Football · Lithuania A Lyga · 02/08, 18:00

Prediction: Hegelmann Litauen vs FK Transinvest

Team pages: Hegelmann Litauen · FK Transinvest

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.97Total

Hegelmann Litauen1.21

FK Transinvest1.76

1X2

25% 25% 49%

Hegelmann Litauen Draw FK Transinvest

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Hegelmann Litauen 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

LDDLDDLLWL

FK Transinvest 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWWLDWDLLW

Head-to-head

Hegelmann Litauen 3–3 FK Transinvest (6 last)

FK Transinvest2-1Hegelmann Litauen
FK Transinvest2-0Hegelmann Litauen
Hegelmann Litauen3-1FK Transinvest
FK Transinvest0-1Hegelmann Litauen
Hegelmann Litauen4-1FK Transinvest
FK Transinvest3-2Hegelmann Litauen

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hegelmann Litauen 1460 · FK Transinvest 1507

	Hegelmann Litauen	Draw	FK Transinvest
Our model	25%	26%	49%
Market	26%	25%	50%

Estimated total (ours) 2.97 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Transinvest (rating 1460 vs 1507).
High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hegelmann Litauen	FK Transinvest
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.9	1.4 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1	0.9 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.8	2.3 / 6.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.2	3.6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.50

X3.60

21.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.95

2 (-0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
13:11 +10’	3.50	3.60	1.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Hegelmann Litauen 3–0–3 FK Transinvest

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/05/26 Lithuania A Lyga	FK Transinvest	2-1 HT 2-0	Hegelmann Litauen
20/05/26 Lithuania Cup	FK Transinvest	2-0 HT 0-0	Hegelmann Litauen
04/04/26 Lithuania A Lyga	Hegelmann Litauen	3-1 HT 1-0	FK Transinvest
27/05/25 Lithuania Cup	FK Transinvest	0-1 HT 0-1	Hegelmann Litauen
06/11/24 Lithuania A Lyga	Hegelmann Litauen	4-1 HT 2-0	FK Transinvest
19/10/24 Lithuania A Lyga	FK Transinvest	3-2 HT 2-0	Hegelmann Litauen

Standings · Lithuania A Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Kauno Zalgiris	20	9	7	4	38	15	34
2	FK Zalgiris Vilnius	21	10	4	7	33	24	34
3	Suduva Marijampole	20	8	9	3	26	17	33
4	FK Dziugas Telsiai	21	9	6	6	29	23	33
5	FK Transinvest	21	9	5	7	30	28	32
6	Banga Gargzdai	20	8	6	6	22	15	30
7	Hegelmann Litauen	22	4	10	8	25	37	22
8	Panevezys	20	5	4	11	18	37	19
9	FK Siauliai	21	2	7	12	18	43	13

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hegelmann Litauen	FK Transinvest
FK Zalgiris Vilnius	2-3 L	1-3 L
FK Siauliai	2-0 W	3-1 W
Suduva Marijampole	1-5 L	0-0 D
Panevezys	1-1 D	2-1 W
Banga Gargzdai	0-2 L	1-3 L
FK Dziugas Telsiai	1-1 D	1-0 W
FK Kauno Zalgiris	1-1 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 3 L	3 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: FK Transinvest (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Hegelmann Litauen

LDDLDDLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/07	FK Zalgiris Vilnius Lithuania A Lyga	1-1	2-3	6	3	L
24/07	FK Siauliai Lithuania A Lyga	2-0	2-0	5	8	W
20/07	Suduva Marijampole Lithuania A Lyga	0-3	1-5	2	2	L
16/07	Paide Linnameeskond UEFA Conference League Qualifying	0-2	0-3	6	4	L
09/07	Paide Linnameeskond UEFA Conference League Qualifying	1-1	1-1	1	0	D
04/07	Panevezys Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	1-1	3	2	D
28/06	Banga Gargzdai Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	0-2	6	3	L
17/06	FK Dziugas Telsiai Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	1-1	5	6	D
14/06	FK Kauno Zalgiris Lithuania A Lyga	1-1	1-1	8	4	D
29/05	FK Transinvest Lithuania A Lyga	0-2	1-2	6	3	L

FK Transinvest

LWWLDWDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	FK Dziugas Telsiai Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	1-0	5	2	W
19/07	FK Zalgiris Vilnius Lithuania A Lyga	0-2	1-3	10	4	L
12/07	Banga Gargzdai Lithuania A Lyga	1-1	1-3	9	6	L
06/07	Suduva Marijampole Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
29/06	FK Siauliai Lithuania A Lyga	1-1	3-1	5	2	W
24/06	DFK Dainava Lithuania Cup	1-1	1-1	14	6	D
20/06	FK Kauno Zalgiris Lithuania A Lyga	1-0	1-2	3	4	L
12/06	Panevezys Lithuania A Lyga	2-0	2-1	11	4	W
29/05	Hegelmann Litauen Lithuania A Lyga	2-0	2-1	5	3	W
24/05	FK Dziugas Telsiai Lithuania A Lyga	1-1	2-3	2	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hegelmann Litauen vs FK Transinvest?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FK Transinvest win (49%). Probabilities: Hegelmann Litauen 25%, draw 25%, FK Transinvest 49%.

How many goals are expected in Hegelmann Litauen vs FK Transinvest?

The model expects 2.97 goals (Hegelmann Litauen 1.21 · FK Transinvest 1.76), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Hegelmann Litauen vs FK Transinvest?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.