Football · Colombia Liga Femenina · 24/07, 22:30
Prediction: Independiente Medellin (W) vs Atletico Nacional (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.19Total
Independiente Medellin (W)0.8
Atletico Nacional (W)1.38
1X2
Independiente Medellin (W)
Draw
Atletico Nacional (W)
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 63%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
0-1
Recent form · 10 last
Independiente Medellin (W)
5-0-5 (W-D-L)
Atletico Nacional (W)
8-0-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Independiente Medellin (W)
0–2–4
Atletico Nacional (W)
(6 last)
- Atletico Nacional (W)1-0Independiente Medellin (W)
- Independiente Medellin (W)1-1Atletico Nacional (W)
- Atletico Nacional (W)2-0Independiente Medellin (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Independiente Medellin (W) 1502 · Atletico Nacional (W) 1578
| Independiente Medellin (W) | Draw | Atletico Nacional (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 21% | 30% | 49% |
| Market | 22% | 28% | 50% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.19 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atletico Nacional (W) (rating 1502 vs 1578).
- H2H favours Atletico Nacional (W): 4-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Independiente Medellin (W) | Atletico Nacional (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.2 | 1.7 / 0.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.6 | 0.5 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 3.5 | 1.9 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0.6 | 3.9 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Independiente Medellin (W) 0–2–4 Atletico Nacional (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/05/26 Colombia Liga Femenina | Atletico Nacional (W) | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Independiente Medellin (W) |
| 08/06/25 Colombia Liga Femenina | Independiente Medellin (W) | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Atletico Nacional (W) |
| 01/05/25 Colombia Liga Femenina | Atletico Nacional (W) | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Independiente Medellin (W) |
| 03/07/24 Colombia Liga Femenina | Independiente Medellin (W) | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Atletico Nacional (W) |
| 19/06/24 Colombia Liga Femenina | Atletico Nacional (W) | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Independiente Medellin (W) |
| 23/04/24 Colombia Liga Femenina | Independiente Medellin (W) | 3-4 HT 1-2 | Atletico Nacional (W) |
Standings · Colombia Liga Femenina
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Nacional (W) | 13 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 25 | 5 | 33 |
| 2 | Deportivo Cali (W) | 13 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 29 | 6 | 32 |
| 3 | America de Cali (W) | 13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 6 | 29 |
| 4 | Millonarios (W) | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 28 | 7 | 28 |
| 5 | Independiente Santa Fe (W) | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 23 | 9 | 25 |
| 6 | Internacional de Bogota (W) | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 14 | 22 |
| 7 | Internacional FC de Palmira (W) | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 15 | 21 |
| 8 | Independiente Medellin (W) | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 20 | 15 | 19 |
| 9 | Orsomarso (W) | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 15 |
| 10 | Fortaleza CEIF (W) | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 18 | 13 |
| 11 | Llaneros (W) | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 21 | 13 |
| 12 | Junior (W) | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 21 | 11 |
| 13 | Atletico Bucaramanga (W) | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 33 | 8 |
| 14 | Once Caldas (W) | 13 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 19 | 7 |
| 15 | CD Real Santander (W) | 13 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 19 | 7 |
| 16 | Deportivo Pasto (W) | 13 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 8 | 24 | 3 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Independiente Medellin (W) | Atletico Nacional (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Orsomarso (W) | 2-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Atletico Bucaramanga (W) | 3-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Once Caldas (W) | 3-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Junior (W) | 2-3 L | 2-1 W |
| Deportivo Pasto (W) | 3-1 W | 3-1 W |
| Internacional de Bogota (W) | 0-1 L | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 0 D 2 L | 5 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Independiente Medellin (W) (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Independiente Medellin (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/06 | Millonarios (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
0-2 | 1-3 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 24/05 | Orsomarso (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 17/05 | Independiente Santa Fe (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
0-2 | 0-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 10/05 | Atletico Bucaramanga (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
2-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 01/05 | Atletico Nacional (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 28/04 | Once Caldas (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
3-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 16/04 | Junior (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
1-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 31/03 | Deportivo Pasto (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
1-1 | 3-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 25/03 | Internacional de Bogota (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 15/03 | Llaneros (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
Atletico Nacional (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/05 | Internacional de Bogota (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 24/05 | Deportivo Pasto (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
1-1 | 3-1 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 16/05 | Once Caldas (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 11/05 | Internacional FC de Palmira (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 01/05 | Independiente Medellin (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
0-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 6 | W |
| 26/04 | Orsomarso (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 12/04 | CD Real Santander (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
2-0 | 5-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 30/03 | Junior (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
0-1 | 2-1 | 11 | 3 | W |
| 21/03 | Atletico Bucaramanga (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 16/03 | America de Cali (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Independiente Medellin (W) vs Atletico Nacional (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Atletico Nacional (W) win (50%). Probabilities: Independiente Medellin (W) 21%, draw 29%, Atletico Nacional (W) 50%.
How many goals are expected in Independiente Medellin (W) vs Atletico Nacional (W)?
The model expects 2.19 goals (Independiente Medellin (W) 0.8 · Atletico Nacional (W) 1.38), with a 53% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Independiente Medellin (W) vs Atletico Nacional (W)?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.