Football · Türkiye Super Lig · 06/09, 19:00
Prediction: Kocaelispor vs Samsunspor
Team pages: Kocaelispor · Samsunspor
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.15Total
Kocaelispor1.11
Samsunspor1.04
1X2
Kocaelispor
Draw
Samsunspor
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 64%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-1 15%
Recent form · 10 last
Kocaelispor
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Samsunspor
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Kocaelispor
1–1–3
Samsunspor
(5 last)
- Samsunspor0-0Kocaelispor
- Kocaelispor0-1Samsunspor
- Samsunspor3-0Kocaelispor
- Kocaelispor1-0Samsunspor
- Samsunspor3-0Kocaelispor
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Kocaelispor 1484 · Samsunspor 1543
| Kocaelispor | Draw | Samsunspor | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 36% | 32% | 32% |
| Market | 37% | 30% | 33% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.15 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Samsunspor (rating 1484 vs 1543).
- H2H favours Samsunspor: 3-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Kocaelispor | Samsunspor | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.7 / 0.9 | 2 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.6 | 0.7 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/40/50% | 40/20/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 3.4 | 0.9 / 3.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.2 | 4.1 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Kocaelispor 1–1–3 Samsunspor
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/01/26 Türkiye Super Lig | Samsunspor | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Kocaelispor |
| 16/08/25 Türkiye Super Lig | Kocaelispor | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Samsunspor |
| 21/01/22 Türkiye 1 Lig | Samsunspor | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Kocaelispor |
| 28/08/21 Türkiye 1 Lig | Kocaelispor | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Samsunspor |
| 25/07/19 Europe Friendlies | Samsunspor | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Kocaelispor |
Standings · Türkiye Super Lig
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Galatasaray | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 7 |
| 2 | Genclerbirligi | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Besiktas | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 6 |
| 4 | Fenerbahce | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 6 |
| 5 | Amedspor | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 6 |
| 6 | Kocaelispor | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 6 |
| 7 | Caykur Rizespor | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 8 | Kasimpasa | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| 9 | Istanbul Basaksehir | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 10 | Samsunspor | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| 11 | Trabzonspor | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| 12 | Alanyaspor | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| 12 | Gazisehir Gaziantep FK | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| 14 | Eyupspor | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| 15 | Goztepe | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 1 |
| 16 | Corum Belediyespor | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 1 |
| 17 | Erzurumspor FK | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 1 |
| 18 | Konyaspor | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Kocaelispor | Samsunspor |
|---|---|---|
| Istanbul Basaksehir | 0-2 L | 0-3 L |
| Goztepe | 1-1 D | 3-3 D |
| Galatasaray | 1-1 D | 4-1 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 2 D 1 L | 1 W 1 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Kocaelispor
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08 | Konyaspor Türkiye Super Lig |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 24/08 | Amedspor Türkiye Super Lig |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 16/08 | Istanbul Basaksehir Türkiye Super Lig |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 17/05 | Antalyaspor Türkiye Super Lig |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 12 | L |
| 09/05 | Fatih Karagumruk Türkiye Super Lig |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 03/05 | Kasimpasa Türkiye Super Lig |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 26/04 | Genclerbirligi Türkiye Super Lig |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 18/04 | Goztepe Türkiye Super Lig |
0-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 12 | D |
| 12/04 | Galatasaray Türkiye Super Lig |
0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 1 | D |
| 06/04 | Istanbul Basaksehir Türkiye Super Lig |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | D |
Samsunspor
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | Fenerbahce Türkiye Super Lig |
0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 22/08 | Caykur Rizespor Türkiye Super Lig |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 17/08 | Goztepe Türkiye Super Lig |
2-1 | 3-3 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 16/05 | Goztepe Türkiye Super Lig |
1-0 | 3-0 | 0 | 7 | W |
| 09/05 | Istanbul Basaksehir Türkiye Super Lig |
0-2 | 0-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 02/05 | Galatasaray Türkiye Super Lig |
1-1 | 4-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 27/04 | Alanyaspor Türkiye Super Lig |
2-0 | 3-2 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 19/04 | Besiktas Türkiye Super Lig |
0-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 13/04 | Eyupspor Türkiye Super Lig |
0-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 8 | W |
| 09/04 | Caykur Rizespor Türkiye Super Lig |
0-3 | 1-4 | 11 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Kocaelispor vs Samsunspor?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Kocaelispor win (37%). Probabilities: Kocaelispor 37%, draw 31%, Samsunspor 33%.
How many goals are expected in Kocaelispor vs Samsunspor?
The model expects 2.15 goals (Kocaelispor 1.11 · Samsunspor 1.04), with a 53% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Kocaelispor vs Samsunspor?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.