Football · Panama LPF · 08/09, 03:00

Prediction: UMECIT vs CA Independiente de la Chorrera

Team pages: UMECIT · CA Independiente de la Chorrera

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.26Total

UMECIT1.18

CA Independiente de la Chorrera1.08

1X2

37% 30% 33%

UMECIT Draw CA Independiente de la Chorrera

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

UMECIT 1-6-3 (W-D-L)

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CA Independiente de la Chorrera 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DWLDDDDLWL

Head-to-head

UMECIT 1–3–2 CA Independiente de la Chorrera (6 last)

CA Independiente de la Chorrera1-1UMECIT
CA Independiente de la Chorrera0-1UMECIT
UMECIT1-1CA Independiente de la Chorrera
CA Independiente de la Chorrera2-1UMECIT
CA Independiente de la Chorrera2-1UMECIT
UMECIT0-0CA Independiente de la Chorrera

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · UMECIT 1443 · CA Independiente de la Chorrera 1476

	UMECIT	Draw	CA Independiente de la Chorrera
Our model	37%	31%	32%
Market	38%	29%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.26 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours CA Independiente de la Chorrera: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 10.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	UMECIT	CA Independiente de la Chorrera
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.4	1.5 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.4	0.4 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/70/10%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.1	2.3 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.4 / 0.1	5.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.38

X3.10

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 21.75

Under 22.05

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:58

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.38 → 2.38	Pinn 2.58 ★
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.70 → 2.70	Pinn 2.78

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
07:40 +18’	2.38	3.10	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
07:58	2.58	2.91	2.78

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · UMECIT 1–3–2 CA Independiente de la Chorrera

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/03/26 Panama LPF	CA Independiente de la Chorrera	1-1 HT 0-1	UMECIT
05/10/25 Panama LPF	CA Independiente de la Chorrera	0-1 HT 0-0	UMECIT
10/05/25 Panama LPF	UMECIT	1-1 HT 0-0	CA Independiente de la Chorrera
18/01/25 Panama LPF	CA Independiente de la Chorrera	2-1 HT 2-0	UMECIT
08/10/24 Panama LPF	CA Independiente de la Chorrera	2-1 HT 0-1	UMECIT
05/08/24 Panama LPF	UMECIT	0-0 HT 0-0	CA Independiente de la Chorrera

Standings · Panama LPF · Apertura, West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	San Francisco FC	6	4	1	1	15	9	13
2	Veraguas CD	7	2	4	1	11	11	10
3	CA Independiente de la Chorrera	6	1	3	2	8	7	6
4	CD Universitario	6	1	3	2	6	7	6
5	Herrera FC	6	1	2	3	5	9	5
5	Union Cocle	6	1	2	3	5	9	5

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	UMECIT	CA Independiente de la Chorrera
Veraguas CD	1-1 D	1-1 D
Tauro FC	1-1 D	1-2 L
Alianza FC Panama	0-0 D	2-2 D
Union Cocle	1-1 D	3-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 4 D 0 L	1 W 2 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

UMECIT

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/09	Veraguas CD Panama LPF	1-0	1-1	0	6	D
24/08	Plaza Amador Panama LPF	0-0	0-3	1	2	L
16/08	Sporting San Miguelito Panama LPF	0-0	0-1	3	6	L
09/08	CD Arabe Unido Panama LPF	0-0	0-0	2	8	D
02/08	Tauro FC Panama LPF	1-0	1-1	7	9	D
26/07	Alianza FC Panama Panama LPF	0-0	0-0	2	1	D
16/05	Plaza Amador Panama LPF	0-1	0-3	1	9	L
10/05	Plaza Amador Panama LPF	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
06/05	Union Cocle Panama LPF	0-0	1-1	7	4	D
03/05	Tauro FC Panama LPF	2-2	5-2	5	5	W

CA Independiente de la Chorrera

DWLDDDDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Tauro FC Panama LPF	0-1	1-2	6	10	L
23/08	Union Cocle Panama LPF	1-0	3-0	4	5	W
15/08	San Francisco FC Panama LPF	1-1	1-2	2	4	L
11/08	CD Universitario Panama LPF	0-2	2-2	2	6	D
04/08	Herrera FC Panama LPF	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
27/07	Veraguas CD Panama LPF	0-1	1-1	5	6	D
06/05	Alianza FC Panama Panama LPF	0-1	2-2	10	5	D
02/05	Veraguas CD Panama LPF	0-1	0-1	7	6	L
26/04	CD Universitario Panama LPF	1-0	3-2	4	6	W
21/04	Herrera FC Panama LPF	1-0	2-2	6	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in UMECIT vs CA Independiente de la Chorrera?

According to our model, the most likely result is a UMECIT win (37%). Probabilities: UMECIT 37%, draw 30%, CA Independiente de la Chorrera 33%.

How many goals are expected in UMECIT vs CA Independiente de la Chorrera?

The model expects 2.26 goals (UMECIT 1.18 · CA Independiente de la Chorrera 1.08), with a 54% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in UMECIT vs CA Independiente de la Chorrera?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.