Prediction: Uruguay Montevideo vs CA River Plate
| Uruguay Montevideo | Draw | CA River Plate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 28% | 27% | 44% |
| Market | 28% | 28% | 44% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CA River Plate (rating 1455 vs 1525).
- High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 12 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Uruguay Montevideo | CA River Plate | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1.5 | 1.7 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.6 | 1.3 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 50/40/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 5.3 | 3.7 / 6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 6.6 / 0.8 | 5.4 / 0.2 |
Standings · Uruguay Segunda · Segunda Division 2026, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club Oriental | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 13 |
| 2 | Plaza Colonia | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 12 |
| 3 | Colon FC | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 9 |
| 4 | Rentistas | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 9 |
| 5 | Miramar Misiones | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 5 |
| 6 | Paysandu FC | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 4 |
| 7 | CA River Plate | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 4 |
Common opponents 9 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Uruguay Montevideo | CA River Plate |
|---|---|---|
| Club Oriental | 1-1 D | 2-1 W |
| Colon FC | 0-1 L | 1-2 L |
| Atletico Fenix Montevideo | 3-2 W | 1-3 L |
| Rentistas | 0-1 L | 2-1 W |
| Miramar Misiones | 1-3 L | 1-1 D |
| Plaza Colonia | 2-0 W | 3-2 W |
| La Luz | 0-2 L | 0-0 D |
| Cerrito | 2-2 D | 6-4 W |
| CA Atenas | 1-2 L | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 5 L | 4 W 2 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: CA River Plate (5 of 9 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Uruguay Montevideo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Club Oriental Uruguay Segunda |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 06/07 | Colon FC Uruguay Segunda |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 27/06 | Atletico Fenix Montevideo Uruguay Segunda |
1-2 | 3-2 | 10 | 11 | W |
| 21/06 | Rentistas Uruguay Segunda |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 10 | L |
| 13/06 | Miramar Misiones Uruguay Segunda |
0-2 | 1-3 | 7 | 8 | L |
| 07/06 | Tacuarembo Uruguay Segunda |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 30/05 | Plaza Colonia Uruguay Segunda |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 24/05 | La Luz Uruguay Segunda |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 9 | L |
| 16/05 | Cerrito Uruguay Segunda |
0-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 9 | D |
| 09/05 | CA Atenas Uruguay Segunda |
1-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 8 | L |
CA River Plate
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Plaza Colonia Uruguay Segunda |
2-1 | 3-2 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 05/07 | Club Oriental Uruguay Segunda |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 28/06 | La Luz Uruguay Segunda |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 20/06 | Colon FC Uruguay Segunda |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 14/06 | Cerrito Uruguay Segunda |
5-3 | 6-4 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 06/06 | Atletico Fenix Montevideo Uruguay Segunda |
1-1 | 1-3 | 9 | 8 | L |
| 31/05 | CA Atenas Uruguay Segunda |
0-1 | 0-2 | 8 | 8 | L |
| 23/05 | Rentistas Uruguay Segunda |
2-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 16/05 | Paysandu FC Uruguay Segunda |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 10/05 | Miramar Misiones Uruguay Segunda |
1-0 | 1-1 | 10 | 7 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Uruguay Montevideo vs CA River Plate?
According to our model, the most likely result is an CA River Plate win (44%). Probabilities: Uruguay Montevideo 28%, draw 28%, CA River Plate 44%.
How many goals are expected in Uruguay Montevideo vs CA River Plate?
The model expects 2.78 goals (Uruguay Montevideo 1.22 · CA River Plate 1.56), with a 56% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Uruguay Montevideo vs CA River Plate?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.