Football · Lithuania A Lyga · 24/07, 18:00

Prediction: FK Siauliai vs Hegelmann Litauen

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.78Total

FK Siauliai1.39

Hegelmann Litauen1.39

1X2

36% 27% 36%

FK Siauliai Draw Hegelmann Litauen

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

FK Siauliai 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DWWDLLLWLL

Hegelmann Litauen 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

LWLDDLDDLL

Head-to-head

FK Siauliai 0–2–4 Hegelmann Litauen (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Siauliai 1455 · Hegelmann Litauen 1470

	FK Siauliai	Draw	Hegelmann Litauen
Our model	36%	28%	36%
Market	37%	26%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 2.78 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Hegelmann Litauen: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Siauliai	Hegelmann Litauen
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.8	0.9 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.8	0.4 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5.8	1.6 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0	3.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.40

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
18:07 +5’	2.45	3.40	2.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Siauliai 0–2–4 Hegelmann Litauen

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Lithuania A Lyga	Hegelmann Litauen	1-1 HT 1-1	FK Siauliai
11/03/26 Lithuania A Lyga	Hegelmann Litauen	1-1 HT 1-0	FK Siauliai
14/09/25 Lithuania A Lyga	FK Siauliai	0-1 HT 0-0	Hegelmann Litauen
07/08/25 Lithuania Cup	Hegelmann Litauen	3-1 HT 1-0	FK Siauliai
05/07/25 Lithuania A Lyga	Hegelmann Litauen	5-2 HT 1-1	FK Siauliai
02/05/25 Lithuania A Lyga	FK Siauliai	0-3 HT 0-0	Hegelmann Litauen

Standings · Lithuania A Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Kauno Zalgiris	20	9	7	4	38	15	34
2	Suduva Marijampole	20	8	9	3	26	17	33
3	FK Dziugas Telsiai	20	9	6	5	29	22	33
4	FK Zalgiris Vilnius	20	9	4	7	30	22	31
5	Banga Gargzdai	20	8	6	6	22	15	30
6	FK Transinvest	20	8	5	7	29	28	29
7	Hegelmann Litauen	20	3	10	7	21	34	19
8	Panevezys	20	5	4	11	18	37	19
9	FK Siauliai	20	2	7	11	18	41	13

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Siauliai	Hegelmann Litauen
FK Zalgiris Vilnius	0-3 L	3-1 W
FK Transinvest	1-3 L	1-2 L
FK Dziugas Telsiai	2-1 W	1-1 D
Panevezys	2-3 L	1-1 D
Suduva Marijampole	1-2 L	1-5 L
Banga Gargzdai	1-1 D	0-2 L
FK Kauno Zalgiris	0-0 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 4 L	1 W 3 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FK Siauliai

DWWDLLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/07	FK Zalgiris Vilnius Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	0-3	8	0	L
29/06	FK Transinvest Lithuania A Lyga	1-1	1-3	8	2	L
24/06	FK Dziugas Telsiai Lithuania Cup	1-1	2-1	5	7	W
20/06	Panevezys Lithuania A Lyga	1-2	2-3	8	5	L
16/06	Suduva Marijampole Lithuania A Lyga	1-1	1-2	4	6	L
12/06	FK Dziugas Telsiai Lithuania A Lyga	0-2	3-4	3	1	L
30/05	Banga Gargzdai Lithuania A Lyga	1-0	1-1	7	1	D
25/05	FK Riteriai Lithuania A Lyga	1-0	2-0	2	4	W
20/05	FK Ataka Lithuania Cup	0-1	2-1	12	6	W
16/05	FK Kauno Zalgiris Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	0-0	1	2	D

Hegelmann Litauen

LWLDDLDDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/07	Suduva Marijampole Lithuania A Lyga	0-3	1-5	2	2	L
16/07	Paide Linnameeskond UEFA Conference League Qualifying	0-2	0-3	6	4	L
09/07	Paide Linnameeskond UEFA Conference League Qualifying	1-1	1-1	1	0	D
04/07	Panevezys Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	1-1	3	2	D
28/06	Banga Gargzdai Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	0-2	6	3	L
17/06	FK Dziugas Telsiai Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	1-1	5	6	D
14/06	FK Kauno Zalgiris Lithuania A Lyga	1-1	1-1	8	4	D
29/05	FK Transinvest Lithuania A Lyga	0-2	1-2	6	3	L
24/05	FK Zalgiris Vilnius Lithuania A Lyga	2-1	3-1	3	6	W
20/05	FK Transinvest Lithuania Cup	0-0	0-2	1	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Siauliai vs Hegelmann Litauen?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Siauliai win (36%). Probabilities: FK Siauliai 36%, draw 27%, Hegelmann Litauen 36%.

How many goals are expected in FK Siauliai vs Hegelmann Litauen?

The model expects 2.78 goals (FK Siauliai 1.39 · Hegelmann Litauen 1.39), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Siauliai vs Hegelmann Litauen?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.