Football · Brazil Copa Rio · 22/07, 19:45
Prediction: Nova Iguacu vs America RJ
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.57Total
Nova Iguacu1.66
America RJ0.91
1X2
Nova Iguacu
Draw
America RJ
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Nova Iguacu
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
America RJ
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Nova Iguacu
2–3–1
America RJ
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Nova Iguacu 1515 · America RJ 1479
| Nova Iguacu | Draw | America RJ | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 27% | 20% |
| Market | 54% | 26% | 20% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.57 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Nova Iguacu: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 10.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Nova Iguacu | America RJ | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 1.1 | 1.3 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.5 | 0.4 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 4.1 | 1.8 / 4.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.6 / 0.6 | 5.2 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Nova Iguacu 2–3–1 America RJ
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/07/26 Brazil Copa Rio | America RJ | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Nova Iguacu |
| 10/02/21 Brazil Campeonato Carioca | Nova Iguacu | 1-0 HT 0-0 | America RJ |
| 23/01/21 Brazil Campeonato Carioca | America RJ | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Nova Iguacu |
| 04/07/20 Brazil Campeonato Carioca | America RJ | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Nova Iguacu |
| 07/03/20 Brazil Campeonato Carioca | Nova Iguacu | 0-2 HT 0-1 | America RJ |
| 19/02/20 Brazil Campeonato Carioca | Nova Iguacu | 2-2 HT 1-1 | America RJ |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nova Iguacu
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/07 | America RJ Brazil Copa Rio |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 09/07 | Fluminense America Friendlies |
1-2 | 1-6 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 07/06 | XV Piracicaba Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 30/05 | Marica RJ Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 23/05 | Noroeste Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 16/05 | Sampaio Correa RJ Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 13 | W |
| 10/05 | Velo Clube SP Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 9 | D |
| 03/05 | Velo Clube SP Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 26/04 | Sampaio Correa RJ Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 18/04 | Noroeste Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 9 | D |
America RJ
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Americano RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
0-2 | 1-4 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 15/07 | Nova Iguacu Brazil Copa Rio |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 11/07 | Americano RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 04/07 | Serrano Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
1-0 | 5-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 01/07 | Bonsucesso FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
1-2 | 2-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 27/06 | XV Piracicaba Brazil Serie D |
0-2 | 0-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 24/06 | Araruama FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 20/06 | XV Piracicaba Brazil Serie D |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 13/06 | Olaria AC Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
1-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 6 | D |
| 10/06 | Cabofriense Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
0-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Nova Iguacu vs America RJ?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Nova Iguacu win (54%). Probabilities: Nova Iguacu 54%, draw 26%, America RJ 20%.
How many goals are expected in Nova Iguacu vs America RJ?
The model expects 2.57 goals (Nova Iguacu 1.66 · America RJ 0.91), with a 58% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Nova Iguacu vs America RJ?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.