Football · Panama LPF · 31/08, 01:15

Prediction: Sporting San Miguelito vs Herrera FC

Team pages: Sporting San Miguelito · Herrera FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.36Total

Sporting San Miguelito1.53

Herrera FC0.83

1X2

53% 27% 19%

Sporting San Miguelito Draw Herrera FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-0 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Sporting San Miguelito 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LDLWLDLDWL

Herrera FC 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LLDLLWDLDL

Head-to-head

Sporting San Miguelito 4–2–0 Herrera FC (6 last)

Herrera FC1-1Sporting San Miguelito
Herrera FC1-3Sporting San Miguelito
Sporting San Miguelito2-0Herrera FC
Sporting San Miguelito1-0Herrera FC
Herrera FC1-1Sporting San Miguelito
Sporting San Miguelito2-0Herrera FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sporting San Miguelito 1480 · Herrera FC 1425

	Sporting San Miguelito	Draw	Herrera FC
Our model	53%	28%	19%
Market	54%	26%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 2.36 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sporting San Miguelito (rating 1480 vs 1425).
H2H favours Sporting San Miguelito: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 10.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sporting San Miguelito	Herrera FC
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.2	0.8 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.5	0.4 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3.5	2.7 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.4	6.2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.67

X3.40

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.90

2 (+0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.67	Pinn 1.72 ★
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
08:45 +3’	1.67	3.40	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
08:47 +1’	1.68	3.32	4.46
12:15 +1’	1.72▲	3.26▼	4.30▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sporting San Miguelito 4–2–0 Herrera FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/03/26 Panama LPF	Herrera FC	1-1 HT 0-1	Sporting San Miguelito
05/10/25 Panama LPF	Herrera FC	1-3 HT 1-1	Sporting San Miguelito
23/02/25 Panama LPF	Sporting San Miguelito	2-0 HT 1-0	Herrera FC
30/09/24 Panama LPF	Sporting San Miguelito	1-0 HT 1-0	Herrera FC
08/04/24 Panama LPF	Herrera FC	1-1 HT 0-0	Sporting San Miguelito
22/11/23 Panama LPF	Sporting San Miguelito	2-0 HT 1-0	Herrera FC

Standings · Panama LPF · Apertura, West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	San Francisco FC	5	3	1	1	11	8	10
2	Veraguas CD	5	2	3	0	9	7	9
3	CA Independiente de la Chorrera	5	1	3	1	7	5	6
4	CD Universitario	5	1	2	2	6	7	5
5	Herrera FC	5	1	2	2	4	6	5
6	Union Cocle	5	1	1	3	3	7	4

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sporting San Miguelito

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	CD Arabe Unido Panama LPF	0-1	0-1	6	6	L
16/08	UMECIT Panama LPF	0-0	1-0	2	6	W
10/08	Alianza FC Panama Panama LPF	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
02/08	Plaza Amador Panama LPF	0-1	0-2	3	0	L
28/07	Tauro FC Panama LPF	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
03/05	Alianza FC Panama Panama LPF	1-1	2-3	1	0	L
26/04	Tauro FC Panama LPF	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
20/04	Plaza Amador Panama LPF	0-2	0-3	5	7	L
14/04	UMECIT Panama LPF	1-0	2-2	2	12	D
06/04	CD Arabe Unido Panama LPF	0-0	0-1	2	5	L

Herrera FC

LLDLLWDLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	CD Universitario Panama LPF	0-0	0-1	4	7	L
16/08	Veraguas CD Panama LPF	2-2	2-2	5	6	D
08/08	San Francisco FC Panama LPF	0-2	1-3	3	6	L
04/08	CA Independiente de la Chorrera Panama LPF	0-0	0-0	8	3	D
26/07	Union Cocle Panama LPF	1-0	1-0	7	10	W
02/05	Union Cocle Panama LPF	0-2	0-4	5	7	L
26/04	San Francisco FC Panama LPF	1-1	1-2	3	3	L
21/04	CA Independiente de la Chorrera Panama LPF	0-1	2-2	5	3	D
12/04	Veraguas CD Panama LPF	0-1	1-2	2	18	L
07/04	CD Universitario Panama LPF	0-2	0-2	9	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sporting San Miguelito vs Herrera FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sporting San Miguelito win (53%). Probabilities: Sporting San Miguelito 53%, draw 27%, Herrera FC 19%.

How many goals are expected in Sporting San Miguelito vs Herrera FC?

The model expects 2.36 goals (Sporting San Miguelito 1.53 · Herrera FC 0.83), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Sporting San Miguelito vs Herrera FC?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.