Football · Czechia 4. Liga · 17/10, 10:30

Prediction: Sparta Brno vs Velke Mezirici

Team pages: Sparta Brno · Velke Mezirici

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.57Total

Sparta Brno2.24

Velke Mezirici1.33

1X2

57% 22% 21%

Sparta Brno Draw Velke Mezirici

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Sparta Brno 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LDWLWLWWWW

Velke Mezirici 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DLDDWLLWLD

Head-to-head

Sparta Brno 0–2 Velke Mezirici (2 last)

Velke Mezirici2-1Sparta Brno
Sparta Brno1-2Velke Mezirici

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sparta Brno 1518 · Velke Mezirici 1475

	Sparta Brno	Draw	Velke Mezirici
Our model	57%	22%	21%
Market	57%	21%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 3.57 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sparta Brno (rating 1518 vs 1475).
H2H favours Velke Mezirici: 2-0-0.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sparta Brno	Velke Mezirici
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.3	1.4 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.4	0.7 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.1	2.3 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.1	3.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.57

X4.20

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.98

2 (+1)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.82

Under 3.251.98

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
03:59 +8’	1.57	4.20	4.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Sparta Brno 0–0–2 Velke Mezirici

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
08/05/26 Czechia 4. Liga	Velke Mezirici	2-1 HT 1-0	Sparta Brno
04/10/25 Czechia 4. Liga	Sparta Brno	1-2 HT 1-0	Velke Mezirici

Standings · Czechia 4. Liga

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Bohumin	10	9	0	1	35	12	27
2	Kravare	10	8	1	1	27	12	25
3	FC Vratimov	10	7	0	3	20	14	21
4	Hlucin	10	6	1	3	20	15	19
5	SK Stonava	10	5	2	3	21	16	17
6	Opava B	10	5	1	4	22	19	16
7	Jiskra Rymarov	10	4	2	4	22	18	14
8	TJ Novy Jicin	10	4	2	4	18	21	14
9	TJ Valasske Mezirici	10	3	4	3	22	18	13
10	SK Zabreh	10	3	3	4	12	13	12
11	Pusta Polom	10	3	2	5	15	20	11
12	Bridlicna	10	3	1	6	14	22	10
13	FK Sumperk	10	2	3	5	14	17	9
14	Frydek Mistek B	10	3	0	7	17	23	9
15	SSK Bilovec	10	2	2	6	7	19	8
16	Frydlant Nad Ostravici	10	1	0	9	11	38	3

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sparta Brno	Velke Mezirici
FK Pelhrimov	3-0 W	0-5 L
SK Zdirec Nad Doubravou	3-1 W	3-2 W
TJ Tatran Bohunice	2-1 W	3-3 D
Sokol Tasovice	3-2 W	0-0 D
Havlickuv Brod	1-3 L	1-3 L
AFC Humpolec	1-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Sparta Brno (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sparta Brno

LDWLWLWWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	FK Pelhrimov Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	3-0	–	–	W
03/10	SK Zdirec Nad Doubravou Czechia 4. Liga	3-1	3-1	5	4	W
25/09	TJ Tatran Bohunice Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	2-1	6	6	W
19/09	Sokol Tasovice Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	3-2	5	5	W
12/09	Havlickuv Brod Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	1-3	–	–	L
05/09	AFC Humpolec Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
29/08	SC Znojmo Czechia 4. Liga	0-2	0-3	–	–	L
22/08	FC Chotebor Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
16/08	Zdar nad Sazavou Czechia 4. Liga	1-1	1-1	2	0	D
08/08	FS Trebic Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	1-2	9	4	L

Velke Mezirici

DLDDWLLWLD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Dosta Bystrc Czechia 4. Liga	1-3	4-4	2	3	D
03/10	FC Kurim Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	0-3	2	2	L
27/09	TJ Sokol Bedrichov Czechia 4. Liga	2-1	2-1	5	3	W
20/09	FC Spartak Velka Bites Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	0-2	5	5	L
13/09	FK Pelhrimov Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	0-5	–	–	L
06/09	SK Zdirec Nad Doubravou Czechia 4. Liga	2-0	3-2	10	5	W
28/08	TJ Tatran Bohunice Czechia 4. Liga	2-2	3-3	2	5	D
21/08	Sokol Tasovice Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
16/08	Havlickuv Brod Czechia 4. Liga	0-2	1-3	–	–	L
07/08	AFC Humpolec Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	1-1	12	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sparta Brno vs Velke Mezirici?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sparta Brno win (57%). Probabilities: Sparta Brno 57%, draw 22%, Velke Mezirici 21%.

How many goals are expected in Sparta Brno vs Velke Mezirici?

The model expects 3.57 goals (Sparta Brno 2.24 · Velke Mezirici 1.33), with a 53% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Sparta Brno vs Velke Mezirici?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.