Football · Panama LPF · 11/08, 03:00

Prediction: CA Independiente de la Chorrera vs CD Universitario

Team pages: CA Independiente de la Chorrera · CD Universitario

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.47Total

CA Independiente de la Chorrera1.47

CD Universitario1

1X2

47% 28% 25%

CA Independiente de la Chorrera Draw CD Universitario

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

CA Independiente de la Chorrera 1-6-3 (W-D-L)

LLDDDWLDDD

CD Universitario 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

LLLWWLLLLL

Head-to-head

CA Independiente de la Chorrera 2–2–2 CD Universitario (6 last)

CA Independiente de la Chorrera3-2CD Universitario
CD Universitario1-1CA Independiente de la Chorrera
CA Independiente de la Chorrera2-0CD Universitario
CD Universitario3-2CA Independiente de la Chorrera
CD Universitario1-0CA Independiente de la Chorrera
CA Independiente de la Chorrera0-0CD Universitario

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CA Independiente de la Chorrera 1487 · CD Universitario 1423

	CA Independiente de la Chorrera	Draw	CD Universitario
Our model	47%	29%	24%
Market	47%	28%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.47 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CA Independiente de la Chorrera (rating 1487 vs 1423).
Cards-heavy: 11.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CA Independiente de la Chorrera	CD Universitario
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.1	1.3 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.4	0.7 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.8	2.1 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6 / 0.2	5.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.90

X3.20

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 23:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 1.90▲	Bet365 1.90
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	3.75 → 3.60▼	Pinn 4.92 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
21:17 +3’	1.85	3.20	3.75
23:05	1.90▲	3.20	3.60▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:19	2.33	2.93	3.12
04:56	2.28▼	2.94▲	3.20▲
23:44	2.30▲	2.90▼	3.22▲
07:22 +1’	2.33▲	2.79▼	3.23▲
09:27	2.26▼	2.89▲	3.30▲
10:30 +1’	1.68▼	3.11▲	4.92▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CA Independiente de la Chorrera 2–2–2 CD Universitario

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 Panama LPF	CA Independiente de la Chorrera	3-2 HT 1-0	CD Universitario
25/01/26 Panama LPF	CD Universitario	1-1 HT 0-1	CA Independiente de la Chorrera
12/10/25 Panama LPF	CA Independiente de la Chorrera	2-0 HT 1-0	CD Universitario
20/07/25 Panama LPF	CD Universitario	3-2 HT 3-2	CA Independiente de la Chorrera
06/04/25 Panama LPF	CD Universitario	1-0 HT 0-0	CA Independiente de la Chorrera
15/02/25 Panama LPF	CA Independiente de la Chorrera	0-0 HT 0-0	CD Universitario

Standings · Panama LPF · Apertura, West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	San Francisco FC	3	2	0	1	6	4	6
2	Veraguas CD	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
3	Herrera FC	3	1	1	1	2	3	4
4	Union Cocle	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
5	CA Independiente de la Chorrera	2	0	2	0	1	1	2
6	CD Universitario	2	0	0	2	2	4	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CA Independiente de la Chorrera	CD Universitario
Herrera FC	0-0 D	2-0 W
Veraguas CD	1-1 D	1-2 L
San Francisco FC	0-0 D	1-2 L
Union Cocle	0-0 D	2-0 W
CD Arabe Unido	0-2 L	0-1 L
Plaza Amador	0-1 L	3-4 L
Record vs common	0 W 4 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: CD Universitario (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CA Independiente de la Chorrera

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/08	Herrera FC Panama LPF	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
27/07	Veraguas CD Panama LPF	0-1	1-1	5	6	D
06/05	Alianza FC Panama Panama LPF	0-1	2-2	10	5	D
02/05	Veraguas CD Panama LPF	0-1	0-1	7	6	L
26/04	CD Universitario Panama LPF	1-0	3-2	4	6	W
21/04	Herrera FC Panama LPF	1-0	2-2	6	3	D
12/04	San Francisco FC Panama LPF	0-0	0-0	0	9	D
05/04	Union Cocle Panama LPF	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
31/03	CD Arabe Unido Panama LPF	0-1	0-2	4	9	L
22/03	Plaza Amador Panama LPF	0-0	0-1	3	11	L

CD Universitario

LLLWWLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/08	Veraguas CD Panama LPF	1-0	1-2	6	8	L
26/07	San Francisco FC Panama LPF	0-2	1-2	4	5	L
02/05	San Francisco FC Panama LPF	2-4	2-5	9	8	L
26/04	CA Independiente de la Chorrera Panama LPF	0-1	2-3	4	6	L
19/04	Veraguas CD Panama LPF	0-0	0-1	6	5	L
13/04	Union Cocle Panama LPF	1-0	2-0	2	9	W
07/04	Herrera FC Panama LPF	2-0	2-0	7	2	W
28/03	Tauro FC Panama LPF	0-1	0-2	10	5	L
22/03	CD Arabe Unido Panama LPF	0-0	0-1	3	6	L
15/03	Plaza Amador Panama LPF	1-4	3-4	5	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CA Independiente de la Chorrera vs CD Universitario?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CA Independiente de la Chorrera win (47%). Probabilities: CA Independiente de la Chorrera 47%, draw 28%, CD Universitario 25%.

How many goals are expected in CA Independiente de la Chorrera vs CD Universitario?

The model expects 2.47 goals (CA Independiente de la Chorrera 1.47 · CD Universitario 1), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in CA Independiente de la Chorrera vs CD Universitario?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.