Football · Czechia 4. Liga · 17/10, 14:30

Prediction: SK Krumvir vs FK Kozlovice

Team pages: SK Krumvir · FK Kozlovice

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.41Total

SK Krumvir1.46

FK Kozlovice1.95

1X2

29% 23% 48%

SK Krumvir Draw FK Kozlovice

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

SK Krumvir 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWWLWWWLDL

FK Kozlovice 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

WDWWWWWDDW

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SK Krumvir 1508 · FK Kozlovice 1564

	SK Krumvir	Draw	FK Kozlovice
Our model	28%	24%	48%
Market	29%	22%	49%

Estimated total (ours) 3.41 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Kozlovice (rating 1508 vs 1564).
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SK Krumvir	FK Kozlovice
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.6	2.7 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	1.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.3	3 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.3	4.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.10

X4.00

21.83

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.93

2 (-0.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
04:04 +5’	3.10	4.00	1.83

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Czechia 4. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Bohumin	10	9	0	1	35	12	27
2	Kravare	10	8	1	1	27	12	25
3	FC Vratimov	10	7	0	3	20	14	21
4	Hlucin	10	6	1	3	20	15	19
5	SK Stonava	10	5	2	3	21	16	17
6	Opava B	10	5	1	4	22	19	16
7	Jiskra Rymarov	10	4	2	4	22	18	14
8	TJ Novy Jicin	10	4	2	4	18	21	14
9	TJ Valasske Mezirici	10	3	4	3	22	18	13
10	SK Zabreh	10	3	3	4	12	13	12
11	Pusta Polom	10	3	2	5	15	20	11
12	Bridlicna	10	3	1	6	14	22	10
13	FK Sumperk	10	2	3	5	14	17	9
14	Frydek Mistek B	10	3	0	7	17	23	9
15	SSK Bilovec	10	2	2	6	7	19	8
16	Frydlant Nad Ostravici	10	1	0	9	11	38	3

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SK Krumvir	FK Kozlovice
Sternberk	3-4 L	1-0 W
Hluk	0-0 D	4-1 W
FC Strani	0-5 L	2-2 D
Breclav	1-0 W	1-1 D
Bzenec	3-1 W	5-1 W
SFK Holesov	1-0 W	1-1 D
FC Brumov	5-3 W	5-0 W
SK Batov	3-0 W	3-2 W
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 2 L	5 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: FK Kozlovice (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SK Krumvir

WWWLWWWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Sternberk Czechia 4. Liga	1-2	3-4	2	11	L
03/10	Hluk Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
27/09	FC Strani Czechia 4. Liga	0-2	0-5	3	5	L
19/09	Breclav Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
12/09	Bzenec Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	3-1	7	7	W
05/09	SFK Holesov Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	1-0	7	3	W
30/08	Tatran Vsechovice Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	0-2	6	4	L
22/08	FC Brumov Czechia 4. Liga	3-0	5-3	5	5	W
16/08	Slavicin Czechia 4. Liga	1-1	2-1	–	–	W
08/08	SK Batov Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	3-0	7	0	W

FK Kozlovice

WDWWWWWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Hluk Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	4-1	–	–	W
04/10	Breclav Czechia 4. Liga	1-1	1-1	6	3	D
26/09	SFK Holesov Czechia 4. Liga	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
20/09	FC Brumov Czechia 4. Liga	3-0	5-0	3	2	W
11/09	SK Batov Czechia 4. Liga	2-1	3-2	3	7	W
06/09	SK Prostejov B Czechia 4. Liga	3-0	4-1	11	5	W
30/08	Hanacka Slavia Kromeriz B Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	1-0	4	5	W
23/08	Sternberk Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	1-0	3	6	W
14/08	FC Strani Czechia 4. Liga	1-1	2-2	1	7	D
09/08	Bzenec Czechia 4. Liga	3-1	5-1	4	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SK Krumvir vs FK Kozlovice?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FK Kozlovice win (48%). Probabilities: SK Krumvir 29%, draw 23%, FK Kozlovice 48%.

How many goals are expected in SK Krumvir vs FK Kozlovice?

The model expects 3.41 goals (SK Krumvir 1.46 · FK Kozlovice 1.95), with a 50% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in SK Krumvir vs FK Kozlovice?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.