Football · France Division 1 Women · 31/10, 18:00
Prediction: Montpellier (W) vs Lyon (W)
Team pages: Montpellier (W) · Lyon (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.45Total
Montpellier (W)1.22
Lyon (W)3.22
1X2
Montpellier (W)
Draw
Lyon (W)
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
1-3 8%
Recent form · 10 last
Montpellier (W)
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Lyon (W)
9-1-0 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Montpellier (W)
0–6
Lyon (W)
(6 last)
- Lyon (W)3-1Montpellier (W)
- Montpellier (W)1-5Lyon (W)
- Montpellier (W)1-4Lyon (W)
- Lyon (W)4-0Montpellier (W)
- Montpellier (W)1-2Lyon (W)
- Lyon (W)4-0Montpellier (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Montpellier (W) 1464 · Lyon (W) 1684
| Montpellier (W) | Draw | Lyon (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 10% | 14% | 76% |
| Market | 3% | 5% | 92% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.45 goals · Bet365 line 5 · -0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 80%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lyon (W) (rating 1464 vs 1684).
- H2H favours Lyon (W): 6-0-0.
- High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Montpellier (W) | Lyon (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.1 | 5.3 / 0.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.4 | 2.7 / 0.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/20/30% | 90/10/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 3.4 | 4.9 / 7.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.8 / 0.1 | 3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Montpellier (W) 0–0–6 Lyon (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/05/26 France Division 1 Women | Lyon (W) | 3-1 HT 2-0 | Montpellier (W) |
| 07/11/25 France Division 1 Women | Montpellier (W) | 1-5 HT 0-3 | Lyon (W) |
| 31/01/25 France Division 1 Women | Montpellier (W) | 1-4 HT 1-3 | Lyon (W) |
| 05/10/24 France Division 1 Women | Lyon (W) | 4-0 HT 1-0 | Montpellier (W) |
| 21/01/24 France Division 1 Women | Montpellier (W) | 1-2 HT 1-2 | Lyon (W) |
| 14/01/24 France Cup Women | Lyon (W) | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Montpellier (W) |
Standings · France Division 1 Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lyon (W) | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 36 | 3 | 18 |
| 2 | PSG (W) | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 15 |
| 3 | Paris FC (W) | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 8 | 12 |
| 4 | Marseille (W) | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 11 | 12 |
| 5 | Nantes (W) | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 8 |
| 6 | Le Havre (W) | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 8 |
| 7 | Strasbourg (W) | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 13 | 7 |
| 8 | Montpellier (W) | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 6 |
| 9 | FC Fleury 91 (W) | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 5 |
| 10 | Saint Malo (W) | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 3 |
| 11 | Lens (W) | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 13 | 2 |
| 12 | Toulouse (W) | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 1 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Montpellier (W) | Lyon (W) |
|---|---|---|
| PSG (W) | 0-1 L | 4-0 W |
| Le Havre (W) | 1-1 D | 8-1 W |
| Nantes (W) | 1-1 D | 8-0 W |
| Marseille (W) | 0-0 D | 5-0 W |
| Toulouse (W) | 5-1 W | 5-0 W |
| Paris FC (W) | 0-2 L | 7-1 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 3 D 2 L | 6 W 0 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Lyon (W) (6 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Montpellier (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/10 | PSG (W) France Division 1 Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 17/10 | Le Havre (W) France Division 1 Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 03/10 | Nantes (W) France Division 1 Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 6 | D |
| 19/09 | Marseille (W) France Division 1 Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 12/09 | Saint Malo (W) France Division 1 Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 05/09 | Toulouse (W) France Division 1 Women |
5-0 | 5-1 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 06/05 | Lyon (W) France Division 1 Women |
0-2 | 1-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 25/04 | St Etienne (W) France Division 1 Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 22/04 | Paris FC (W) France Division 1 Women |
0-0 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 28/03 | Marseille (W) France Division 1 Women |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
Lyon (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Marseille (W) France Division 1 Women |
4-0 | 5-0 | 10 | 4 | W |
| 17/10 | PSG (W) France Division 1 Women |
2-0 | 4-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 03/10 | Toulouse (W) France Division 1 Women |
3-0 | 5-0 | 10 | 4 | W |
| 18/09 | Le Havre (W) France Division 1 Women |
4-0 | 8-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 12/09 | Paris FC (W) France Division 1 Women |
2-0 | 7-1 | 10 | 4 | W |
| 04/09 | FC Fleury 91 (W) France Division 1 Women |
6-1 | 7-1 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 29/05 | Paris FC (W) France Division 1 Women |
3-0 | 5-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 16/05 | Nantes (W) France Division 1 Women |
0-0 | 8-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 06/05 | Montpellier (W) France Division 1 Women |
2-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 29/04 | Nantes (W) France Division 1 Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Montpellier (W) vs Lyon (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Lyon (W) win (85%). Probabilities: Montpellier (W) 6%, draw 9%, Lyon (W) 85%.
How many goals are expected in Montpellier (W) vs Lyon (W)?
The model expects 4.45 goals (Montpellier (W) 1.22 · Lyon (W) 3.22), with a 56% chance of under 5 goals.
Will both teams score in Montpellier (W) vs Lyon (W)?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-3.