Football · Uruguay Segunda · 12/07, 17:00
Prediction: CA Atenas vs Rentistas
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.52Total
CA Atenas1.25
Rentistas1.27
1X2
CA Atenas
Draw
Rentistas
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
CA Atenas
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Rentistas
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
CA Atenas
1–5
Rentistas
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · CA Atenas 1537 · Rentistas 1483
| CA Atenas | Draw | Rentistas | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 29% | 36% |
| Market | 35% | 30% | 35% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.52 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CA Atenas (rating 1537 vs 1483).
- H2H favours Rentistas: 5-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 11.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| CA Atenas | Rentistas | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 1.2 | 0.9 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.7 | 0.4 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 22/56/22% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1 / 3.2 | 2.6 / 5.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.3 / 0.3 | 5.9 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · CA Atenas 1–0–5 Rentistas
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09/25 Uruguay Segunda | Rentistas | 2-0 HT 1-0 | CA Atenas |
| 29/06/25 Uruguay Segunda | CA Atenas | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Rentistas |
| 05/04/25 Uruguay Segunda | Rentistas | 2-0 HT 0-0 | CA Atenas |
| 29/09/24 Uruguay Segunda | CA Atenas | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Rentistas |
| 15/06/24 Uruguay Segunda | Rentistas | 2-0 HT 1-0 | CA Atenas |
| 06/04/24 Uruguay Segunda | CA Atenas | 0-1 | Rentistas |
Standings · Uruguay Segunda · Segunda Division 2026, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club Oriental | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 13 |
| 2 | Plaza Colonia | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 12 |
| 3 | Colon FC | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 9 |
| 4 | Rentistas | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 9 |
| 5 | Miramar Misiones | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 5 |
| 6 | Paysandu FC | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 4 |
| 7 | CA River Plate | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 4 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | CA Atenas | Rentistas |
|---|---|---|
| Miramar Misiones | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Tacuarembo | 2-0 W | 1-1 D |
| CA River Plate | 2-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Paysandu FC | 3-2 W | 1-2 L |
| Huracan DPA | 0-1 L | 2-1 W |
| Uruguay Montevideo | 2-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Atletico Fenix Montevideo | 1-4 L | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 2 L | 3 W 2 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
CA Atenas
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07 | Miramar Misiones Uruguay Segunda |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 27/06 | Tacuarembo Uruguay Segunda |
2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 21/06 | Plaza Colonia Uruguay Segunda |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 14/06 | La Luz Uruguay Segunda |
2-0 | 4-0 | 0 | 2 | W |
| 07/06 | Cerrito Uruguay Segunda |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 31/05 | CA River Plate Uruguay Segunda |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 23/05 | Paysandu FC Uruguay Segunda |
1-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 17/05 | Huracan DPA Uruguay Segunda |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 09/05 | Uruguay Montevideo Uruguay Segunda |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 28/04 | Atletico Fenix Montevideo Uruguay Segunda |
0-2 | 1-4 | 8 | 7 | L |
Rentistas
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Paysandu FC Uruguay Segunda |
1-1 | 1-2 | 10 | 5 | L |
| 27/06 | Huracan DPA Uruguay Segunda |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 21/06 | Uruguay Montevideo Uruguay Segunda |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 10 | W |
| 14/06 | Club Oriental Uruguay Segunda |
0-0 | 0-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 07/06 | Colon FC Uruguay Segunda |
0-1 | 0-2 | 11 | 10 | L |
| 31/05 | Atletico Fenix Montevideo Uruguay Segunda |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 23/05 | CA River Plate Uruguay Segunda |
1-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 17/05 | Miramar Misiones Uruguay Segunda |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 8 | W |
| 10/05 | Tacuarembo Uruguay Segunda |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 30/04 | Miramar Misiones Uruguay Segunda |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in CA Atenas vs Rentistas?
According to our model, the most likely result is a CA Atenas win (35%). Probabilities: CA Atenas 35%, draw 30%, Rentistas 35%.
How many goals are expected in CA Atenas vs Rentistas?
The model expects 2.52 goals (CA Atenas 1.25 · Rentistas 1.27), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in CA Atenas vs Rentistas?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.