Football · Panama LPF · 17/08, 01:15

Prediction: Alianza FC Panama vs Plaza Amador

Team pages: Alianza FC Panama · Plaza Amador

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.42Total

Alianza FC Panama1

Plaza Amador1.41

1X2

26% 29% 45%

Alianza FC Panama Draw Plaza Amador

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Alianza FC Panama 3-6-1 (W-D-L)

WDDDDDWLDW

Plaza Amador 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WDWDDLWWWW

Head-to-head

Alianza FC Panama 1–3–2 Plaza Amador (6 last)

Alianza FC Panama2-2Plaza Amador
Plaza Amador1-1Alianza FC Panama
Alianza FC Panama1-1Plaza Amador
Plaza Amador2-0Alianza FC Panama
Plaza Amador0-1Alianza FC Panama
Alianza FC Panama2-3Plaza Amador

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Alianza FC Panama 1538 · Plaza Amador 1599

	Alianza FC Panama	Draw	Plaza Amador
Our model	26%	29%	45%
Market	26%	28%	46%

Estimated total (ours) 2.42 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Plaza Amador (rating 1538 vs 1599).
H2H favours Plaza Amador: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Alianza FC Panama	Plaza Amador
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 0.9	2.6 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.3	0.9 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.8	2.8 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.1	5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.40

X3.20

21.95

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.77

2 (-0.5)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 21:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.40▲	Bet365 3.40
X	3.10 → 3.20▲	Bet365 3.20
2	2.15 → 1.95▼	Pinn 2.16 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.9% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
07:45 +62’	3.00	3.10	2.15
11:29 +9’	3.60▲	3.20▲	1.90▼
21:15 +6’	3.40▼	3.20	1.95▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
08:46 +1’	3.60	3.24	1.98
21:16 +5’	3.29▼	3.08▼	2.16▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.25

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Alianza FC Panama 1–3–2 Plaza Amador

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
24/05/26 Panama LPF	Alianza FC Panama	2-2 HT 1-1	Plaza Amador
12/04/26 Panama LPF	Plaza Amador	1-1 HT 0-1	Alianza FC Panama
08/02/26 Panama LPF	Alianza FC Panama	1-1 HT 0-1	Plaza Amador
30/11/25 Panama LPF	Plaza Amador	2-0 HT 1-0	Alianza FC Panama
26/10/25 Panama LPF	Plaza Amador	0-1 HT 0-0	Alianza FC Panama
09/08/25 Panama LPF	Alianza FC Panama	2-3 HT 1-2	Plaza Amador

Standings · Panama LPF · Apertura, East

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Plaza Amador	3	2	1	0	7	4	7
2	Alianza FC Panama	3	1	2	0	1	0	5
3	UMECIT	3	0	3	0	1	1	3
4	Tauro FC	3	0	2	1	3	4	2
5	CD Arabe Unido	3	0	2	1	2	3	2
6	Sporting San Miguelito	3	0	2	1	0	2	2

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Alianza FC Panama	Plaza Amador
UMECIT	1-0 W	3-0 W
Sporting San Miguelito	0-0 D	2-0 W
CD Arabe Unido	1-0 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 0 L	2 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Plaza Amador (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Alianza FC Panama

WDDDDDWLDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/08	UMECIT CONCACAF Central American Cup	1-0	1-0	3	1	W
10/08	Sporting San Miguelito Panama LPF	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
06/08	Deportivo Saprissa CONCACAF Central American Cup	0-1	1-2	5	4	L
01/08	CD Arabe Unido Panama LPF	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
26/07	UMECIT Panama LPF	0-0	0-0	1	1	D
24/05	Plaza Amador Panama LPF	1-1	2-2	7	6	D
17/05	Veraguas CD Panama LPF	0-0	1-1	2	2	D
10/05	Veraguas CD Panama LPF	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
06/05	CA Independiente de la Chorrera Panama LPF	1-0	2-2	7	5	D
03/05	Sporting San Miguelito Panama LPF	1-1	3-2	5	0	W

Plaza Amador

WDWDDLWWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/08	Xelaju CONCACAF Central American Cup	2-1	5-2	6	5	W
09/08	Tauro FC Panama LPF	2-1	3-2	2	6	W
05/08	CD Luis Angel Firpo CONCACAF Central American Cup	1-0	2-1	8	4	W
02/08	Sporting San Miguelito Panama LPF	1-0	2-0	3	0	W
29/07	Diriangen CONCACAF Central American Cup	0-3	2-4	13	5	L
25/07	CD Arabe Unido Panama LPF	0-2	2-2	0	6	D
24/05	Alianza FC Panama Panama LPF	1-1	2-2	9	6	D
16/05	UMECIT Panama LPF	1-0	3-0	1	9	W
10/05	UMECIT Panama LPF	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
03/05	CD Arabe Unido Panama LPF	0-0	3-0	2	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Alianza FC Panama vs Plaza Amador?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Plaza Amador win (45%). Probabilities: Alianza FC Panama 26%, draw 29%, Plaza Amador 45%.

How many goals are expected in Alianza FC Panama vs Plaza Amador?

The model expects 2.42 goals (Alianza FC Panama 1 · Plaza Amador 1.41), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Alianza FC Panama vs Plaza Amador?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.