Football · Brazil Copa Rio · 15/07, 21:00
Prediction: Araruama FC vs Boavista RJ
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.35Total
Araruama FC0.98
Boavista RJ1.37
1X2
Araruama FC
Draw
Boavista RJ
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 58%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Araruama FC
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Boavista RJ
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Araruama FC
0–2
Boavista RJ
(2 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Araruama FC 1501 · Boavista RJ 1457
| Araruama FC | Draw | Boavista RJ | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 26% | 30% | 44% |
| Market | 27% | 27% | 46% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.35 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Araruama FC (rating 1501 vs 1457).
- H2H favours Boavista RJ: 2-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 11.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Araruama FC | Boavista RJ | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 0.9 | 0.9 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.2 | 0.4 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/60/10% | 10/50/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.1 / 3.3 | 2.3 / 4.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.9 / 0.5 | 5.7 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Araruama FC 0–0–2 Boavista RJ
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07/19 Brazil Copa Rio | Boavista RJ | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Araruama FC |
| 03/07/19 Brazil Copa Rio | Araruama FC | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Boavista RJ |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Araruama FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Sao Cristovao RJ Brazil Copa Rio |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 04/07 | Cabofriense Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 27/06 | Olaria AC Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 24/06 | America RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 17/06 | Sao Cristovao RJ Brazil Copa Rio |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 9 | D |
| 14/06 | Sao Goncalo Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 9 | D |
| 06/06 | Resende RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 03/06 | Marica RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 9 | L |
| 23/05 | Perolas Negras Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
0-0 | 1-3 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 16/05 | Americano RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
1-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
Boavista RJ
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/02 | Botafogo Brazil Campeonato Carioca |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 24/02 | Maringa FC Copa do Brasil |
0-2 | 2-3 | 0 | 15 | L |
| 22/02 | Botafogo Brazil Campeonato Carioca |
0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 13/02 | Madureira RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca |
1-1 | 1-2 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 08/02 | Bangu Brazil Campeonato Carioca |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 30/01 | Sampaio Correa RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 26/01 | Vasco da Gama Brazil Campeonato Carioca |
0-1 | 0-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 22/01 | Portuguesa RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca |
2-1 | 3-2 | 5 | 9 | W |
| 17/01 | Fluminense Brazil Campeonato Carioca |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 14/01 | Volta Redonda Brazil Campeonato Carioca |
0-1 | 0-1 | 11 | 8 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Araruama FC vs Boavista RJ?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Boavista RJ win (45%). Probabilities: Araruama FC 26%, draw 28%, Boavista RJ 45%.
How many goals are expected in Araruama FC vs Boavista RJ?
The model expects 2.35 goals (Araruama FC 0.98 · Boavista RJ 1.37), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Araruama FC vs Boavista RJ?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.