Football · England National League · 30/09, 20:45
Prediction: Eastleigh vs Southend
Team pages: Eastleigh · Southend
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.07Total
Eastleigh1.17
Southend1.9
1X2
Eastleigh
Draw
Southend
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 63%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Eastleigh
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Southend
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Eastleigh
1–5
Southend
(6 last)
- Southend4-1Eastleigh
- Eastleigh2-1Southend
- Eastleigh1-2Southend
- Eastleigh0-1Southend
- Southend2-0Eastleigh
- Eastleigh0-1Southend
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Eastleigh 1491 · Southend 1579
| Eastleigh | Draw | Southend | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 22% | 24% | 54% |
| Market | 22% | 24% | 54% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.07 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Southend (rating 1491 vs 1579).
- H2H favours Southend: 5-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Eastleigh | Southend | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1 | 2.3 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.3 | 1.2 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/50/10% | 50/20/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 4.2 | 2.8 / 6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0.1 | 4 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Eastleigh 1–0–5 Southend
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/01/26 England National League | Southend | 4-1 HT 1-0 | Eastleigh |
| 24/09/25 England National League | Eastleigh | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Southend |
| 22/03/25 England National League | Eastleigh | 1-2 HT 0-2 | Southend |
| 12/10/24 England FA Cup Qualification | Eastleigh | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Southend |
| 10/09/24 England National League | Southend | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Eastleigh |
| 13/01/24 England National League | Eastleigh | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Southend |
Standings · England National League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boreham Wood | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 23 | 11 | 23 |
| 2 | Southend | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 23 | 12 | 20 |
| 3 | Kidderminster | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 7 | 18 |
| 4 | AFC Fylde | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 13 | 17 |
| 5 | Harrogate Town | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 16 | 16 |
| 6 | Sutton Utd | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 16 |
| 7 | Yeovil | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 18 | 14 | 15 |
| 8 | Aldershot | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 15 |
| 9 | AFC Hornchurch | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 12 | 15 |
| 10 | Altrincham | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 15 | 15 |
| 11 | Worthing | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 15 | 14 |
| 12 | Eastleigh | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 10 | 14 |
| 13 | Halifax | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 11 | 13 |
| 14 | Forest Green | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 14 | 13 |
| 15 | Boston Utd | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 11 |
| 16 | Carlisle | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 16 | 14 | 10 |
| 17 | Barrow | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 12 | 9 |
| 18 | Woking | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 12 | 9 |
| 19 | Hartlepool | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 9 |
| 20 | Wealdstone | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 15 | 8 |
| 21 | Tamworth | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 23 | 8 |
| 22 | Scunthorpe | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 15 | 7 |
| 23 | Solihull Moors | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 9 | 23 | 4 |
| 24 | Gateshead | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 20 | 4 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Eastleigh | Southend |
|---|---|---|
| Carlisle | 1-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Altrincham | 1-2 L | 3-1 W |
| Scunthorpe | 3-2 W | 1-0 W |
| Kidderminster | 0-1 L | 1-3 L |
| Gateshead | 2-1 W | 6-1 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 2 L | 3 W 1 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Eastleigh
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Carlisle England National League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 15/09 | Sutton Utd England National League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 12/09 | Boreham Wood England National League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 04/09 | Altrincham England National League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 31/08 | Aldershot England National League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 1 | D |
| 28/08 | Hartlepool England National League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 22/08 | Scunthorpe England National League |
1-0 | 3-2 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 15/08 | Kidderminster England National League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 08/08 | Gateshead England National League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 25/04 | Scunthorpe England National League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
Southend
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Gateshead England National League |
6-0 | 6-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 15/09 | Tamworth England National League |
0-0 | 3-1 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 12/09 | Carlisle England National League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 05/09 | Yeovil England National League |
0-1 | 3-2 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 31/08 | Woking England National League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 28/08 | Kidderminster England National League |
1-0 | 1-3 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 22/08 | Solihull Moors England National League |
2-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 15/08 | Scunthorpe England National League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 11 | 5 | W |
| 08/08 | Altrincham England National League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 28/04 | Scunthorpe England National League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 8 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Eastleigh vs Southend?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Southend win (54%). Probabilities: Eastleigh 22%, draw 24%, Southend 54%.
How many goals are expected in Eastleigh vs Southend?
The model expects 3.07 goals (Eastleigh 1.17 · Southend 1.9), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Eastleigh vs Southend?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.