Football · Türkiye Super Lig · 05/09, 19:00
Prediction: Fenerbahce vs Besiktas
Team pages: Fenerbahce · Besiktas
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.93Total
Fenerbahce1.78
Besiktas1.15
1X2
Fenerbahce
Draw
Besiktas
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Fenerbahce
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Besiktas
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Fenerbahce
3–3
Besiktas
(6 last)
- Fenerbahce1-0Besiktas
- Fenerbahce1-2Besiktas
- Besiktas2-3Fenerbahce
- Fenerbahce0-1Besiktas
- Besiktas1-0Fenerbahce
- Fenerbahce2-1Besiktas
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Fenerbahce 1615 · Besiktas 1547
| Fenerbahce | Draw | Besiktas | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 25% | 23% |
| Market | 51% | 25% | 24% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.93 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Fenerbahce (rating 1615 vs 1547).
- High corners: 13 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Fenerbahce | Besiktas | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.3 / 1.3 | 1.7 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.6 | 0.9 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.1 / 6.9 | 3.6 / 6.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5 / 0.2 | 4.1 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Fenerbahce 3–0–3 Besiktas
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/04/26 Türkiye Super Lig | Fenerbahce | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Besiktas |
| 23/12/25 Türkiye Cup | Fenerbahce | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Besiktas |
| 02/11/25 Türkiye Super Lig | Besiktas | 2-3 HT 2-2 | Fenerbahce |
| 04/05/25 Türkiye Super Lig | Fenerbahce | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Besiktas |
| 07/12/24 Türkiye Super Lig | Besiktas | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Fenerbahce |
| 27/04/24 Türkiye Super Lig | Fenerbahce | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Besiktas |
Standings · Türkiye Super Lig
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Galatasaray | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 7 |
| 2 | Genclerbirligi | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Besiktas | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 6 |
| 4 | Fenerbahce | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 6 |
| 5 | Kocaelispor | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 6 |
| 6 | Caykur Rizespor | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 7 | Kasimpasa | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| 8 | Istanbul Basaksehir | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 9 | Trabzonspor | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 10 | Samsunspor | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| 11 | Alanyaspor | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| 11 | Gazisehir Gaziantep FK | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| 13 | Amedspor | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 14 | Eyupspor | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| 15 | Goztepe | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 1 |
| 16 | Corum Belediyespor | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 1 |
| 17 | Erzurumspor FK | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 1 |
| 18 | Konyaspor | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Fenerbahce | Besiktas |
|---|---|---|
| Samsunspor | 2-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Eyupspor | 3-3 D | 1-0 W |
| Caykur Rizespor | 2-2 D | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 0 L | 1 W 1 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Fenerbahce
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | Samsunspor Türkiye Super Lig |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 22/08 | Konyaspor Türkiye Super Lig |
3-1 | 4-2 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 15/08 | Genclerbirligi Türkiye Super Lig |
1-1 | 1-2 | 12 | 1 | L |
| 17/05 | Eyupspor Türkiye Super Lig |
0-2 | 3-3 | 6 | 7 | D |
| 09/05 | Konyaspor Türkiye Super Lig |
1-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 02/05 | Istanbul Basaksehir Türkiye Super Lig |
1-1 | 3-1 | 10 | 4 | W |
| 26/04 | Galatasaray Türkiye Super Lig |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 11 | L |
| 17/04 | Caykur Rizespor Türkiye Super Lig |
0-0 | 2-2 | 7 | 8 | D |
| 11/04 | Kayserispor Türkiye Super Lig |
1-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 05/04 | Besiktas Türkiye Super Lig |
0-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 8 | W |
Besiktas
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08 | Corum Belediyespor Türkiye Super Lig |
2-0 | 6-2 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 23/08 | Alanyaspor Türkiye Super Lig |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 0 | L |
| 16/08 | Eyupspor Türkiye Super Lig |
1-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 15/05 | Caykur Rizespor Türkiye Super Lig |
0-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 09/05 | Trabzonspor Türkiye Super Lig |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 01/05 | Gazisehir Gaziantep FK Türkiye Super Lig |
2-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 27/04 | Fatih Karagumruk Türkiye Super Lig |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 19/04 | Samsunspor Türkiye Super Lig |
0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 10/04 | Antalyaspor Türkiye Super Lig |
3-1 | 4-2 | 10 | 3 | W |
| 05/04 | Fenerbahce Türkiye Super Lig |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 8 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Fenerbahce vs Besiktas?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Fenerbahce win (51%). Probabilities: Fenerbahce 51%, draw 25%, Besiktas 24%.
How many goals are expected in Fenerbahce vs Besiktas?
The model expects 2.93 goals (Fenerbahce 1.78 · Besiktas 1.15), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Fenerbahce vs Besiktas?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.