Football · Lithuania A Lyga · 20/07, 17:46
Prediction: Suduva Marijampole vs Hegelmann Litauen
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.43Total
Suduva Marijampole1.68
Hegelmann Litauen0.75
1X2
Suduva Marijampole
Draw
Hegelmann Litauen
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 54%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-0
Recent form · 10 last
Suduva Marijampole
5-5-0 (W-D-L)
Hegelmann Litauen
1-5-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Suduva Marijampole
3–2–1
Hegelmann Litauen
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Suduva Marijampole 1563 · Hegelmann Litauen 1468
| Suduva Marijampole | Draw | Hegelmann Litauen | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 26% | 15% |
| Market | 59% | 26% | 16% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.43 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Suduva Marijampole (rating 1563 vs 1468).
- H2H favours Suduva Marijampole: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Suduva Marijampole | Hegelmann Litauen | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 0.8 | 1 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.3 | 0.5 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/70/10% | 10/70/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 5.2 | 1.6 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.6 / 0 | 3.5 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Suduva Marijampole 3–2–1 Hegelmann Litauen
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/26 Lithuania A Lyga | Hegelmann Litauen | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Suduva Marijampole |
| 14/03/26 Lithuania A Lyga | Suduva Marijampole | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Hegelmann Litauen |
| 08/11/25 Lithuania A Lyga | Hegelmann Litauen | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Suduva Marijampole |
| 30/08/25 Lithuania A Lyga | Suduva Marijampole | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Hegelmann Litauen |
| 30/06/25 Lithuania A Lyga | Hegelmann Litauen | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Suduva Marijampole |
| 27/04/25 Lithuania A Lyga | Suduva Marijampole | 4-0 HT 4-0 | Hegelmann Litauen |
Standings · Lithuania A Lyga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FK Kauno Zalgiris | 20 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 38 | 15 | 34 |
| 2 | Suduva Marijampole | 19 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 21 | 16 | 30 |
| 3 | Banga Gargzdai | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 14 | 30 |
| 4 | FK Dziugas Telsiai | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 28 | 22 | 30 |
| 5 | FK Transinvest | 19 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 28 | 25 | 29 |
| 6 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 27 | 21 | 28 |
| 7 | Hegelmann Litauen | 19 | 3 | 10 | 6 | 20 | 29 | 19 |
| 8 | Panevezys | 20 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 18 | 37 | 19 |
| 9 | FK Siauliai | 20 | 2 | 7 | 11 | 18 | 41 | 13 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Suduva Marijampole | Hegelmann Litauen |
|---|---|---|
| FK Transinvest | 0-0 D | 1-2 L |
| Panevezys | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| FK Dziugas Telsiai | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Banga Gargzdai | 0-0 D | 0-2 L |
| FK Kauno Zalgiris | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 1-1 D | 3-1 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 3 D 0 L | 1 W 3 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Suduva Marijampole (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Suduva Marijampole
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07 | FK Transinvest Lithuania A Lyga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 29/06 | Panevezys Lithuania A Lyga |
0-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 21/06 | FK Dziugas Telsiai Lithuania A Lyga |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 16/06 | FK Siauliai Lithuania A Lyga |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 13/06 | Banga Gargzdai Lithuania A Lyga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | D |
| 29/05 | FK Riteriai Lithuania A Lyga |
2-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 23/05 | FK Kauno Zalgiris Lithuania A Lyga |
0-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 16/05 | Hegelmann Litauen Lithuania A Lyga |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 10/05 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius Lithuania A Lyga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 06/05 | FK Transinvest Lithuania A Lyga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
Hegelmann Litauen
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/07 | Paide Linnameeskond UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
0-2 | 0-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 09/07 | Paide Linnameeskond UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
1-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | D |
| 04/07 | Panevezys Lithuania A Lyga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 28/06 | Banga Gargzdai Lithuania A Lyga |
0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 17/06 | FK Dziugas Telsiai Lithuania A Lyga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 14/06 | FK Kauno Zalgiris Lithuania A Lyga |
1-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 29/05 | FK Transinvest Lithuania A Lyga |
0-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 24/05 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius Lithuania A Lyga |
2-1 | 3-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 20/05 | FK Transinvest Lithuania Cup |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 16/05 | Suduva Marijampole Lithuania A Lyga |
1-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Suduva Marijampole vs Hegelmann Litauen?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Suduva Marijampole win (59%). Probabilities: Suduva Marijampole 59%, draw 26%, Hegelmann Litauen 16%.
How many goals are expected in Suduva Marijampole vs Hegelmann Litauen?
The model expects 2.43 goals (Suduva Marijampole 1.68 · Hegelmann Litauen 0.75), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Suduva Marijampole vs Hegelmann Litauen?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.