Football · Brazil Copa Rio · 22/07, 19:45
Prediction: Marica RJ vs Perolas Negras
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.45Total
Marica RJ1.75
Perolas Negras0.7
1X2
Marica RJ
Draw
Perolas Negras
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 56%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-0
Recent form · 10 last
Marica RJ
3-5-2 (W-D-L)
Perolas Negras
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Marica RJ
2–4–0
Perolas Negras
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Marica RJ 1514 · Perolas Negras 1536
| Marica RJ | Draw | Perolas Negras | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 62% | 25% | 13% |
| Market | 62% | 24% | 14% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.45 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Marica RJ: 2-4-0.
- Cards-heavy: 11.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Marica RJ | Perolas Negras | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 0.7 | 1.9 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.2 | 0.4 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 4.7 | 2.6 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.8 / 0.1 | 6 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Marica RJ 2–4–0 Perolas Negras
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/07/26 Brazil Copa Rio | Perolas Negras | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Marica RJ |
| 04/07/26 Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 | Marica RJ | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Perolas Negras |
| 10/11/21 Brazil Copa Rio | Marica RJ | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Perolas Negras |
| 28/10/21 Brazil Copa Rio | Perolas Negras | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Marica RJ |
| 22/09/19 Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2 | Perolas Negras | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Marica RJ |
| 19/09/19 Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2 | Marica RJ | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Perolas Negras |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Marica RJ | Perolas Negras |
|---|---|---|
| Americano RJ | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Audax Rio | 1-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Serrano | 1-1 D | 2-1 W |
| Bonsucesso FC | 0-0 D | 1-4 L |
| Araruama FC | 1-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 3 D 0 L | 3 W 0 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Marica RJ
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Resende RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 13 | 5 | D |
| 15/07 | Perolas Negras Brazil Copa Rio |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 11/07 | Resende RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 04/07 | Perolas Negras Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 27/06 | Americano RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 20/06 | Audax Rio Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 14/06 | Serrano Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 8 | D |
| 10/06 | Bonsucesso FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 07/06 | Velo Clube SP Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 1-3 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 03/06 | Araruama FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 9 | W |
Perolas Negras
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/07 | Marica RJ Brazil Copa Rio |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 04/07 | Marica RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 27/06 | Cabofriense Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 10 | W |
| 23/06 | Santa Cruz RJ Brazil Copa Rio |
2-1 | 5-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 20/06 | Americano RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 17/06 | Santa Cruz RJ Brazil Copa Rio |
1-0 | 5-0 | 12 | 7 | W |
| 14/06 | Audax Rio Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 06/06 | Serrano Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
0-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 30/05 | Bonsucesso FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
0-3 | 1-4 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 23/05 | Araruama FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
0-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Marica RJ vs Perolas Negras?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Marica RJ win (62%). Probabilities: Marica RJ 62%, draw 25%, Perolas Negras 14%.
How many goals are expected in Marica RJ vs Perolas Negras?
The model expects 2.45 goals (Marica RJ 1.75 · Perolas Negras 0.7), with a 55% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Marica RJ vs Perolas Negras?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.