Football · Australia Capital Territory Premier League · 22/07, 11:30

Prediction: Tuggeranong Utd vs Canberra White Eagles

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.07Total

Tuggeranong Utd2.58

Canberra White Eagles1.49

1X2

61% 19% 21%

Tuggeranong Utd Draw Canberra White Eagles

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Tuggeranong Utd 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

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Canberra White Eagles 1-0-9 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Tuggeranong Utd 3–0 Canberra White Eagles (3 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tuggeranong Utd 1552 · Canberra White Eagles 1386

	Tuggeranong Utd	Draw	Canberra White Eagles
Our model	60%	19%	20%
Market	61%	18%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 4.07 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tuggeranong Utd (rating 1552 vs 1386).
H2H favours Tuggeranong Utd: 3-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 4.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tuggeranong Utd	Canberra White Eagles
Goals for / against (FT)	2.5 / 2.4	0.7 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 1.1	0.3 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	10/30/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 3.9	1.8 / 3.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.4 / 0.1	3.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.48

X5.00

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.95

2 (+1.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.93

Under 3.751.88

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 4

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.48 → 1.48	Bet365 1.48
X	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
2	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
06:59 +4’	1.48	5.00	4.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3.75

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Tuggeranong Utd 3–0–0 Canberra White Eagles

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/04/26 Australia Capital Territory Premier League	Canberra White Eagles	2-4 HT 1-3	Tuggeranong Utd
17/08/22 Australia Capital Territory NPL2	Canberra White Eagles	0-3 HT 0-1	Tuggeranong Utd
02/06/22 Australia Capital Territory Premier League	Tuggeranong Utd	2-1 HT 1-1	Canberra White Eagles

Standings · Australia Capital Territory Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Canberra Croatia FC	15	12	1	2	43	16	37
2	Monaro Panthers	15	12	0	3	53	22	36
3	Tigers FC	16	10	2	4	43	20	32
4	Canberra Juventus	14	10	0	4	32	21	30
5	Tuggeranong Utd	14	10	0	4	34	29	30
6	Queanbeyan City	14	8	1	5	30	21	25
7	Canberra Olympic	15	5	1	9	32	41	16
8	O'Connor Knights	15	5	0	10	15	30	15
9	Belconnen United	15	2	2	11	23	34	8
10	Brindabella Blues FC	14	2	0	12	7	44	6
11	Canberra White Eagles	15	1	1	13	11	45	4

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tuggeranong Utd	Canberra White Eagles
Belconnen United	1-0 W	2-1 W
Canberra Croatia FC	2-1 W	1-2 L
O'Connor Knights	3-2 W	0-2 L
Monaro Panthers	1-6 L	1-2 L
Canberra Juventus	0-5 L	1-4 L
Canberra Olympic	6-4 W	1-2 L
Tigers FC	2-1 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: Tuggeranong Utd (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Tuggeranong Utd

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/07	Belconnen United Australia Capital Territory Premier League	1-0	1-0	4	2	W
28/06	Canberra Croatia FC Australia Capital Territory Premier League	1-1	2-1	3	1	W
13/06	O'Connor Knights Australia Capital Territory Premier League	2-0	3-2	4	1	W
10/06	Monaro Panthers Australia Capital Territory Premier League	0-4	1-6	1	1	L
03/06	Belconnen United Australia Capital Territory Premier League	2-1	3-1	7	0	W
30/05	Canberra Juventus Australia Capital Territory Premier League	0-1	0-5	6	3	L
16/05	Brindabella Blues FC Australia Capital Territory Premier League	0-0	5-1	2	0	W
13/05	Canberra Croatia FC Australia Capital Territory Premier League	0-0	2-3	4	1	L
09/05	Canberra Olympic Australia Capital Territory Premier League	2-4	6-4	2	3	W
02/05	Tigers FC Australia Capital Territory Premier League	1-0	2-1	6	3	W

Canberra White Eagles

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/07	Canberra Olympic Australia Capital Territory Premier League	0-2	1-2	7	5	L
04/07	Tigers FC Australia Capital Territory Premier League	0-1	0-2	1	3	L
27/06	Queanbeyan City Australia Capital Territory Premier League	0-1	1-2	4	3	L
17/06	Canberra Croatia FC Australia Capital Territory Premier League	0-0	1-2	3	6	L
10/06	Belconnen United Australia Capital Territory Premier League	1-1	2-1	5	4	W
30/05	Monaro Panthers Australia Capital Territory Premier League	1-0	1-2	0	2	L
23/05	O'Connor Knights Australia Capital Territory Premier League	0-1	0-2	6	2	L
17/05	Canberra Juventus Australia Capital Territory Premier League	1-1	1-4	3	5	L
12/05	Queanbeyan City Australia Capital Territory Premier League	0-2	0-3	2	3	L
05/05	Canberra Croatia FC Australia Cup Qualifying	0-3	0-4	1	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tuggeranong Utd vs Canberra White Eagles?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Tuggeranong Utd win (61%). Probabilities: Tuggeranong Utd 61%, draw 19%, Canberra White Eagles 21%.

How many goals are expected in Tuggeranong Utd vs Canberra White Eagles?

The model expects 4.07 goals (Tuggeranong Utd 2.58 · Canberra White Eagles 1.49), with a 51% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Tuggeranong Utd vs Canberra White Eagles?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.