Football · Türkiye Super Lig · 10/10, 18:00

Prediction: Caykur Rizespor vs Fenerbahce

Team pages: Caykur Rizespor · Fenerbahce

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.1Total

Caykur Rizespor1.15

Fenerbahce1.95

1X2

21% 24% 55%

Caykur Rizespor Draw Fenerbahce

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Caykur Rizespor 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWLDWLWLWD

Fenerbahce 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWWDLWWLDW

Head-to-head

Caykur Rizespor 0–1–5 Fenerbahce (6 last)

Fenerbahce2-2Caykur Rizespor
Caykur Rizespor2-5Fenerbahce
Fenerbahce3-2Caykur Rizespor
Caykur Rizespor0-5Fenerbahce
Caykur Rizespor1-3Fenerbahce
Fenerbahce5-0Caykur Rizespor

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Caykur Rizespor 1501 · Fenerbahce 1584

	Caykur Rizespor	Draw	Fenerbahce
Our model	21%	24%	55%
Market	21%	25%	55%

Estimated total (ours) 3.1 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Fenerbahce (rating 1501 vs 1584).
H2H favours Fenerbahce: 5-1-0.
High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Caykur Rizespor	Fenerbahce
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.6	2.5 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	1.3 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.1	2.4 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.1	4.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

14.50

X3.75

21.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.90

2 (-0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
X	3.75 → 3.75	Pinn 4.03 ★
2	1.70 → 1.70	Pinn 1.74

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.7% Pinnacle margin 5.3%

Time*	1	X	2
02:57 +6’	4.50	3.75	1.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:20 +523’	4.37	4.03	1.74

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Caykur Rizespor 0–1–5 Fenerbahce

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/04/26 Türkiye Super Lig	Fenerbahce	2-2 HT 0-0	Caykur Rizespor
23/11/25 Türkiye Super Lig	Caykur Rizespor	2-5 HT 2-0	Fenerbahce
02/02/25 Türkiye Super Lig	Fenerbahce	3-2 HT 1-2	Caykur Rizespor
25/08/24 Türkiye Super Lig	Caykur Rizespor	0-5 HT 0-1	Fenerbahce
17/02/24 Türkiye Super Lig	Caykur Rizespor	1-3 HT 1-0	Fenerbahce
01/10/23 Türkiye Super Lig	Fenerbahce	5-0 HT 1-0	Caykur Rizespor

Standings · Türkiye Super Lig

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Amedspor	6	4	1	1	15	7	13
2	Galatasaray	6	4	1	1	13	10	13
3	Besiktas	6	4	0	2	14	7	12
4	Kocaelispor	6	4	0	2	7	4	12
5	Alanyaspor	6	3	2	1	8	6	11
6	Fenerbahce	6	3	1	2	16	6	10
7	Trabzonspor	6	3	1	2	13	5	10
8	Kasimpasa	6	2	4	0	7	5	10
9	Caykur Rizespor	6	3	1	2	7	6	10
10	Gazisehir Gaziantep FK	6	2	2	2	7	7	8
11	Corum Belediyespor	6	2	1	3	13	12	7
12	Istanbul Basaksehir	6	2	1	3	10	11	7
13	Genclerbirligi	6	2	1	3	5	13	7
14	Erzurumspor FK	6	2	1	3	3	11	7
15	Konyaspor	6	1	1	4	4	8	4
16	Samsunspor	6	1	1	4	6	12	4
17	Goztepe	6	0	3	3	11	15	3
18	Eyupspor	6	1	0	5	2	16	3

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Caykur Rizespor	Fenerbahce
Eyupspor	2-0 W	8-0 W
Gazisehir Gaziantep FK	2-1 W	0-0 D
Samsunspor	0-2 L	2-0 W
Konyaspor	1-0 W	4-2 W
Besiktas	2-2 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Fenerbahce (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Caykur Rizespor

LWLDWLWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Goztepe Türkiye Super Lig	0-1	2-2	3	6	D
12/09	Eyupspor Türkiye Super Lig	1-0	2-0	2	4	W
07/09	Alanyaspor Türkiye Super Lig	0-0	0-1	8	2	L
29/08	Gazisehir Gaziantep FK Türkiye Super Lig	2-0	2-1	0	3	W
22/08	Samsunspor Türkiye Super Lig	0-1	0-2	10	2	L
15/08	Konyaspor Türkiye Super Lig	0-0	1-0	7	5	W
15/05	Besiktas Türkiye Super Lig	2-0	2-2	8	5	D
09/05	Eyupspor Türkiye Super Lig	0-3	0-4	6	0	L
01/05	Konyaspor Türkiye Super Lig	1-1	3-2	1	3	W
25/04	Kayserispor Türkiye Super Lig	0-0	0-2	6	5	L

Fenerbahce

LWWDLWWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Eyupspor Türkiye Super Lig	5-0	8-0	8	2	W
14/09	Gazisehir Gaziantep FK Türkiye Super Lig	0-0	0-0	6	7	D
05/09	Besiktas Türkiye Super Lig	1-1	1-2	2	7	L
30/08	Samsunspor Türkiye Super Lig	1-0	2-0	6	1	W
22/08	Konyaspor Türkiye Super Lig	3-1	4-2	7	3	W
15/08	Genclerbirligi Türkiye Super Lig	1-1	1-2	12	1	L
17/05	Eyupspor Türkiye Super Lig	0-2	3-3	6	7	D
09/05	Konyaspor Türkiye Super Lig	1-0	3-0	2	4	W
02/05	Istanbul Basaksehir Türkiye Super Lig	1-1	3-1	10	4	W
26/04	Galatasaray Türkiye Super Lig	0-1	0-3	4	11	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Caykur Rizespor vs Fenerbahce?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Fenerbahce win (55%). Probabilities: Caykur Rizespor 21%, draw 24%, Fenerbahce 55%.

How many goals are expected in Caykur Rizespor vs Fenerbahce?

The model expects 3.1 goals (Caykur Rizespor 1.15 · Fenerbahce 1.95), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Caykur Rizespor vs Fenerbahce?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.