Football · Türkiye Super Lig · 01/11, 14:00
Prediction: Istanbul Basaksehir vs Samsunspor
Team pages: Istanbul Basaksehir · Samsunspor
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.04Total
Istanbul Basaksehir1.86
Samsunspor1.18
1X2
Istanbul Basaksehir
Draw
Samsunspor
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 64%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Istanbul Basaksehir
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Samsunspor
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Istanbul Basaksehir
4–1–1
Samsunspor
(6 last)
- Istanbul Basaksehir3-0Samsunspor
- Samsunspor0-2Istanbul Basaksehir
- Istanbul Basaksehir4-0Samsunspor
- Samsunspor2-0Istanbul Basaksehir
- Istanbul Basaksehir1-0Samsunspor
- Samsunspor0-0Istanbul Basaksehir
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Istanbul Basaksehir 1507 · Samsunspor 1400
| Istanbul Basaksehir | Draw | Samsunspor | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 25% | 23% |
| Market | 52% | 26% | 23% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.04 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Istanbul Basaksehir (rating 1507 vs 1400).
- H2H favours Istanbul Basaksehir: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Istanbul Basaksehir | Samsunspor | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.5 | 1.1 / 2.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.3 | 0.7 / 1.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 40/0/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 3.9 | 1.7 / 4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0.1 | 3.4 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Istanbul Basaksehir 4–1–1 Samsunspor
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/05/26 Türkiye Super Lig | Istanbul Basaksehir | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Samsunspor |
| 14/12/25 Türkiye Super Lig | Samsunspor | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Istanbul Basaksehir |
| 01/02/25 Türkiye Super Lig | Istanbul Basaksehir | 4-0 HT 1-0 | Samsunspor |
| 18/09/24 Türkiye Super Lig | Samsunspor | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Istanbul Basaksehir |
| 03/03/24 Türkiye Super Lig | Istanbul Basaksehir | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Samsunspor |
| 22/10/23 Türkiye Super Lig | Samsunspor | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Istanbul Basaksehir |
Standings · Türkiye Super Lig
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Galatasaray | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 12 | 22 |
| 2 | Amedspor | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 10 | 20 |
| 3 | Trabzonspor | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 8 | 19 |
| 4 | Besiktas | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 10 | 18 |
| 5 | Fenerbahce | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 23 | 8 | 16 |
| 6 | Kasimpasa | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 9 | 16 |
| 7 | Kocaelispor | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 9 | 15 |
| 8 | Erzurumspor FK | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 14 |
| 9 | Corum Belediyespor | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 15 | 13 |
| 10 | Goztepe | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 16 | 12 |
| 11 | Alanyaspor | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 11 | 12 |
| 12 | Istanbul Basaksehir | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 14 | 11 |
| 13 | Caykur Rizespor | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 15 | 10 |
| 14 | Konyaspor | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 8 |
| 15 | Gazisehir Gaziantep FK | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 15 | 8 |
| 16 | Genclerbirligi | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 18 | 8 |
| 17 | Samsunspor | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 21 | 4 |
| 18 | Eyupspor | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 23 | 3 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Istanbul Basaksehir | Samsunspor |
|---|---|---|
| Amedspor | 0-5 L | 1-2 L |
| Kasimpasa | 1-1 D | 1-4 L |
| Trabzonspor | 1-2 L | 0-3 L |
| Kocaelispor | 2-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 2 L | 0 W 0 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Istanbul Basaksehir (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Istanbul Basaksehir
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/10 | Besiktas Türkiye Super Lig |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 18/10 | Gazisehir Gaziantep FK Türkiye Super Lig |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 11/10 | Konyaspor Türkiye Super Lig |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | D |
| 19/09 | Genclerbirligi Türkiye Super Lig |
2-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 13/09 | Amedspor Türkiye Super Lig |
0-1 | 0-5 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 04/09 | Galatasaray Türkiye Super Lig |
0-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 30/08 | Kasimpasa Türkiye Super Lig |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 23/08 | Trabzonspor Türkiye Super Lig |
1-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 16/08 | Kocaelispor Türkiye Super Lig |
1-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 16/05 | Gazisehir Gaziantep FK Türkiye Super Lig |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
Samsunspor
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Amedspor Türkiye Super Lig |
1-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 9 | L |
| 18/10 | Kasimpasa Türkiye Super Lig |
1-2 | 1-4 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 10/10 | Trabzonspor Türkiye Super Lig |
0-3 | 0-3 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 20/09 | Erzurumspor FK Türkiye Super Lig |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 12/09 | Corum Belediyespor Türkiye Super Lig |
1-3 | 1-5 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 06/09 | Kocaelispor Türkiye Super Lig |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 30/08 | Fenerbahce Türkiye Super Lig |
0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 22/08 | Caykur Rizespor Türkiye Super Lig |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 17/08 | Goztepe Türkiye Super Lig |
2-1 | 3-3 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 16/05 | Goztepe Türkiye Super Lig |
1-0 | 3-0 | 0 | 7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Istanbul Basaksehir vs Samsunspor?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Istanbul Basaksehir win (52%). Probabilities: Istanbul Basaksehir 52%, draw 25%, Samsunspor 23%.
How many goals are expected in Istanbul Basaksehir vs Samsunspor?
The model expects 3.04 goals (Istanbul Basaksehir 1.86 · Samsunspor 1.18), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Istanbul Basaksehir vs Samsunspor?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.