Football · Japan Football League · 27/09, 10:00
Prediction: Criacao Shinjuku vs Okinawa SV
Team pages: Criacao Shinjuku · Okinawa SV
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.76Total
Criacao Shinjuku1.38
Okinawa SV1.38
1X2
Criacao Shinjuku
Draw
Okinawa SV
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Criacao Shinjuku
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Okinawa SV
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Criacao Shinjuku
3–3
Okinawa SV
(6 last)
- Criacao Shinjuku1-0Okinawa SV
- Okinawa SV3-0Criacao Shinjuku
- Okinawa SV3-1Criacao Shinjuku
- Criacao Shinjuku0-4Okinawa SV
- Criacao Shinjuku1-0Okinawa SV
- Okinawa SV1-2Criacao Shinjuku
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Criacao Shinjuku 1496 · Okinawa SV 1496
| Criacao Shinjuku | Draw | Okinawa SV | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 36% | 28% | 36% |
| Market | 36% | 28% | 36% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.76 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Criacao Shinjuku | Okinawa SV | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 0.9 | 1.1 / 2.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.3 | 0.4 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 10/30/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 4.5 | 2.3 / 5.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.2 / 0.1 | 2 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Criacao Shinjuku 3–0–3 Okinawa SV
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08/25 Japan Football League | Criacao Shinjuku | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Okinawa SV |
| 18/05/25 Japan Football League | Okinawa SV | 3-0 HT 0-0 | Criacao Shinjuku |
| 13/07/24 Japan Football League | Okinawa SV | 3-1 HT 0-1 | Criacao Shinjuku |
| 10/03/24 Japan Football League | Criacao Shinjuku | 0-4 HT 0-2 | Okinawa SV |
| 23/07/23 Japan Football League | Criacao Shinjuku | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Okinawa SV |
| 19/03/23 Japan Football League | Okinawa SV | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Criacao Shinjuku |
Standings · Japan Football League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Verspah Oita | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 10 |
| 2 | Criacao Shinjuku | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 3 | YSCC | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 9 |
| 4 | Honda FC | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 9 |
| 5 | Azul Claro Numazu | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 8 |
| 6 | Okinawa SV | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 7 |
| 7 | Vonds Ichihara | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 7 |
| 8 | Minebea Mitsumi | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 7 |
| 9 | Reinmeer Aomori | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 7 |
| 10 | Veertien Mie | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 6 |
| 11 | Grulla Morioka FC | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
| 12 | FC Tiamo Hirakata | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 4 |
| 13 | J-Lease FC | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 3 |
| 14 | Maruyasu Okazaki | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
| 15 | Briobecca Urayasu SC | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 1 |
| 16 | Yokogawa Musashino FC | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Criacao Shinjuku | Okinawa SV |
|---|---|---|
| Azul Claro Numazu | 0-0 D | 1-2 L |
| Yokogawa Musashino FC | 1-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Veertien Mie | 1-1 D | 0-6 L |
| Reilac Shiga | 2-2 D | 1-3 L |
| Minebea Mitsumi | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Honda FC | 0-2 L | 1-3 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 4 D 1 L | 0 W 2 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Criacao Shinjuku (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Criacao Shinjuku
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Azul Claro Numazu Japan Football League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 13/09 | Maruyasu Okazaki Japan Football League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 05/09 | Vonds Ichihara Japan Football League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 30/08 | Yokogawa Musashino FC Japan Football League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 23/11 | Asuka FC Japan Football League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 16/11 | Grulla Morioka FC Japan Football League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 09/11 | Veertien Mie Japan Football League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 01/11 | Reilac Shiga Japan Football League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 25/10 | Minebea Mitsumi Japan Football League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 18/10 | Honda FC Japan Football League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 1 | 1 | L |
Okinawa SV
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/09 | FC Tiamo Hirakata Japan Football League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 12/09 | Reinmeer Aomori Japan Football League |
1-0 | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 05/09 | Minebea Mitsumi Japan Football League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 3 | D |
| 31/08 | Azul Claro Numazu Japan Football League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 23/11 | Veertien Mie Japan Football League |
0-1 | 0-6 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 16/11 | FC Tiamo Hirakata Japan Football League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 09/11 | Minebea Mitsumi Japan Football League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 01/11 | Honda FC Japan Football League |
1-1 | 1-3 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 25/10 | Reilac Shiga Japan Football League |
1-2 | 1-3 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 18/10 | Yokogawa Musashino FC Japan Football League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Criacao Shinjuku vs Okinawa SV?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Criacao Shinjuku win (36%). Probabilities: Criacao Shinjuku 36%, draw 28%, Okinawa SV 36%.
How many goals are expected in Criacao Shinjuku vs Okinawa SV?
The model expects 2.76 goals (Criacao Shinjuku 1.38 · Okinawa SV 1.38), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Criacao Shinjuku vs Okinawa SV?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.