Football · Türkiye Super Lig · 26/10, 19:30
Prediction: Galatasaray vs Fenerbahce
Team pages: Galatasaray · Fenerbahce
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.38Total
Galatasaray1.8
Fenerbahce1.58
1X2
Galatasaray
Draw
Fenerbahce
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Galatasaray
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Fenerbahce
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Galatasaray
3–2–1
Fenerbahce
(6 last)
- Galatasaray3-0Fenerbahce
- Galatasaray0-2Fenerbahce
- Fenerbahce1-1Galatasaray
- Fenerbahce1-2Galatasaray
- Galatasaray0-0Fenerbahce
- Fenerbahce1-3Galatasaray
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Galatasaray 1557 · Fenerbahce 1573
| Galatasaray | Draw | Fenerbahce | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 25% | 33% |
| Market | 42% | 24% | 33% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.38 goals · Bet365 line 3.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Galatasaray: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 13.1 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Galatasaray | Fenerbahce | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 1.4 | 2.8 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.6 | 1.4 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 60/30/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.9 / 7.3 | 2.1 / 5.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.5 / 0.4 | 3.3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Galatasaray 3–2–1 Fenerbahce
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/04/26 Türkiye Super Lig | Galatasaray | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Fenerbahce |
| 10/01/26 Türkiye Super Cup | Galatasaray | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Fenerbahce |
| 01/12/25 Türkiye Super Lig | Fenerbahce | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Galatasaray |
| 02/04/25 Türkiye Cup | Fenerbahce | 1-2 HT 1-2 | Galatasaray |
| 24/02/25 Türkiye Super Lig | Galatasaray | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Fenerbahce |
| 21/09/24 Türkiye Super Lig | Fenerbahce | 1-3 HT 0-2 | Galatasaray |
Standings · Türkiye Super Lig
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Galatasaray | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 11 | 19 |
| 2 | Amedspor | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 9 | 17 |
| 3 | Fenerbahce | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 6 | 16 |
| 4 | Trabzonspor | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 5 | 16 |
| 5 | Besiktas | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 10 | 15 |
| 6 | Corum Belediyespor | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 13 | 13 |
| 7 | Kasimpasa | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 9 | 13 |
| 8 | Kocaelispor | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 8 | 12 |
| 9 | Alanyaspor | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 12 |
| 10 | Istanbul Basaksehir | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 12 | 11 |
| 11 | Erzurumspor FK | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 11 |
| 12 | Caykur Rizespor | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 10 |
| 13 | Goztepe | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 16 | 9 |
| 14 | Gazisehir Gaziantep FK | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 8 |
| 15 | Genclerbirligi | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 16 | 8 |
| 16 | Konyaspor | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 5 |
| 17 | Samsunspor | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 19 | 4 |
| 18 | Eyupspor | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 22 | 3 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Galatasaray
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Genclerbirligi Türkiye Super Lig |
0-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 1 | W |
| 09/10 | Kasimpasa Türkiye Super Lig |
1-0 | 3-1 | 8 | 7 | W |
| 19/09 | Trabzonspor Türkiye Super Lig |
0-3 | 0-4 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 13/09 | Kocaelispor Türkiye Super Lig |
0-0 | 1-0 | 16 | 4 | W |
| 04/09 | Istanbul Basaksehir Türkiye Super Lig |
1-0 | 3-2 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 29/08 | Goztepe Türkiye Super Lig |
1-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 21/08 | Erzurumspor FK Türkiye Super Lig |
3-0 | 4-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 14/08 | Corum Belediyespor Türkiye Super Lig |
0-0 | 2-2 | 8 | 2 | D |
| 17/05 | Kasimpasa Türkiye Super Lig |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 09/05 | Antalyaspor Türkiye Super Lig |
0-1 | 4-2 | 6 | 7 | W |
Fenerbahce
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Alanyaspor Türkiye Super Lig |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 10/10 | Caykur Rizespor Türkiye Super Lig |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 20/09 | Eyupspor Türkiye Super Lig |
5-0 | 8-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 14/09 | Gazisehir Gaziantep FK Türkiye Super Lig |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 7 | D |
| 05/09 | Besiktas Türkiye Super Lig |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 30/08 | Samsunspor Türkiye Super Lig |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 22/08 | Konyaspor Türkiye Super Lig |
3-1 | 4-2 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 15/08 | Genclerbirligi Türkiye Super Lig |
1-1 | 1-2 | 12 | 1 | L |
| 17/05 | Eyupspor Türkiye Super Lig |
0-2 | 3-3 | 6 | 7 | D |
| 09/05 | Konyaspor Türkiye Super Lig |
1-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Galatasaray vs Fenerbahce?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Galatasaray win (42%). Probabilities: Galatasaray 42%, draw 24%, Fenerbahce 33%.
How many goals are expected in Galatasaray vs Fenerbahce?
The model expects 3.38 goals (Galatasaray 1.8 · Fenerbahce 1.58), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Galatasaray vs Fenerbahce?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.