Football · Brazil Copa Rio · 23/07, 02:00
Prediction: Portuguesa RJ vs Americano RJ
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.37Total
Portuguesa RJ1.81
Americano RJ0.56
1X2
Portuguesa RJ
Draw
Americano RJ
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 58%
Not both to score 54%
Most likely score
1-0
Recent form · 10 last
Portuguesa RJ
2-6-2 (W-D-L)
Americano RJ
6-4-0 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Portuguesa RJ
1–1–1
Americano RJ
(3 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Portuguesa RJ 1503 · Americano RJ 1583
| Portuguesa RJ | Draw | Americano RJ | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 67% | 23% | 10% |
| Market | 67% | 22% | 11% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.37 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Americano RJ (rating 1503 vs 1583).
- Cards-heavy: 11.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Portuguesa RJ | Americano RJ | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.1 | 1.6 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.4 | 1 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 60/40/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 3.6 | 2.9 / 5.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 6.6 / 0.4 | 5.1 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Portuguesa RJ 1–1–1 Americano RJ
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/07/26 Brazil Copa Rio | Americano RJ | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Portuguesa RJ |
| 22/12/19 Brazil Campeonato Carioca | Portuguesa RJ | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Americano RJ |
| 20/01/19 Brazil Campeonato Carioca | Portuguesa RJ | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Americano RJ |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Portuguesa RJ
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/07 | Americano RJ Brazil Copa Rio |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 8 | D |
| 12/07 | Sao Jose PA Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 04/07 | Sao Jose PA Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 9 | L |
| 28/06 | Noroeste Brazil Serie D |
2-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 21/06 | Noroeste Brazil Serie D |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 06/06 | Portuguesa Desportos Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 9 | L |
| 31/05 | America RJ Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 2-2 | 12 | 6 | D |
| 23/05 | Madureira RJ Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 5 | D |
| 16/05 | Pouso Alegre Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 2-0 | 0 | 7 | W |
| 10/05 | EC Agua Santa Brazil Serie D |
1-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 7 | D |
Americano RJ
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | America RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
2-0 | 4-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 15/07 | Portuguesa RJ Brazil Copa Rio |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 8 | D |
| 11/07 | America RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 04/07 | Resende RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
2-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 27/06 | Marica RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 23/06 | Macae Esporte FC Brazil Copa Rio |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 20/06 | Perolas Negras Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 17/06 | Macae Esporte FC Brazil Copa Rio |
0-0 | 0-0 | 14 | 2 | D |
| 14/06 | Cabofriense Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 1 | W |
| 06/06 | Audax Rio Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
2-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Portuguesa RJ vs Americano RJ?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Portuguesa RJ win (67%). Probabilities: Portuguesa RJ 67%, draw 23%, Americano RJ 10%.
How many goals are expected in Portuguesa RJ vs Americano RJ?
The model expects 2.37 goals (Portuguesa RJ 1.81 · Americano RJ 0.56), with a 55% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Portuguesa RJ vs Americano RJ?
The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.