Football · Türkiye Super Lig · 10/10, 15:00

Prediction: Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor

Team pages: Samsunspor · Trabzonspor

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.72Total

Samsunspor1.11

Trabzonspor1.61

1X2

25% 26% 48%

Samsunspor Draw Trabzonspor

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Samsunspor 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WWLWDWLLLL

Trabzonspor 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LDWLDWLWLW

Head-to-head

Samsunspor 2–3–1 Trabzonspor (6 last)

Samsunspor0-0Trabzonspor
Samsunspor0-3Trabzonspor
Trabzonspor1-1Samsunspor
Trabzonspor2-2Samsunspor
Samsunspor2-1Trabzonspor
Samsunspor3-1Trabzonspor

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Samsunspor 1467 · Trabzonspor 1503

	Samsunspor	Draw	Trabzonspor
Our model	25%	27%	48%
Market	26%	26%	49%

Estimated total (ours) 2.72 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Samsunspor: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Samsunspor	Trabzonspor
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.8	1.7 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1	1 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/10/50%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.6	2 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.2	4.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.60

X3.60

21.91

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.82

2 (-0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.88

Under 2.751.93

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.65
2	1.91 → 1.91	Pinn 2.05 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.9% Pinnacle margin 5.1%

Time*	1	X	2
02:08 +15’	3.60	3.60	1.91

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:20 +664’	3.46	3.65	2.05

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Samsunspor 2–3–1 Trabzonspor

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/04/26 Türkiye Cup	Samsunspor	0-0 HT 0-0	Trabzonspor
07/02/26 Türkiye Super Lig	Samsunspor	0-3 HT 0-1	Trabzonspor
31/08/25 Türkiye Super Lig	Trabzonspor	1-1 HT 1-0	Samsunspor
25/05/25 Türkiye Super Lig	Trabzonspor	2-2 HT 0-1	Samsunspor
04/01/25 Türkiye Super Lig	Samsunspor	2-1 HT 1-0	Trabzonspor
04/05/24 Türkiye Super Lig	Samsunspor	3-1 HT 3-1	Trabzonspor

Standings · Türkiye Super Lig

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Amedspor	6	4	1	1	15	7	13
2	Galatasaray	6	4	1	1	13	10	13
3	Besiktas	6	4	0	2	14	7	12
4	Kocaelispor	6	4	0	2	7	4	12
5	Alanyaspor	6	3	2	1	8	6	11
6	Fenerbahce	6	3	1	2	16	6	10
7	Trabzonspor	6	3	1	2	13	5	10
8	Kasimpasa	6	2	4	0	7	5	10
9	Caykur Rizespor	6	3	1	2	7	6	10
10	Gazisehir Gaziantep FK	6	2	2	2	7	7	8
11	Corum Belediyespor	6	2	1	3	13	12	7
12	Istanbul Basaksehir	6	2	1	3	10	11	7
13	Genclerbirligi	6	2	1	3	5	13	7
14	Erzurumspor FK	6	2	1	3	3	11	7
15	Konyaspor	6	1	1	4	4	8	4
16	Samsunspor	6	1	1	4	6	12	4
17	Goztepe	6	0	3	3	11	15	3
18	Eyupspor	6	1	0	5	2	16	3

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Samsunspor	Trabzonspor
Goztepe	3-3 D	1-1 D
Istanbul Basaksehir	0-3 L	2-1 W
Galatasaray	4-1 W	4-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Trabzonspor (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Samsunspor

WWLWDWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Erzurumspor FK Türkiye Super Lig	0-1	0-1	5	5	L
12/09	Corum Belediyespor Türkiye Super Lig	1-3	1-5	8	3	L
06/09	Kocaelispor Türkiye Super Lig	0-1	0-1	4	1	L
30/08	Fenerbahce Türkiye Super Lig	0-1	0-2	1	1	L
22/08	Caykur Rizespor Türkiye Super Lig	1-0	2-0	1	2	W
17/08	Goztepe Türkiye Super Lig	2-1	3-3	4	4	D
16/05	Goztepe Türkiye Super Lig	1-0	3-0	0	7	W
09/05	Istanbul Basaksehir Türkiye Super Lig	0-2	0-3	5	4	L
02/05	Galatasaray Türkiye Super Lig	1-1	4-1	3	3	W
27/04	Alanyaspor Türkiye Super Lig	2-0	3-2	5	5	W

Trabzonspor

LDWLDWLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Galatasaray Türkiye Super Lig	3-0	4-0	1	6	W
12/09	Konyaspor Türkiye Super Lig	0-1	0-1	7	6	L
06/09	Genclerbirligi Türkiye Super Lig	3-0	5-0	6	4	W
31/08	Amedspor Türkiye Super Lig	1-1	1-2	5	7	L
23/08	Istanbul Basaksehir Türkiye Super Lig	1-1	2-1	5	7	W
15/08	Kasimpasa Türkiye Super Lig	1-0	1-1	10	2	D
17/05	Genclerbirligi Türkiye Super Lig	0-1	0-3	5	2	L
09/05	Besiktas Türkiye Super Lig	1-1	2-1	3	3	W
02/05	Goztepe Türkiye Super Lig	0-1	1-1	4	10	D
27/04	Konyaspor Türkiye Super Lig	0-2	1-2	5	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Trabzonspor win (48%). Probabilities: Samsunspor 25%, draw 26%, Trabzonspor 48%.

How many goals are expected in Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor?

The model expects 2.72 goals (Samsunspor 1.11 · Trabzonspor 1.61), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.