Prediction: Uruguay Montevideo vs Club Oriental
| Uruguay Montevideo | Draw | Club Oriental | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 31% | 29% | 40% |
| Market | 31% | 29% | 40% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Club Oriental (rating 1442 vs 1496).
- H2H favours Club Oriental: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 12.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Uruguay Montevideo | Club Oriental | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1.5 | 1.4 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.7 | 0.6 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/50/40% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 5.7 | 2.6 / 4.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 6.9 / 0.8 | 5.3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Uruguay Montevideo 2–1–3 Club Oriental
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09/25 Uruguay Segunda | Uruguay Montevideo | 0-4 HT 0-1 | Club Oriental |
| 22/06/25 Uruguay Segunda | Club Oriental | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Uruguay Montevideo |
| 14/09/24 Uruguay Segunda | Club Oriental | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Uruguay Montevideo |
| 02/06/24 Uruguay Segunda | Uruguay Montevideo | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Club Oriental |
| 21/04/24 Uruguay Segunda | Club Oriental | 3-2 HT 2-0 | Uruguay Montevideo |
| 25/10/23 Uruguay Segunda | Uruguay Montevideo | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Club Oriental |
Standings · Uruguay Segunda · Segunda Division 2026, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club Oriental | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 13 |
| 2 | Plaza Colonia | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 12 |
| 3 | Colon FC | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 9 |
| 4 | Rentistas | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 9 |
| 5 | Miramar Misiones | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 5 |
| 6 | Paysandu FC | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 4 |
| 7 | CA River Plate | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 4 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Uruguay Montevideo | Club Oriental |
|---|---|---|
| Colon FC | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| Atletico Fenix Montevideo | 3-2 W | 2-2 D |
| Rentistas | 0-1 L | 3-0 W |
| Miramar Misiones | 1-3 L | 2-2 D |
| Tacuarembo | 0-1 L | 2-0 W |
| Plaza Colonia | 2-0 W | 1-3 L |
| La Luz | 0-2 L | 0-0 D |
| Cerrito | 2-2 D | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 5 L | 2 W 5 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Club Oriental (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Uruguay Montevideo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07 | Colon FC Uruguay Segunda |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 27/06 | Atletico Fenix Montevideo Uruguay Segunda |
1-2 | 3-2 | 10 | 11 | W |
| 21/06 | Rentistas Uruguay Segunda |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 10 | L |
| 13/06 | Miramar Misiones Uruguay Segunda |
0-2 | 1-3 | 7 | 8 | L |
| 07/06 | Tacuarembo Uruguay Segunda |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 30/05 | Plaza Colonia Uruguay Segunda |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 24/05 | La Luz Uruguay Segunda |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 9 | L |
| 16/05 | Cerrito Uruguay Segunda |
0-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 9 | D |
| 09/05 | CA Atenas Uruguay Segunda |
1-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 8 | L |
| 26/04 | Tacuarembo Uruguay Segunda |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 7 | D |
Club Oriental
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | CA River Plate Uruguay Segunda |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 28/06 | Colon FC Uruguay Segunda |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 20/06 | Atletico Fenix Montevideo Uruguay Segunda |
1-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 14/06 | Rentistas Uruguay Segunda |
0-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 08/06 | Miramar Misiones Uruguay Segunda |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 8 | D |
| 01/06 | Tacuarembo Uruguay Segunda |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 22/05 | Plaza Colonia Uruguay Segunda |
1-1 | 1-3 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 18/05 | La Luz Uruguay Segunda |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 10/05 | Cerrito Uruguay Segunda |
1-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 8 | D |
| 03/05 | Atletico Fenix Montevideo Uruguay Segunda |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 7 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Uruguay Montevideo vs Club Oriental?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Club Oriental win (40%). Probabilities: Uruguay Montevideo 31%, draw 29%, Club Oriental 40%.
How many goals are expected in Uruguay Montevideo vs Club Oriental?
The model expects 2.63 goals (Uruguay Montevideo 1.22 · Club Oriental 1.41), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Uruguay Montevideo vs Club Oriental?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.