Football · Brazil Copa Rio · 22/07, 19:45
Prediction: Madureira RJ vs Bonsucesso FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.59Total
Madureira RJ1.56
Bonsucesso FC1.04
1X2
Madureira RJ
Draw
Bonsucesso FC
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Madureira RJ
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Bonsucesso FC
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Madureira RJ
0–3–1
Bonsucesso FC
(4 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Madureira RJ 1503 · Bonsucesso FC 1515
| Madureira RJ | Draw | Bonsucesso FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 28% | 24% |
| Market | 49% | 27% | 24% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.59 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 11.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Madureira RJ | Bonsucesso FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.6 | 1.3 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.8 | 0.6 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 30/20/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.5 / 3.3 | 1.3 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.9 / 0.2 | 5.6 / 0.6 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Madureira RJ 0–3–1 Bonsucesso FC
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/07/26 Brazil Copa Rio | Bonsucesso FC | 2-2 HT 0-2 | Madureira RJ |
| 28/08/24 Brazil Copa Rio | Madureira RJ | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Bonsucesso FC |
| 21/08/24 Brazil Copa Rio | Bonsucesso FC | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Madureira RJ |
| 25/03/15 Brazil Campeonato Carioca | Madureira RJ | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Bonsucesso FC |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Madureira RJ
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/07 | Bonsucesso FC Brazil Copa Rio |
2-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 8 | D |
| 06/06 | Pouso Alegre Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 30/05 | EC Agua Santa Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 1-4 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 23/05 | Portuguesa RJ Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 16/05 | America RJ Brazil Serie D |
0-2 | 1-3 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 09/05 | Portuguesa Desportos Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 03/05 | Portuguesa Desportos Brazil Serie D |
0-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 25/04 | America RJ Brazil Serie D |
1-2 | 2-3 | 4 | 12 | L |
| 19/04 | Portuguesa RJ Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 12 | D |
| 11/04 | EC Agua Santa Brazil Serie D |
3-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
Bonsucesso FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/07 | Madureira RJ Brazil Copa Rio |
0-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 8 | D |
| 04/07 | Olaria AC Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 01/07 | America RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
2-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 23/06 | Cabofriense Brazil Copa Rio |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 8 | D |
| 20/06 | Sao Goncalo Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 17/06 | Cabofriense Brazil Copa Rio |
0-1 | 3-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 13/06 | Resende RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 10/06 | Marica RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 30/05 | Perolas Negras Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
3-0 | 4-1 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 23/05 | Americano RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
0-1 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Madureira RJ vs Bonsucesso FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Madureira RJ win (48%). Probabilities: Madureira RJ 48%, draw 27%, Bonsucesso FC 24%.
How many goals are expected in Madureira RJ vs Bonsucesso FC?
The model expects 2.59 goals (Madureira RJ 1.56 · Bonsucesso FC 1.04), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Madureira RJ vs Bonsucesso FC?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.