Football · Australia Capital Territory Premier League · 01/08, 09:45

Prediction: Monaro Panthers vs O'Connor Knights

Team pages: Monaro Panthers · O'Connor Knights

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.35Total

Monaro Panthers3.18

O'Connor Knights1.18

1X2

83% 11% 7%

Monaro Panthers Draw O'Connor Knights

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

3-1

Recent form · 10 last

Monaro Panthers 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

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O'Connor Knights 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Monaro Panthers 3–3 O'Connor Knights (6 last)

O'Connor Knights2-1Monaro Panthers
Monaro Panthers5-3O'Connor Knights
O'Connor Knights1-5Monaro Panthers
Monaro Panthers5-0O'Connor Knights
Monaro Panthers2-3O'Connor Knights
O'Connor Knights4-2Monaro Panthers

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Monaro Panthers 1597 · O'Connor Knights 1435

	Monaro Panthers	Draw	O'Connor Knights
Our model	76%	14%	10%
Market	88%	8%	4%

Estimated total (ours) 4.35 goals · Bet365 line 4.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 79%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Monaro Panthers (rating 1597 vs 1435).
High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Monaro Panthers	O'Connor Knights
Goals for / against (FT)	3.6 / 1.4	0.8 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.6 / 0.8	0.1 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 6	2.1 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.3	3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.06

X12.00

223.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-3.25)1.93

2 (+3.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.93

Under 4.251.88

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.9

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 05:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.09 → 1.06▼	Bet365 1.06
X	11.00 → 12.00▲	Bet365 12.00
2	17.00 → 23.00▲	Bet365 23.00

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 6.8%

Time*	1	X	2
04:09 +2’	1.09	11.00	17.00
05:10 +3’	1.06▼	12.00▲	23.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Monaro Panthers 3–0–3 O'Connor Knights

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Australia Capital Territory Premier League	O'Connor Knights	2-1 HT 1-0	Monaro Panthers
09/08/25 Australia Capital Territory Premier League	Monaro Panthers	5-3 HT 4-1	O'Connor Knights
21/06/25 Australia Capital Territory Premier League	O'Connor Knights	1-5 HT 1-1	Monaro Panthers
26/04/25 Australia Capital Territory Premier League	Monaro Panthers	5-0 HT 1-0	O'Connor Knights
27/07/24 Australia Capital Territory Premier League	Monaro Panthers	2-3 HT 1-0	O'Connor Knights
08/06/24 Australia FFA Cup Qualifying	O'Connor Knights	4-2 HT 2-1	Monaro Panthers

Standings · Australia Capital Territory Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Canberra Croatia FC	16	13	1	2	48	18	40
2	Monaro Panthers	16	13	0	3	56	22	39
3	Tigers FC	17	11	2	4	47	21	35
4	Tuggeranong Utd	16	11	0	5	37	34	33
5	Canberra Juventus	16	10	0	6	34	29	30
6	Queanbeyan City	16	8	2	6	32	25	26
7	Canberra Olympic	16	5	2	9	34	43	17
8	O'Connor Knights	16	5	1	10	16	31	16
9	Belconnen United	16	2	3	11	24	35	9
10	Brindabella Blues FC	16	3	0	13	10	46	9
11	Canberra White Eagles	17	2	1	14	14	48	7

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Monaro Panthers	O'Connor Knights
Canberra Juventus	3-0 W	0-2 L
Queanbeyan City	2-1 W	0-4 L
Brindabella Blues FC	9-0 W	0-1 L
Tigers FC	2-0 W	0-1 L
Canberra Olympic	5-2 W	1-0 W
Tuggeranong Utd	6-1 W	2-3 L
Canberra White Eagles	2-1 W	2-0 W
Canberra Croatia FC	1-4 L	1-5 L
Record vs common	7 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: Monaro Panthers (7 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Monaro Panthers

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	Canberra Juventus Australia Capital Territory Premier League	1-0	3-0	6	5	W
07/07	Queanbeyan City Australia Capital Territory Premier League	1-1	2-1	5	7	W
04/07	Brindabella Blues FC Australia Capital Territory Premier League	3-0	9-0	9	0	W
27/06	Tigers FC Australia Capital Territory Premier League	1-0	2-0	4	6	W
20/06	Canberra Olympic Australia Capital Territory Premier League	2-1	5-2	5	4	W
13/06	Queanbeyan City Australia Capital Territory Premier League	2-1	5-2	6	1	W
10/06	Tuggeranong Utd Australia Capital Territory Premier League	4-0	6-1	8	1	W
30/05	Canberra White Eagles Australia Capital Territory Premier League	0-1	2-1	9	2	W
24/05	Canberra Croatia FC Australia Capital Territory Premier League	1-3	1-4	4	6	L
20/05	Tigers FC Australia Cup Qualifying	1-1	1-3	4	3	L

O'Connor Knights

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Belconnen United Australia Capital Territory Premier League	0-1	1-1	5	6	D
11/07	Canberra Juventus Australia Capital Territory Premier League	0-1	0-2	9	2	L
27/06	Canberra Olympic Australia Capital Territory Premier League	0-0	1-0	7	4	W
20/06	Brindabella Blues FC Australia Capital Territory Premier League	0-0	0-1	15	3	L
13/06	Tuggeranong Utd Australia Capital Territory Premier League	0-2	2-3	5	1	L
10/06	Tigers FC Australia Capital Territory Premier League	0-0	0-1	2	5	L
30/05	Queanbeyan City Australia Capital Territory Premier League	0-0	0-4	3	2	L
23/05	Canberra White Eagles Australia Capital Territory Premier League	1-0	2-0	3	2	W
16/05	Canberra Croatia FC Australia Capital Territory Premier League	0-3	1-5	5	2	L
13/05	Canberra Olympic Australia Capital Territory Premier League	0-2	1-3	0	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Monaro Panthers vs O'Connor Knights?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Monaro Panthers win (83%). Probabilities: Monaro Panthers 83%, draw 11%, O'Connor Knights 7%.

How many goals are expected in Monaro Panthers vs O'Connor Knights?

The model expects 4.35 goals (Monaro Panthers 3.18 · O'Connor Knights 1.18), with a 51% chance of under 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Monaro Panthers vs O'Connor Knights?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.