Football · Colombia Liga Femenina · 31/07, 22:15
Prediction: Fortaleza CEIF (W) vs Independiente Medellin (W)
Team pages: Fortaleza CEIF (W) · Independiente Medellin (W)
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Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.36Total
Fortaleza CEIF (W)0.96
Independiente Medellin (W)1.41
1X2
Fortaleza CEIF (W)
Draw
Independiente Medellin (W)
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 58%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Fortaleza CEIF (W)
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Independiente Medellin (W)
4-0-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Fortaleza CEIF (W)
0–2
Independiente Medellin (W)
(2 last)
- Fortaleza CEIF (W)1-5Independiente Medellin (W)
- Independiente Medellin (W)3-1Fortaleza CEIF (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Fortaleza CEIF (W) 1460 · Independiente Medellin (W) 1480
| Fortaleza CEIF (W) | Draw | Independiente Medellin (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 24% | 30% | 46% |
| Market | 24% | 30% | 46% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.36 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Independiente Medellin (W): 2-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Fortaleza CEIF (W) | Independiente Medellin (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.6 / 1.3 | 1.5 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.1 / 0.3 | 0.9 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/60/30% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 0.8 / 2.9 | 1.7 / 3.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0.2 | 3.8 / 0.7 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Fortaleza CEIF (W) 0–0–2 Independiente Medellin (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/03/25 Colombia Liga Femenina | Fortaleza CEIF (W) | 1-5 HT 1-2 | Independiente Medellin (W) |
| 19/03/22 Colombia Liga Femenina | Independiente Medellin (W) | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Fortaleza CEIF (W) |
Standings · Colombia Liga Femenina
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Nacional (W) | 14 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 28 | 6 | 36 |
| 2 | Deportivo Cali (W) | 14 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 30 | 6 | 35 |
| 3 | Millonarios (W) | 14 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 28 | 7 | 29 |
| 4 | America de Cali (W) | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 22 | 7 | 29 |
| 5 | Independiente Santa Fe (W) | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 23 | 10 | 25 |
| 6 | Internacional de Bogota (W) | 14 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 14 | 25 |
| 7 | Internacional FC de Palmira (W) | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 16 | 22 |
| 8 | Independiente Medellin (W) | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 21 | 18 | 19 |
| 9 | Orsomarso (W) | 14 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 16 |
| 10 | Fortaleza CEIF (W) | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 19 | 13 |
| 11 | Llaneros (W) | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 24 | 13 |
| 12 | Junior (W) | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 11 | 21 | 12 |
| 13 | Atletico Bucaramanga (W) | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 12 | 33 | 11 |
| 14 | CD Real Santander (W) | 14 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 19 | 10 |
| 15 | Once Caldas (W) | 14 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 6 | 23 | 7 |
| 16 | Deportivo Pasto (W) | 14 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 12 | 25 | 6 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Fortaleza CEIF (W) | Independiente Medellin (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Internacional de Bogota (W) | 0-1 L | 0-1 L |
| Atletico Bucaramanga (W) | 2-1 W | 3-0 W |
| Junior (W) | 0-0 D | 2-3 L |
| Millonarios (W) | 0-3 L | 1-3 L |
| Deportivo Pasto (W) | 2-1 W | 3-1 W |
| Orsomarso (W) | 1-1 D | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 2 L | 3 W 0 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Independiente Medellin (W) (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Fortaleza CEIF (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/07 | Internacional de Bogota (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 29/05 | Atletico Bucaramanga (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
1-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 24/05 | Junior (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 15/05 | Millonarios (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 10/05 | Deportivo Pasto (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 03/05 | Internacional de Bogota (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 23/04 | Internacional FC de Palmira (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
0-0 | 1-3 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 03/04 | America de Cali (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 29/03 | Orsomarso (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 24/03 | CD Real Santander (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | D |
Independiente Medellin (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/07 | Atletico Nacional (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
1-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 04/06 | Millonarios (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
0-2 | 1-3 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 24/05 | Orsomarso (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 17/05 | Independiente Santa Fe (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
0-2 | 0-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 10/05 | Atletico Bucaramanga (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
2-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 01/05 | Atletico Nacional (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 28/04 | Once Caldas (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
3-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 16/04 | Junior (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
1-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 31/03 | Deportivo Pasto (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
1-1 | 3-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 25/03 | Internacional de Bogota (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 6 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Fortaleza CEIF (W) vs Independiente Medellin (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Independiente Medellin (W) win (46%). Probabilities: Fortaleza CEIF (W) 24%, draw 30%, Independiente Medellin (W) 46%.
How many goals are expected in Fortaleza CEIF (W) vs Independiente Medellin (W)?
The model expects 2.36 goals (Fortaleza CEIF (W) 0.96 · Independiente Medellin (W) 1.41), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Fortaleza CEIF (W) vs Independiente Medellin (W)?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.