Football · Panama LPF · 16/08, 23:00

Prediction: Herrera FC vs Veraguas CD

Team pages: Herrera FC · Veraguas CD

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.47Total

Herrera FC1.04

Veraguas CD1.43

1X2

27% 28% 45%

Herrera FC Draw Veraguas CD

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Herrera FC 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LLLLDLLWDL

Veraguas CD 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

LWWDWDDDWW

Head-to-head

Herrera FC 1–5 Veraguas CD (6 last)

Herrera FC1-2Veraguas CD
Veraguas CD5-0Herrera FC
Herrera FC0-2Veraguas CD
Veraguas CD4-1Herrera FC
Herrera FC3-0Veraguas CD
Veraguas CD2-1Herrera FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Herrera FC 1412 · Veraguas CD 1578

	Herrera FC	Draw	Veraguas CD
Our model	26%	29%	45%
Market	27%	27%	46%

Estimated total (ours) 2.47 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Veraguas CD (rating 1412 vs 1578).
H2H favours Veraguas CD: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 11.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Herrera FC	Veraguas CD
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.8	1 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 1	0.4 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.8	1.7 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.6 / 0.3	6.2 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

13.30

X3.30

21.95

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.77

2 (-0.5)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.05

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 16:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.10 → 3.30▼	Pinn 3.42
X	3.40 → 3.30▼	Bet365 3.30
2	1.73 → 1.95▲	Pinn 2.05 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.9% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
06:34 +8’	4.10	3.40	1.73
08:40 +4’	3.40▼	3.25▼	1.95▲
16:11 +4’	3.30▼	3.30▲	1.95

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
08:43 +1’	3.25	3.16	2.14
16:15	3.47▲	3.22▲	2.03▼
04:24	3.42▼	3.20▼	2.05▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Herrera FC 1–0–5 Veraguas CD

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/04/26 Panama LPF	Herrera FC	1-2 HT 0-1	Veraguas CD
09/02/26 Panama LPF	Veraguas CD	5-0 HT 3-0	Herrera FC
12/10/25 Panama LPF	Herrera FC	0-2 HT 0-1	Veraguas CD
19/07/25 Panama LPF	Veraguas CD	4-1 HT 0-0	Herrera FC
10/05/25 Panama LPF	Herrera FC	3-0 HT 1-0	Veraguas CD
21/01/25 Panama LPF	Veraguas CD	2-1 HT 1-0	Herrera FC

Standings · Panama LPF · Apertura, West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	San Francisco FC	4	3	0	1	8	5	9
2	Veraguas CD	3	2	1	0	4	2	7
3	Herrera FC	3	1	1	1	2	3	4
4	CA Independiente de la Chorrera	4	0	3	1	4	5	3
5	Union Cocle	3	1	0	2	2	3	3
6	CD Universitario	3	0	1	2	4	6	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Herrera FC	Veraguas CD
San Francisco FC	1-3 L	0-1 L
CA Independiente de la Chorrera	0-0 D	1-1 D
Union Cocle	1-0 W	1-0 W
CD Universitario	0-2 L	2-1 W
Alianza FC Panama	1-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Veraguas CD (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Herrera FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	San Francisco FC Panama LPF	0-2	1-3	3	6	L
04/08	CA Independiente de la Chorrera Panama LPF	0-0	0-0	8	3	D
26/07	Union Cocle Panama LPF	1-0	1-0	7	10	W
02/05	Union Cocle Panama LPF	0-2	0-4	5	7	L
26/04	San Francisco FC Panama LPF	1-1	1-2	3	3	L
21/04	CA Independiente de la Chorrera Panama LPF	0-1	2-2	5	3	D
12/04	Veraguas CD Panama LPF	0-1	1-2	2	18	L
07/04	CD Universitario Panama LPF	0-2	0-2	9	2	L
29/03	Alianza FC Panama Panama LPF	0-1	1-2	1	3	L
24/03	UMECIT Panama LPF	0-0	0-1	5	4	L

Veraguas CD

LWWDWDDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Union Cocle Panama LPF	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
03/08	CD Universitario Panama LPF	0-1	2-1	5	8	W
27/07	CA Independiente de la Chorrera Panama LPF	1-0	1-1	3	6	D
17/05	Alianza FC Panama Panama LPF	0-0	1-1	9	2	D
10/05	Alianza FC Panama Panama LPF	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
02/05	CA Independiente de la Chorrera Panama LPF	1-0	1-0	2	6	W
26/04	Union Cocle Panama LPF	1-0	1-1	0	7	D
19/04	CD Universitario Panama LPF	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
12/04	Herrera FC Panama LPF	1-0	2-1	5	18	W
04/04	San Francisco FC Panama LPF	0-1	0-1	5	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Herrera FC vs Veraguas CD?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Veraguas CD win (45%). Probabilities: Herrera FC 27%, draw 28%, Veraguas CD 45%.

How many goals are expected in Herrera FC vs Veraguas CD?

The model expects 2.47 goals (Herrera FC 1.04 · Veraguas CD 1.43), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Herrera FC vs Veraguas CD?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.