Football · Lithuania A Lyga · 19/07, 18:00

Prediction: FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs FK Transinvest

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.92Total

FK Zalgiris Vilnius1.68

FK Transinvest1.24

1X2

47% 26% 27%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius Draw FK Transinvest

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LLWWWLDWWW

FK Transinvest 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWWLDWDL

Head-to-head

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 3–3 FK Transinvest (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1536 · FK Transinvest 1531

	FK Zalgiris Vilnius	Draw	FK Transinvest
Our model	47%	26%	27%
Market	47%	26%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.92 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Zalgiris Vilnius	FK Transinvest
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.1	1.5 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	40/60/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.8	1.5 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0	4.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.50

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.7

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Pinn 2.06 ★
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.25 → 3.25	Pinn 3.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
14:18 +5’	1.91	3.50	3.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:23 +1’	2.03	3.37	3.22
15:20 +1’	2.06▲	3.45▲	3.30▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Zalgiris Vilnius 3–0–3 FK Transinvest

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 Lithuania A Lyga	FK Transinvest	1-0 HT 1-0	FK Zalgiris Vilnius
16/03/26 Lithuania A Lyga	FK Zalgiris Vilnius	1-2 HT 1-1	FK Transinvest
26/10/24 Lithuania A Lyga	FK Transinvest	0-1 HT 0-0	FK Zalgiris Vilnius
14/08/24 Lithuania A Lyga	FK Zalgiris Vilnius	2-0 HT 1-0	FK Transinvest
02/06/24 Lithuania A Lyga	FK Transinvest	1-3 HT 0-1	FK Zalgiris Vilnius
30/05/24 Lithuania Cup	FK Transinvest	2-1 HT 0-0	FK Zalgiris Vilnius

Standings · Lithuania A Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Kauno Zalgiris	19	8	7	4	34	15	31
2	Suduva Marijampole	19	7	9	3	21	16	30
3	Banga Gargzdai	19	8	6	5	22	14	30
4	FK Dziugas Telsiai	19	8	6	5	28	22	30
5	FK Transinvest	19	8	5	6	28	25	29
6	FK Zalgiris Vilnius	19	8	4	7	27	21	28
7	Hegelmann Litauen	19	3	10	6	20	29	19
8	Panevezys	20	5	4	11	18	37	19
9	FK Siauliai	19	2	7	10	18	37	13

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Zalgiris Vilnius	FK Transinvest
FK Siauliai	3-0 W	3-1 W
FK Dziugas Telsiai	0-0 D	2-3 L
Banga Gargzdai	0-3 L	1-3 L
Panevezys	3-0 W	2-1 W
FK Kauno Zalgiris	1-0 W	1-2 L
Hegelmann Litauen	1-3 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: FK Zalgiris Vilnius (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

LLWWWLDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/07	OFK Petrovac UEFA Conference League Qualifying	0-0	2-1	2	2	W
09/07	OFK Petrovac UEFA Conference League Qualifying	1-1	3-1	3	2	W
05/07	FK Siauliai Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	3-0	4	0	W
28/06	FK Dziugas Telsiai Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
20/06	Banga Gargzdai Lithuania A Lyga	0-1	0-3	7	2	L
16/06	Panevezys Lithuania A Lyga	2-0	3-0	4	4	W
12/06	FK Riteriai Lithuania A Lyga	3-0	3-2	7	2	W
31/05	FK Kauno Zalgiris Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	1-0	5	2	W
24/05	Hegelmann Litauen Lithuania A Lyga	1-2	1-3	4	6	L
17/05	FK Transinvest Lithuania A Lyga	0-1	0-1	6	5	L

FK Transinvest

WWLWWLDWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/07	Banga Gargzdai Lithuania A Lyga	1-1	1-3	9	6	L
06/07	Suduva Marijampole Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
29/06	FK Siauliai Lithuania A Lyga	1-1	3-1	5	2	W
24/06	DFK Dainava Lithuania Cup	1-1	1-1	14	6	D
20/06	FK Kauno Zalgiris Lithuania A Lyga	1-0	1-2	3	4	L
12/06	Panevezys Lithuania A Lyga	2-0	2-1	11	4	W
29/05	Hegelmann Litauen Lithuania A Lyga	2-0	2-1	5	3	W
24/05	FK Dziugas Telsiai Lithuania A Lyga	1-1	2-3	2	5	L
20/05	Hegelmann Litauen Lithuania Cup	0-0	2-0	11	5	W
17/05	FK Zalgiris Vilnius Lithuania A Lyga	1-0	1-0	0	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs FK Transinvest?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Zalgiris Vilnius win (47%). Probabilities: FK Zalgiris Vilnius 47%, draw 26%, FK Transinvest 27%.

How many goals are expected in FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs FK Transinvest?

The model expects 2.92 goals (FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1.68 · FK Transinvest 1.24), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs FK Transinvest?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.