X2

43% 25% 32%

Yeovil Draw Worthing

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Yeovil 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DDWWWLLDWW

Worthing 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLWLLDDWWW

Head-to-head

Yeovil 1–1 Worthing (2 last)

Yeovil1-3Worthing
Worthing1-2Yeovil

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Yeovil 1533 · Worthing 1513

	Yeovil	Draw	Worthing
Our model	43%	25%	31%
Market	44%	25%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 3.18 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Yeovil	Worthing
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.4	1.9 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.3	0.9 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	80/0/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 4.1	2 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.2	4.3 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.70

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.88

Under 31.93

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:36

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Pinn 2.12
X	3.70 → 3.70	Pinn 4.01 ★
2	2.88 → 2.88	Pinn 2.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.4% Pinnacle margin 6.6%

Time*	1	X	2
19:35 +1’	2.10	3.70	2.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:16 +41’	2.10	4.07	2.89
18:10 +103’	2.12▲	4.01▼	2.90▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Yeovil 1–0–1 Worthing

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/04/24 England National League South	Yeovil	1-3 HT 0-2	Worthing
21/10/23 England National League South	Worthing	1-2 HT 0-1	Yeovil

Standings · England National League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Boreham Wood	10	8	2	0	26	11	26
2	Southend	10	6	2	2	25	16	20
3	AFC Fylde	10	6	2	2	21	13	20
4	Harrogate Town	10	6	1	3	24	17	19
5	Aldershot	10	5	3	2	15	8	18
6	Yeovil	10	5	3	2	19	14	18
7	Kidderminster	10	5	3	2	13	8	18
8	Altrincham	10	6	0	4	15	15	18
9	Worthing	10	5	2	3	19	16	17
10	Sutton Utd	10	5	2	3	13	13	17
11	AFC Hornchurch	10	5	0	5	11	15	15
12	Forest Green	10	4	2	4	16	17	14
13	Eastleigh	10	4	2	4	12	14	14
14	Halifax	10	4	1	5	15	13	13
15	Barrow	10	3	3	4	15	14	12
15	Woking	10	3	3	4	15	14	12
17	Wealdstone	10	3	2	5	15	15	11
18	Boston Utd	10	3	2	5	13	14	11
19	Carlisle	10	2	4	4	18	19	10
20	Scunthorpe	10	3	1	6	15	16	10
21	Hartlepool	10	3	0	7	8	15	9
22	Tamworth	10	2	2	6	17	28	8
23	Solihull Moors	10	1	1	8	9	26	4
24	Gateshead	10	1	1	8	6	24	4

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Yeovil	Worthing
AFC Fylde	1-4 L	2-2 D
Tamworth	3-2 W	2-3 L
Barrow	2-1 W	2-2 D
Carlisle	1-1 D	3-2 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 2 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Yeovil

DDWWWLLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Kidderminster England National League	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
18/09	Solihull Moors England National League	1-0	4-1	7	4	W
15/09	Aldershot England National League	1-0	1-1	4	6	D
12/09	AFC Fylde England National League	0-2	1-4	3	4	L
05/09	Southend England National League	1-0	2-3	2	4	L
31/08	Tamworth England National League	1-1	3-2	4	1	W
28/08	Barrow England National League	0-0	2-1	3	4	W
22/08	Gateshead England National League	1-0	3-0	7	8	W
15/08	Carlisle England National League	1-0	1-1	3	4	D
08/08	Scunthorpe England National League	0-0	1-1	3	3	D

Worthing

WLWLLDDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Halifax England National League	2-1	2-1	6	5	W
19/09	Hartlepool England National League	1-0	3-1	3	4	W
15/09	AFC Hornchurch England National League	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
12/09	Barrow England National League	0-2	2-2	10	6	D
05/09	AFC Fylde England National League	1-0	2-2	2	4	D
31/08	Boreham Wood England National League	1-0	2-3	6	4	L
28/08	Tamworth England National League	1-0	2-3	3	9	L
22/08	Wealdstone England National League	1-0	1-0	7	5	W
15/08	Forest Green England National League	1-0	1-2	4	4	L
08/08	Carlisle England National League	0-1	3-2	0	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Yeovil vs Worthing?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Yeovil win (43%). Probabilities: Yeovil 43%, draw 25%, Worthing 32%.

How many goals are expected in Yeovil vs Worthing?

The model expects 3.18 goals (Yeovil 1.73 · Worthing 1.45), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Yeovil vs Worthing?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.