Football · Australia Capital Territory Premier League · 01/08, 06:30

Prediction: Canberra Olympic vs Tuggeranong Utd

Team pages: Canberra Olympic · Tuggeranong Utd

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.28Total

Canberra Olympic2.14

Tuggeranong Utd2.14

1X2

39% 22% 39%

Canberra Olympic Draw Tuggeranong Utd

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 63%

Most likely score

2-2

Recent form · 10 last

Canberra Olympic 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WLDWLLLLWD

Tuggeranong Utd 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

LWLWLWWWWL

Head-to-head

Canberra Olympic 0–6 Tuggeranong Utd (6 last)

Tuggeranong Utd6-4Canberra Olympic
Tuggeranong Utd3-0Canberra Olympic
Tuggeranong Utd4-1Canberra Olympic
Tuggeranong Utd1-0Canberra Olympic
Canberra Olympic1-2Tuggeranong Utd
Tuggeranong Utd1-0Canberra Olympic

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Canberra Olympic 1462 · Tuggeranong Utd 1525

	Canberra Olympic	Draw	Tuggeranong Utd
Our model	39%	21%	39%
Market	39%	22%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 4.28 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tuggeranong Utd (rating 1462 vs 1525).
H2H favours Tuggeranong Utd: 6-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Canberra Olympic	Tuggeranong Utd
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 2.3	2 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.8	0.7 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.2	2.8 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.4	1.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.30

X4.10

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.88

Under 3.751.93

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 4.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
03:47 +23’	2.30	4.10	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Canberra Olympic 0–0–6 Tuggeranong Utd

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Australia Capital Territory Premier League	Tuggeranong Utd	6-4 HT 2-4	Canberra Olympic
03/04/25 Australia FFA Cup Qualifying	Tuggeranong Utd	3-0 HT 1-0	Canberra Olympic
18/08/24 Australia Capital Territory Premier League	Tuggeranong Utd	4-1 HT 1-1	Canberra Olympic
23/06/24 Australia Capital Territory Premier League	Tuggeranong Utd	1-0 HT 0-0	Canberra Olympic
04/05/24 Australia Capital Territory Premier League	Canberra Olympic	1-2 HT 1-0	Tuggeranong Utd
12/08/23 Australia Capital Territory Premier League	Tuggeranong Utd	1-0 HT 0-0	Canberra Olympic

Standings · Australia Capital Territory Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Canberra Croatia FC	16	13	1	2	48	18	40
2	Monaro Panthers	16	13	0	3	56	22	39
3	Tigers FC	17	11	2	4	47	21	35
4	Tuggeranong Utd	16	11	0	5	37	34	33
5	Canberra Juventus	16	10	0	6	34	29	30
6	Queanbeyan City	16	8	2	6	32	25	26
7	Canberra Olympic	16	5	2	9	34	43	17
8	O'Connor Knights	16	5	1	10	16	31	16
9	Belconnen United	16	2	3	11	24	35	9
10	Brindabella Blues FC	16	3	0	13	10	46	9
11	Canberra White Eagles	17	2	1	14	14	48	7

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Canberra Olympic	Tuggeranong Utd
Canberra White Eagles	2-1 W	2-1 W
Canberra Croatia FC	0-3 L	2-1 W
O'Connor Knights	0-1 L	3-2 W
Monaro Panthers	2-5 L	1-6 L
Canberra Juventus	2-3 L	0-5 L
Brindabella Blues FC	3-0 W	5-1 W
Belconnen United	4-4 D	1-0 W
Tigers FC	2-3 L	1-4 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 5 L	5 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Tuggeranong Utd (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Canberra Olympic

WLDWLLLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Queanbeyan City Australia Capital Territory Premier League	1-1	2-2	4	3	D
11/07	Canberra White Eagles Australia Capital Territory Premier League	2-0	2-1	5	5	W
05/07	Canberra Croatia FC Australia Capital Territory Premier League	0-1	0-3	1	2	L
27/06	O'Connor Knights Australia Capital Territory Premier League	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
20/06	Monaro Panthers Australia Capital Territory Premier League	1-2	2-5	2	4	L
10/06	Canberra Juventus Australia Capital Territory Premier League	0-2	2-3	2	15	L
30/05	Brindabella Blues FC Australia Capital Territory Premier League	0-0	3-0	8	3	W
23/05	Belconnen United Australia Capital Territory Premier League	2-2	4-4	6	3	D
16/05	Tigers FC Australia Capital Territory Premier League	1-0	2-3	3	4	L
13/05	O'Connor Knights Australia Capital Territory Premier League	2-0	3-1	6	4	W

Tuggeranong Utd

LWLWLWWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Tigers FC Australia Capital Territory Premier League	0-2	1-4	6	2	L
22/07	Canberra White Eagles Australia Capital Territory Premier League	1-1	2-1	5	4	W
11/07	Belconnen United Australia Capital Territory Premier League	1-0	1-0	4	2	W
28/06	Canberra Croatia FC Australia Capital Territory Premier League	1-1	2-1	3	1	W
13/06	O'Connor Knights Australia Capital Territory Premier League	2-0	3-2	4	1	W
10/06	Monaro Panthers Australia Capital Territory Premier League	0-4	1-6	1	1	L
03/06	Belconnen United Australia Capital Territory Premier League	2-1	3-1	7	0	W
30/05	Canberra Juventus Australia Capital Territory Premier League	0-1	0-5	6	3	L
16/05	Brindabella Blues FC Australia Capital Territory Premier League	0-0	5-1	2	0	W
13/05	Canberra Croatia FC Australia Capital Territory Premier League	0-0	2-3	4	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Canberra Olympic vs Tuggeranong Utd?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Canberra Olympic win (39%). Probabilities: Canberra Olympic 39%, draw 22%, Tuggeranong Utd 39%.

How many goals are expected in Canberra Olympic vs Tuggeranong Utd?

The model expects 4.28 goals (Canberra Olympic 2.14 · Tuggeranong Utd 2.14), with a 54% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Canberra Olympic vs Tuggeranong Utd?

The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-2.