Football · Türkiye Super Lig · 26/10, 17:00
Prediction: Besiktas vs Istanbul Basaksehir
Team pages: Besiktas · Istanbul Basaksehir
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.59Total
Besiktas2.53
Istanbul Basaksehir1.05
1X2
Besiktas
Draw
Istanbul Basaksehir
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
2-1 9%
Recent form · 10 last
Besiktas
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Istanbul Basaksehir
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Besiktas
3–2–1
Istanbul Basaksehir
(6 last)
- Istanbul Basaksehir2-3Besiktas
- Besiktas2-1Istanbul Basaksehir
- Besiktas0-2Istanbul Basaksehir
- Istanbul Basaksehir0-0Besiktas
- Istanbul Basaksehir1-1Besiktas
- Besiktas1-0Istanbul Basaksehir
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Besiktas 1542 · Istanbul Basaksehir 1499
| Besiktas | Draw | Istanbul Basaksehir | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 69% | 18% | 13% |
| Market | 69% | 18% | 13% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.59 goals · Bet365 line 3.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Besiktas (rating 1542 vs 1499).
- H2H favours Besiktas: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Besiktas | Istanbul Basaksehir | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1.4 | 1.7 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.8 | 1 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 60/20/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.3 / 6.9 | 2.6 / 3.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.8 / 0.2 | 4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Besiktas 3–2–1 Istanbul Basaksehir
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/02/26 Türkiye Super Lig | Istanbul Basaksehir | 2-3 HT 1-1 | Besiktas |
| 13/09/25 Türkiye Super Lig | Besiktas | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Istanbul Basaksehir |
| 12/04/25 Türkiye Super Lig | Besiktas | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Istanbul Basaksehir |
| 10/11/24 Türkiye Super Lig | Istanbul Basaksehir | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Besiktas |
| 04/04/24 Türkiye Super Lig | Istanbul Basaksehir | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Besiktas |
| 12/11/23 Türkiye Super Lig | Besiktas | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Istanbul Basaksehir |
Standings · Türkiye Super Lig
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Galatasaray | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 11 | 19 |
| 2 | Amedspor | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 9 | 17 |
| 3 | Fenerbahce | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 6 | 16 |
| 4 | Trabzonspor | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 5 | 16 |
| 5 | Besiktas | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 10 | 15 |
| 6 | Corum Belediyespor | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 13 | 13 |
| 7 | Kasimpasa | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 9 | 13 |
| 8 | Kocaelispor | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 8 | 12 |
| 9 | Alanyaspor | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 12 |
| 10 | Istanbul Basaksehir | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 12 | 11 |
| 11 | Erzurumspor FK | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 11 |
| 12 | Caykur Rizespor | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 10 |
| 13 | Goztepe | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 16 | 9 |
| 14 | Gazisehir Gaziantep FK | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 8 |
| 15 | Genclerbirligi | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 16 | 8 |
| 16 | Konyaspor | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 5 |
| 17 | Samsunspor | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 19 | 4 |
| 18 | Eyupspor | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 22 | 3 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Besiktas | Istanbul Basaksehir |
|---|---|---|
| Trabzonspor | 0-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Kocaelispor | 2-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Amedspor | 2-3 L | 0-5 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 2 L | 1 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Istanbul Basaksehir (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Besiktas
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/10 | Trabzonspor Türkiye Super Lig |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 11/10 | Kocaelispor Türkiye Super Lig |
2-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 20/09 | Amedspor Türkiye Super Lig |
0-2 | 2-3 | 10 | 14 | L |
| 11/09 | Erzurumspor FK Türkiye Super Lig |
2-0 | 3-0 | 10 | 3 | W |
| 05/09 | Fenerbahce Türkiye Super Lig |
1-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 31/08 | Corum Belediyespor Türkiye Super Lig |
2-0 | 6-2 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 23/08 | Alanyaspor Türkiye Super Lig |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 0 | L |
| 16/08 | Eyupspor Türkiye Super Lig |
1-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 15/05 | Caykur Rizespor Türkiye Super Lig |
0-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 09/05 | Trabzonspor Türkiye Super Lig |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
Istanbul Basaksehir
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Gazisehir Gaziantep FK Türkiye Super Lig |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 11/10 | Konyaspor Türkiye Super Lig |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | D |
| 19/09 | Genclerbirligi Türkiye Super Lig |
2-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 13/09 | Amedspor Türkiye Super Lig |
0-1 | 0-5 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 04/09 | Galatasaray Türkiye Super Lig |
0-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 30/08 | Kasimpasa Türkiye Super Lig |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 23/08 | Trabzonspor Türkiye Super Lig |
1-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 16/08 | Kocaelispor Türkiye Super Lig |
1-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 16/05 | Gazisehir Gaziantep FK Türkiye Super Lig |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 09/05 | Samsunspor Türkiye Super Lig |
2-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Besiktas vs Istanbul Basaksehir?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Besiktas win (69%). Probabilities: Besiktas 69%, draw 18%, Istanbul Basaksehir 13%.
How many goals are expected in Besiktas vs Istanbul Basaksehir?
The model expects 3.59 goals (Besiktas 2.53 · Istanbul Basaksehir 1.05), with a 52% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Besiktas vs Istanbul Basaksehir?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.