Football · Lithuania A Lyga · 27/07, 17:45
Prediction: Hegelmann Litauen vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Team pages: Hegelmann Litauen · FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.74Total
Hegelmann Litauen1.05
FK Zalgiris Vilnius1.69
1X2
Hegelmann Litauen
Draw
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Hegelmann Litauen
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Hegelmann Litauen
2–2–2
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
(6 last)
- FK Zalgiris Vilnius1-3Hegelmann Litauen
- Hegelmann Litauen0-0FK Zalgiris Vilnius
- FK Zalgiris Vilnius1-0Hegelmann Litauen
- FK Zalgiris Vilnius3-1Hegelmann Litauen
- Hegelmann Litauen2-2FK Zalgiris Vilnius
- FK Zalgiris Vilnius0-1Hegelmann Litauen
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Hegelmann Litauen 1470 · FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1561
| Hegelmann Litauen | Draw | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 22% | 26% | 51% |
| Market | 23% | 25% | 52% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.74 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Zalgiris Vilnius (rating 1470 vs 1561).
- Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Hegelmann Litauen | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.7 | 1.8 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 1 | 0.8 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 4.5 | 2.2 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0.2 | 2.6 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Hegelmann Litauen 2–2–2 FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/05/26 Lithuania A Lyga | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 1-3 HT 1-2 | Hegelmann Litauen |
| 22/03/26 Lithuania A Lyga | Hegelmann Litauen | 0-0 HT 0-0 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius |
| 08/02/26 Europe Friendlies | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Hegelmann Litauen |
| 02/11/25 Lithuania A Lyga | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 3-1 HT 2-1 | Hegelmann Litauen |
| 24/08/25 Lithuania A Lyga | Hegelmann Litauen | 2-2 HT 2-0 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius |
| 24/06/25 Lithuania A Lyga | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Hegelmann Litauen |
Standings · Lithuania A Lyga
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FK Kauno Zalgiris | 20 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 38 | 15 | 34 |
| 2 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 21 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 33 | 24 | 34 |
| 3 | Suduva Marijampole | 20 | 8 | 9 | 3 | 26 | 17 | 33 |
| 4 | FK Dziugas Telsiai | 21 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 29 | 23 | 33 |
| 5 | FK Transinvest | 21 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 30 | 28 | 32 |
| 6 | Banga Gargzdai | 20 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 22 | 15 | 30 |
| 7 | Hegelmann Litauen | 22 | 4 | 10 | 8 | 25 | 37 | 22 |
| 8 | Panevezys | 20 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 18 | 37 | 19 |
| 9 | FK Siauliai | 21 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 18 | 43 | 13 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Hegelmann Litauen | FK Zalgiris Vilnius |
|---|---|---|
| FK Siauliai | 2-0 W | 3-0 W |
| Panevezys | 1-1 D | 3-0 W |
| Banga Gargzdai | 0-2 L | 0-3 L |
| FK Dziugas Telsiai | 1-1 D | 0-0 D |
| FK Kauno Zalgiris | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| FK Transinvest | 1-2 L | 3-1 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 3 D 2 L | 4 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: FK Zalgiris Vilnius (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hegelmann Litauen
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/07 | FK Siauliai Lithuania A Lyga |
2-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 8 | W |
| 20/07 | Suduva Marijampole Lithuania A Lyga |
0-3 | 1-5 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 16/07 | Paide Linnameeskond UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
0-2 | 0-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 09/07 | Paide Linnameeskond UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
1-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | D |
| 04/07 | Panevezys Lithuania A Lyga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 28/06 | Banga Gargzdai Lithuania A Lyga |
0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 17/06 | FK Dziugas Telsiai Lithuania A Lyga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 14/06 | FK Kauno Zalgiris Lithuania A Lyga |
1-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 29/05 | FK Transinvest Lithuania A Lyga |
0-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 24/05 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius Lithuania A Lyga |
2-1 | 3-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/07 | Dinamo Tbilisi UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
0-3 | 0-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 19/07 | FK Transinvest Lithuania A Lyga |
2-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 16/07 | OFK Petrovac UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
0-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 09/07 | OFK Petrovac UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
1-1 | 3-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 05/07 | FK Siauliai Lithuania A Lyga |
0-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 28/06 | FK Dziugas Telsiai Lithuania A Lyga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 20/06 | Banga Gargzdai Lithuania A Lyga |
0-1 | 0-3 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 16/06 | Panevezys Lithuania A Lyga |
2-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 12/06 | FK Riteriai Lithuania A Lyga |
3-0 | 3-2 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 31/05 | FK Kauno Zalgiris Lithuania A Lyga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Hegelmann Litauen vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius?
According to our model, the most likely result is an FK Zalgiris Vilnius win (52%). Probabilities: Hegelmann Litauen 23%, draw 26%, FK Zalgiris Vilnius 52%.
How many goals are expected in Hegelmann Litauen vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius?
The model expects 2.74 goals (Hegelmann Litauen 1.05 · FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1.69), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Hegelmann Litauen vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.