Football · Czechia 4. Liga · 17/10, 14:30

Prediction: SK Stonava vs SK Zabreh

Team pages: SK Stonava · SK Zabreh

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.11Total

SK Stonava1.82

SK Zabreh1.3

1X2

49% 24% 27%

SK Stonava Draw SK Zabreh

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

SK Stonava 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DLWLWWDWWL

SK Zabreh 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WWDLLWLDLD

Head-to-head

SK Stonava 2–0 SK Zabreh (2 last)

SK Stonava1-0SK Zabreh
SK Zabreh0-1SK Stonava

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SK Stonava 1533 · SK Zabreh 1458

	SK Stonava	Draw	SK Zabreh
Our model	49%	25%	26%
Market	50%	22%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 3.11 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SK Stonava (rating 1533 vs 1458).
H2H favours SK Stonava: 2-0-0.
High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SK Stonava	SK Zabreh
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.6	1.2 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.7	0.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 6.3	3 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.7 / 0.3	4.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.80

X4.00

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.85

2 (+0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
04:05 +5’	1.80	4.00	3.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · SK Stonava 2–0–0 SK Zabreh

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 Czechia 4. Liga	SK Stonava	1-0 HT 1-0	SK Zabreh
07/09/25 Czechia 4. Liga	SK Zabreh	0-1 HT 0-0	SK Stonava

Standings · Czechia 4. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Bohumin	10	9	0	1	35	12	27
2	Kravare	10	8	1	1	27	12	25
3	FC Vratimov	10	7	0	3	20	14	21
4	Hlucin	10	6	1	3	20	15	19
5	SK Stonava	10	5	2	3	21	16	17
6	Opava B	10	5	1	4	22	19	16
7	Jiskra Rymarov	10	4	2	4	22	18	14
8	TJ Novy Jicin	10	4	2	4	18	21	14
9	TJ Valasske Mezirici	10	3	4	3	22	18	13
10	SK Zabreh	10	3	3	4	12	13	12
11	Pusta Polom	10	3	2	5	15	20	11
12	Bridlicna	10	3	1	6	14	22	10
13	FK Sumperk	10	2	3	5	14	17	9
14	Frydek Mistek B	10	3	0	7	17	23	9
15	SSK Bilovec	10	2	2	6	7	19	8
16	Frydlant Nad Ostravici	10	1	0	9	11	38	3

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SK Stonava	SK Zabreh
TJ Valasske Mezirici	2-2 D	1-1 D
Frydek Mistek B	2-1 W	1-2 L
Jiskra Rymarov	1-0 W	2-2 D
FC Vratimov	1-3 L	1-3 L
FK Sumperk	3-0 W	1-0 W
Kravare	1-2 L	0-1 L
TJ Novy Jicin	2-2 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: SK Stonava (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SK Stonava

DLWLWWDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Opava B Czechia 4. Liga	0-2	1-4	3	6	L
03/10	Frydlant Nad Ostravici Czechia 4. Liga	2-0	4-1	–	–	W
26/09	Hlucin Czechia 4. Liga	4-0	4-1	–	–	W
18/09	TJ Valasske Mezirici Czechia 4. Liga	1-1	2-2	5	5	D
12/09	Frydek Mistek B Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
05/09	Jiskra Rymarov Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
29/08	FC Vratimov Czechia 4. Liga	1-2	1-3	–	–	L
23/08	FK Sumperk Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	3-0	–	–	W
15/08	Kravare Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	1-2	11	7	L
08/08	TJ Novy Jicin Czechia 4. Liga	2-1	2-2	–	–	D

SK Zabreh

WWDLLWLDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	TJ Valasske Mezirici Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
04/10	Frydek Mistek B Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	1-2	5	2	L
27/09	Jiskra Rymarov Czechia 4. Liga	2-0	2-2	–	–	D
19/09	FC Vratimov Czechia 4. Liga	1-2	1-3	5	5	L
13/09	FK Sumperk Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	1-0	4	9	W
06/09	Kravare Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
30/08	TJ Novy Jicin Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	0-1	7	3	L
23/08	Pusta Polom Czechia 4. Liga	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
16/08	SSK Bilovec Czechia 4. Liga	2-0	2-1	–	–	W
08/08	Bridlicna Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	2-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SK Stonava vs SK Zabreh?

According to our model, the most likely result is a SK Stonava win (49%). Probabilities: SK Stonava 49%, draw 24%, SK Zabreh 27%.

How many goals are expected in SK Stonava vs SK Zabreh?

The model expects 3.11 goals (SK Stonava 1.82 · SK Zabreh 1.3), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in SK Stonava vs SK Zabreh?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.