Football · Türkiye Super Lig · 11/10, 18:00
Prediction: Besiktas vs Kocaelispor
Team pages: Besiktas · Kocaelispor
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.53Total
Besiktas2.04
Kocaelispor0.48
1X2
Besiktas
Draw
Kocaelispor
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 54%
Not both to score 55%
Most likely score
2-0 17%
Recent form · 10 last
Besiktas
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Kocaelispor
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Besiktas
3–1–0
Kocaelispor
(4 last)
- Kocaelispor0-1Besiktas
- Kocaelispor1-1Besiktas
- Besiktas3-1Kocaelispor
- Besiktas7-1Kocaelispor
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Besiktas 1563 · Kocaelispor 1490
| Besiktas | Draw | Kocaelispor | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 74% | 20% | 7% |
| Market | 74% | 18% | 8% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.53 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Besiktas (rating 1563 vs 1490).
- H2H favours Besiktas: 3-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Besiktas | Kocaelispor | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1.1 | 0.8 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.6 | 0.3 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.4 / 6.6 | 1.6 / 3.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.6 / 0.2 | 3.5 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Besiktas 3–1–0 Kocaelispor
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/02/26 Türkiye Super Lig | Kocaelispor | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Besiktas |
| 05/02/26 Türkiye Cup | Kocaelispor | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Besiktas |
| 29/09/25 Türkiye Super Lig | Besiktas | 3-1 HT 2-0 | Kocaelispor |
| 21/07/19 Europe Friendlies | Besiktas | 7-1 HT 2-1 | Kocaelispor |
Standings · Türkiye Super Lig
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Galatasaray | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 11 | 16 |
| 2 | Amedspor | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 9 | 14 |
| 3 | Fenerbahce | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 6 | 13 |
| 4 | Trabzonspor | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 5 | 13 |
| 5 | Besiktas | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 7 | 12 |
| 6 | Kocaelispor | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 12 |
| 7 | Alanyaspor | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 12 |
| 8 | Kasimpasa | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 10 |
| 9 | Caykur Rizespor | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 10 |
| 10 | Gazisehir Gaziantep FK | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 8 |
| 11 | Genclerbirligi | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 15 | 8 |
| 12 | Erzurumspor FK | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 8 |
| 13 | Corum Belediyespor | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 12 | 7 |
| 14 | Istanbul Basaksehir | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 11 | 7 |
| 15 | Konyaspor | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 4 |
| 16 | Samsunspor | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 15 | 4 |
| 17 | Goztepe | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 15 | 3 |
| 18 | Eyupspor | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 16 | 3 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Besiktas | Kocaelispor |
|---|---|---|
| Amedspor | 2-3 L | 2-0 W |
| Gazisehir Gaziantep FK | 2-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Fatih Karagumruk | 0-0 D | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 1 L | 2 W 0 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Besiktas
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | Amedspor Türkiye Super Lig |
0-2 | 2-3 | 10 | 14 | L |
| 11/09 | Erzurumspor FK Türkiye Super Lig |
2-0 | 3-0 | 10 | 3 | W |
| 05/09 | Fenerbahce Türkiye Super Lig |
1-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 31/08 | Corum Belediyespor Türkiye Super Lig |
2-0 | 6-2 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 23/08 | Alanyaspor Türkiye Super Lig |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 0 | L |
| 16/08 | Eyupspor Türkiye Super Lig |
1-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 15/05 | Caykur Rizespor Türkiye Super Lig |
0-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 09/05 | Trabzonspor Türkiye Super Lig |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 01/05 | Gazisehir Gaziantep FK Türkiye Super Lig |
2-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 27/04 | Fatih Karagumruk Türkiye Super Lig |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | D |
Kocaelispor
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Gazisehir Gaziantep FK Türkiye Super Lig |
0-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 13/09 | Galatasaray Türkiye Super Lig |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 06/09 | Samsunspor Türkiye Super Lig |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 29/08 | Konyaspor Türkiye Super Lig |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 24/08 | Amedspor Türkiye Super Lig |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 16/08 | Istanbul Basaksehir Türkiye Super Lig |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 17/05 | Antalyaspor Türkiye Super Lig |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 12 | L |
| 09/05 | Fatih Karagumruk Türkiye Super Lig |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 03/05 | Kasimpasa Türkiye Super Lig |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 26/04 | Genclerbirligi Türkiye Super Lig |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Besiktas vs Kocaelispor?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Besiktas win (74%). Probabilities: Besiktas 74%, draw 19%, Kocaelispor 7%.
How many goals are expected in Besiktas vs Kocaelispor?
The model expects 2.53 goals (Besiktas 2.04 · Kocaelispor 0.48), with a 59% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Besiktas vs Kocaelispor?
The model gives a 55% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.