Football · Czechia 4. Liga · 25/10, 14:00

Prediction: Kravare vs FK Sumperk

Team pages: Kravare · FK Sumperk

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.28Total

Kravare2.19

FK Sumperk1.09

1X2

62% 21% 18%

Kravare Draw FK Sumperk

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Kravare 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWLDWWWD

FK Sumperk 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

DLWLLLLDDD

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Kravare 1580 · FK Sumperk 1450

	Kravare	Draw	FK Sumperk
Our model	61%	22%	17%
Market	62%	20%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 3.28 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kravare (rating 1580 vs 1450).
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Kravare	FK Sumperk
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 1.1	1.2 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.7	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 3.5	3.2 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.3	4.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.44

X4.50

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.98

2 (+1.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.90

Under 3.251.90

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:57

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.44 → 1.44	Bet365 1.44
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
07:41 +16’	1.44	4.50	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Czechia 4. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Bohumin	11	9	0	2	36	14	27
2	Kravare	11	8	2	1	27	12	26
3	FC Vratimov	11	8	0	3	24	17	24
4	Hlucin	12	7	2	3	23	16	23
5	TJ Valasske Mezirici	12	5	4	3	25	19	19
6	Opava B	12	6	1	5	27	23	19
7	Jiskra Rymarov	11	5	2	4	27	18	17
8	SK Stonava	11	5	2	4	21	18	17
9	SK Zabreh	11	4	3	4	14	13	15
10	TJ Novy Jicin	11	4	3	4	18	21	15
11	Frydek Mistek B	11	4	0	7	21	25	12
12	Pusta Polom	11	3	2	6	18	24	11
13	FK Sumperk	11	2	4	5	14	17	10
14	Bridlicna	12	3	1	8	16	27	10
15	SSK Bilovec	11	2	2	7	7	24	8
16	Frydlant Nad Ostravici	11	1	0	10	12	42	3

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Kravare	FK Sumperk
TJ Novy Jicin	4-0 W	0-0 D
Pusta Polom	2-1 W	2-2 D
SSK Bilovec	2-0 W	1-1 D
Bridlicna	2-2 D	1-2 L
FK Bohumin	1-5 L	1-3 L
SK Zabreh	1-0 W	0-1 L
Opava B	3-0 W	1-2 L
Frydlant Nad Ostravici	7-2 W	5-1 W
SK Stonava	2-1 W	0-3 L
Record vs common	7 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 3 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Kravare (8 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Kravare

WWWWLDWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/10	Hlucin Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	0-0	0	6	D
10/10	TJ Novy Jicin Czechia 4. Liga	3-0	4-0	0	4	W
04/10	Pusta Polom Czechia 4. Liga	1-1	2-1	4	7	W
27/09	SSK Bilovec Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
20/09	Bridlicna Czechia 4. Liga	2-2	2-2	5	4	D
13/09	FK Bohumin Czechia 4. Liga	1-2	1-5	8	5	L
06/09	SK Zabreh Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
29/08	Opava B Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	3-0	4	2	W
22/08	Frydlant Nad Ostravici Czechia 4. Liga	2-2	7-2	3	7	W
15/08	SK Stonava Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	2-1	4	7	W

FK Sumperk

DLWLLLLDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	TJ Novy Jicin Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
11/10	Pusta Polom Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	2-2	5	5	D
04/10	SSK Bilovec Czechia 4. Liga	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
27/09	Bridlicna Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	1-2	–	–	L
20/09	FK Bohumin Czechia 4. Liga	1-2	1-3	–	–	L
13/09	SK Zabreh Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	0-1	4	9	L
05/09	Opava B Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	1-2	–	–	L
29/08	Frydlant Nad Ostravici Czechia 4. Liga	2-1	5-1	9	3	W
23/08	SK Stonava Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	0-3	–	–	L
15/08	TJ Valasske Mezirici Czechia 4. Liga	1-1	1-1	5	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Kravare vs FK Sumperk?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Kravare win (62%). Probabilities: Kravare 62%, draw 21%, FK Sumperk 18%.

How many goals are expected in Kravare vs FK Sumperk?

The model expects 3.28 goals (Kravare 2.19 · FK Sumperk 1.09), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Kravare vs FK Sumperk?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.