Football · Türkiye Super Lig · 30/08, 20:30

Prediction: Samsunspor vs Fenerbahce

Team pages: Samsunspor · Fenerbahce

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.14Total

Samsunspor1.13

Fenerbahce2.01

1X2

20% 23% 57%

Samsunspor Draw Fenerbahce

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Samsunspor 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

DLWWWWLWDW

Fenerbahce 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWWDLWWDLW

Head-to-head

Samsunspor 0–4–2 Fenerbahce (6 last)

Fenerbahce3-2Samsunspor
Fenerbahce2-0Samsunspor
Samsunspor0-0Fenerbahce
Fenerbahce0-0Samsunspor
Samsunspor2-2Fenerbahce
Fenerbahce1-1Samsunspor

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Samsunspor 1542 · Fenerbahce 1617

	Samsunspor	Draw	Fenerbahce
Our model	20%	23%	57%
Market	20%	22%	58%

Estimated total (ours) 3.14 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Fenerbahce (rating 1542 vs 1617).
H2H favours Fenerbahce: 2-4-0.
High corners: 11.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Samsunspor	Fenerbahce
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.7	2.5 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.9	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.1 / 4.5	3.3 / 7.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.4	5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

14.50

X4.20

21.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.77

2 (-1)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 32.02

Under 31.77

Diff.: 0.9 · xG: 3.9

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 02:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.50 → 4.50	Pinn 5.05 ★
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	1.61 → 1.60▼	Pinn 1.62

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 8.5% Pinnacle margin 5.5%

Time*	1	X	2
15:16 +5’	4.50	4.20	1.61
02:13 +14’	4.50	4.20	1.60▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:33 +1’	5.05	4.20	1.62

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Samsunspor 0–4–2 Fenerbahce

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/03/26 Türkiye Super Lig	Fenerbahce	3-2 HT 1-2	Samsunspor
06/01/26 Türkiye Super Cup	Fenerbahce	2-0 HT 1-0	Samsunspor
05/10/25 Türkiye Super Lig	Samsunspor	0-0 HT 0-0	Fenerbahce
16/03/25 Türkiye Super Lig	Fenerbahce	0-0 HT 0-0	Samsunspor
20/10/24 Türkiye Super Lig	Samsunspor	2-2 HT 0-1	Fenerbahce
21/01/24 Türkiye Super Lig	Fenerbahce	1-1 HT 1-0	Samsunspor

Standings · Türkiye Super Lig

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Genclerbirligi	2	2	0	0	3	1	6
2	Galatasaray	2	1	1	0	6	2	4
3	Samsunspor	2	1	1	0	5	3	4
4	Trabzonspor	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
5	Alanyaspor	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
5	Gazisehir Gaziantep FK	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
7	Kasimpasa	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
8	Fenerbahce	2	1	0	1	5	4	3
9	Amedspor	2	1	0	1	3	2	3
9	Istanbul Basaksehir	2	1	0	1	3	2	3
11	Kocaelispor	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
12	Besiktas	2	1	0	1	1	1	3
13	Caykur Rizespor	2	1	0	1	1	2	3
14	Goztepe	2	0	1	1	3	4	1
15	Corum Belediyespor	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
16	Eyupspor	2	0	0	2	0	2	0
17	Konyaspor	2	0	0	2	2	5	0
18	Erzurumspor FK	2	0	0	2	0	7	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Samsunspor	Fenerbahce
Caykur Rizespor	2-0 W	2-2 D
Istanbul Basaksehir	0-3 L	3-1 W
Galatasaray	4-1 W	0-3 L
Besiktas	2-1 W	1-0 W
Eyupspor	2-1 W	3-3 D
Konyaspor	2-2 D	4-2 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Samsunspor (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Samsunspor

DLWWWWLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Caykur Rizespor Türkiye Super Lig	1-0	2-0	1	2	W
17/08	Goztepe Türkiye Super Lig	2-1	3-3	4	4	D
16/05	Goztepe Türkiye Super Lig	1-0	3-0	0	7	W
09/05	Istanbul Basaksehir Türkiye Super Lig	0-2	0-3	5	4	L
02/05	Galatasaray Türkiye Super Lig	1-1	4-1	3	3	W
27/04	Alanyaspor Türkiye Super Lig	2-0	3-2	5	5	W
19/04	Besiktas Türkiye Super Lig	0-0	2-1	1	7	W
13/04	Eyupspor Türkiye Super Lig	0-1	2-1	7	8	W
09/04	Caykur Rizespor Türkiye Super Lig	0-3	1-4	11	3	L
05/04	Konyaspor Türkiye Super Lig	1-1	2-2	8	5	D

Fenerbahce

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Konyaspor Türkiye Super Lig	3-1	4-2	7	3	W
15/08	Genclerbirligi Türkiye Super Lig	1-1	1-2	12	1	L
17/05	Eyupspor Türkiye Super Lig	0-2	3-3	6	7	D
09/05	Konyaspor Türkiye Super Lig	1-0	3-0	2	4	W
02/05	Istanbul Basaksehir Türkiye Super Lig	1-1	3-1	10	4	W
26/04	Galatasaray Türkiye Super Lig	0-1	0-3	4	11	L
17/04	Caykur Rizespor Türkiye Super Lig	0-0	2-2	7	8	D
11/04	Kayserispor Türkiye Super Lig	1-0	4-0	5	5	W
05/04	Besiktas Türkiye Super Lig	0-0	1-0	10	8	W
17/03	Gazisehir Gaziantep FK Türkiye Super Lig	1-0	4-1	11	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Samsunspor vs Fenerbahce?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Fenerbahce win (57%). Probabilities: Samsunspor 20%, draw 23%, Fenerbahce 57%.

How many goals are expected in Samsunspor vs Fenerbahce?

The model expects 3.14 goals (Samsunspor 1.13 · Fenerbahce 2.01), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Samsunspor vs Fenerbahce?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.