Football · Panama LPF · 09/08, 03:30

Prediction: UMECIT vs CD Arabe Unido

Team pages: UMECIT · CD Arabe Unido

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.39Total

UMECIT1.32

CD Arabe Unido1.06

1X2

41% 30% 29%

UMECIT Draw CD Arabe Unido

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

UMECIT 1-6-3 (W-D-L)

DDWDDLDLDL

CD Arabe Unido 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WWWWLDDLDL

Head-to-head

UMECIT 2–2–2 CD Arabe Unido (6 last)

CD Arabe Unido1-1UMECIT
UMECIT1-0CD Arabe Unido
CD Arabe Unido1-1UMECIT
UMECIT1-0CD Arabe Unido
UMECIT0-1CD Arabe Unido
CD Arabe Unido1-0UMECIT

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · UMECIT 1508 · CD Arabe Unido 1485

	UMECIT	Draw	CD Arabe Unido
Our model	41%	30%	29%
Market	41%	30%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.39 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 10.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	UMECIT	CD Arabe Unido
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.6	1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	0.3 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/70/20%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.4	2 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.2	5.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.00

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 21.93

Under 21.88

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 6 moves · last 09:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 2.15▲	Pinn 2.28 ★
X	3.00 → 3.00	Pinn 3.12
2	3.70 → 3.10▼	Pinn 3.14

See the full journey (6)

Bet365 margin 12.1% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
20:34 +2’	1.95	3.00	3.70
22:37	2.25▲	2.90▼	3.10▼
13:13 +2’	1.85▼	3.10▲	4.00▲
17:40 +8’	2.10▲	3.00▼	3.25▼
00:08 +2’	2.10	3.10▲	3.10▼
09:20 +8’	2.15▲	3.00▼	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:35 +1’	2.49	3.03	2.78
22:37	2.39▼	3.05▲	2.89▲
11:15	1.83▼	3.23▲	3.78▲
13:14 +1’	1.85▲	3.30▲	3.62▼
15:25	1.96▲	3.18▼	3.39▼
00:09 +1’	2.21▲	3.08▼	2.94▼
04:07 +1’	2.24▲	3.14▲	3.00▲
19:17 +11’	2.25▲	3.14	3.03▲
22:37 +14’	2.24▼	3.14	3.07▲
01:45 +3’	2.28▲	3.12▼	3.14▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · UMECIT 2–2–2 CD Arabe Unido

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Panama LPF	CD Arabe Unido	1-1 HT 0-0	UMECIT
20/01/26 Panama LPF	UMECIT	1-0 HT 1-0	CD Arabe Unido
19/10/25 Panama LPF	CD Arabe Unido	1-1 HT 0-0	UMECIT
29/07/25 Panama LPF	UMECIT	1-0 HT 0-0	CD Arabe Unido
10/03/25 Panama LPF	UMECIT	0-1 HT 0-1	CD Arabe Unido
08/09/24 Panama LPF	CD Arabe Unido	1-0 HT 0-0	UMECIT

Standings · Panama LPF · Apertura, East

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Plaza Amador	2	1	1	0	4	2	4
2	Alianza FC Panama	2	1	1	0	1	0	4
3	Tauro FC	2	0	2	0	1	1	2
3	UMECIT	2	0	2	0	1	1	2
5	CD Arabe Unido	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
6	Sporting San Miguelito	2	0	1	1	0	2	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	UMECIT	CD Arabe Unido
Tauro FC	1-1 D	0-4 L
Alianza FC Panama	0-0 D	0-1 L
Plaza Amador	0-3 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: UMECIT (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

UMECIT

DDWDDLDLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/08	CD Olimpia CONCACAF Central American Cup	1-1	1-2	2	4	L
02/08	Tauro FC Panama LPF	1-0	1-1	7	9	D
30/07	Deportivo Saprissa CONCACAF Central American Cup	0-1	1-2	8	5	L
26/07	Alianza FC Panama Panama LPF	0-0	0-0	2	1	D
16/05	Plaza Amador Panama LPF	0-1	0-3	1	9	L
10/05	Plaza Amador Panama LPF	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
06/05	Union Cocle Panama LPF	0-0	1-1	7	4	D
03/05	Tauro FC Panama LPF	2-2	5-2	5	5	W
26/04	Plaza Amador Panama LPF	0-0	2-2	2	7	D
19/04	CD Arabe Unido Panama LPF	0-0	1-1	6	4	D

CD Arabe Unido

WWWWLDDLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Alianza FC Panama Panama LPF	0-1	0-1	2	5	L
25/07	Plaza Amador Panama LPF	2-0	2-2	1	6	D
03/05	Plaza Amador Panama LPF	0-0	0-3	2	6	L
26/04	Alianza FC Panama Panama LPF	0-2	2-2	4	6	D
19/04	UMECIT Panama LPF	0-0	1-1	4	4	D
11/04	Tauro FC Panama LPF	0-0	0-4	5	7	L
06/04	Sporting San Miguelito Panama LPF	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
31/03	CA Independiente de la Chorrera Panama LPF	1-0	2-0	6	9	W
22/03	CD Universitario Panama LPF	0-0	1-0	4	6	W
14/03	San Francisco FC Panama LPF	0-0	1-0	3	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in UMECIT vs CD Arabe Unido?

According to our model, the most likely result is a UMECIT win (41%). Probabilities: UMECIT 41%, draw 30%, CD Arabe Unido 29%.

How many goals are expected in UMECIT vs CD Arabe Unido?

The model expects 2.39 goals (UMECIT 1.32 · CD Arabe Unido 1.06), with a 54% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in UMECIT vs CD Arabe Unido?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.